Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 261811
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1211 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF UPPER SUPPORT/FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WEST...50-55
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHTS WEATHER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z THEN OUT OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION...WITH
THE NAM BEING THE BOLDEST...THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY SUPPORTING SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS. THIS FEATURE ALSO MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM 850MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE LESS ROBUST IN QUICKLY WARMING COMPARED TO
THE GFS. BLENDING THE TWO PLUS BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED
GRIDS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN WYOMING BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN
SLOWLY INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY FRIDAY MORNING. A PIECE OF ENERGY
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z FRIDAY THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY MORNING. MY THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
PER 850-500MB RH FROM THE GFS/ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE EXTREME WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR COLORADO COUNTIES AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS MAY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH A LACK OF
ANY STRONG JET ACTIVITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE PROFILE LOOK
TO BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AREA WIDE...SO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...SINCE A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALREADY BE PAST THE AREA WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKY...NOT SURE THAT CAPE VALUES ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED INTO BY STORMS.
AT ANY RATE...GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SATURATED UPPER PROFILES
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.90 AND 1.20 INCHES...WHICH
IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SATURATED AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STEEP AS FRIDAY...AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE PROFILE.  THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTAIN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  WITH DRY AIR ALOFT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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