Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 190524
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WATER
VAPOR...VIS...AND IR IMAGERY ALL INDICATED INCREASING CLOUDS AS A
RESULT OF THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA WAS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CLIP THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE LOWER 20S.

CLOUDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION WEDNESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE APEX OF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT AND MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...THE SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH OVER
THE PLAINS STATES IS SOUTHEASTERLY FROM THE GULF TO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. LOOKING AT THE NAM
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD...THE LOWEST 50-75MB IS AT OR
NEAR SATURATION WITH SURFACE RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 96 PERCENT
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 03Z-15Z FRIDAY. ABOVE THAT LAYER...THE ATMOSPHERE
DRIES RAPIDLY AND REMAINS DRY UP TO AND BEYOND 700MB. WITH SUCH A
DEEP DRY LAYER ALOFT AND ONLY SEEING SATURATED CONDITIONS IN A
LAYER LESS THAN 100MB DEEP AT THE SURFACE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO
WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE SERIES DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES EAST. CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF
THAT SYSTEM IS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW THAT
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
WITH A QUICK TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT TO SEE
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST ON SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AGAIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
EXITING SURFACE RIDGE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JTL


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