Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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804
FXUS63 KGLD 242059
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
259 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon in northeast
Colorado in the post frontal upslope regime as a weak shortwave
trough ejects out of the Rockies. Instability axis will reside
along the cool side of the front located roughly along the western
and southern boundaries of the forecast area. Deep layer shear
will be 30-40kts. These parameters suggest a few severe storms
will be possible and SPC accordingly raised the risk level to
slight. Although some of the short term convective models have
backed off on their QPF the synoptic scale models still show
copious QPF this evening in the western third. Given mean 0-6km
winds of 5kts or less, slow-moving storms will be possible with
locally heavy rainfall. Some models show 3"+ in northeast
Colorado. Will carry likely pops in Colorado tapering to chance in
northwest Kansas and slight chances in southwest Nebraska where
instability is very limited. Storms should wind down after
midnight as they trek southeast and out of the local area. Some
low clouds and perhaps patchy fog will develop around sunrise
Monday morning with persistent light upslope winds and low level
moisture.

Upper heights actually rise on Monday as the ridge over the Four
Corners appears to briefly nudge northward...perhaps aided by
subsidence behind the convective complex. As a result, think
Monday will be dry during the day with the next upper disturbance
not arriving until Monday night. Temperatures will once again be
near to slightly below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The area of high pressure aloft over the southern plains retrogrades
further west over the southwestern U.S. through the work week.
Westerly flow aloft across the northern tier of states turns
northwest as a trough deepens over the Mississippi valley region
downstream of the upper ridge amplifying over the west.

Temperatures are expected to remain near of somewhat above normal
for the period. Models differ on the details, but all seem to
indicate diurnal convective activity forming late each day moving
off the Rockies and over the plains during the evening and
overnight hours. Tuesday night and Friday night still seem to be
the favored time periods for the highest possibility of
thunderstorms and rain showers across the forecast area. These
periods correspond to a couple of the stronger short wave troughs
moving across the forecast region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

At KGLD...scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop in
northeast Colorado later this afternoon and move into northwest
Kansas early this evening in response to a shortwave trough moving
out of the Rockies. A line of storms may approach KGLD early in
the evening with accompanying risk of gusty surface winds and
lesser risk of hail. After the initial line moves through winds
will subside with scattered storms continuing through about
midnight. Some low clouds may redevelop around sunrise Monday with
persistent low level upslope winds and moisture.

At KMCK...VFR expected through the TAF period. Storms are expected
to stay mainly in Colorado and Kansas and move southeast. Can`t
rule out a stray storm moving into southwest Nebraska but chances
appear low and will not mention in the KMCK TAF for now.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...024



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