Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 191131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
531 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows the trough beginning to develop over
the western CONUS.  To the east the ridge was shifting east over the

Today southerly winds will increase through the first part of the
afternoon as low level winds mix down to the ground.  Highs will
increase some from yesterday as warm air advection continues ahead
of the approaching upper level trough.

This evening the winds will decline some as mixing ends.  A tight
surface pressure gradient will prevent the winds from becoming
light. This will cause lows to be quite warm for this time of

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Friday the highs will continue to be warmer as warm air advection
continues.  During the late morning south winds will increase as
stronger low level winds mix down to the ground.  The strongest
winds will be east of the Kansas/Colorado border.

Friday evening the winds will gradually decline as the surface
pressure gradient weakens some ahead of the approaching pre-frontal

Saturday morning the cold front will move through the forecast area.
Behind the front winds will turn to the northwest, increasing after
sunrise.  The strongest winds will be during the late morning.
During the afternoon the surface pressure gradient and low level
winds decline.

The upper level trough will move through during the day. Ahead of
the trough models have been showing a slim chance for rainfall.
However latest data shows a dry environment despite the strong lift.
As a result am expecting a dry day behind the front.

Saturday night the winds will quickly decline as the surface
pressure gradient continues to weaken.  Due to the cooler air mass
in place lows will be cooler than what the forecast area has had for
the past few days.

Northwest flow aloft will prevail on Sunday as a weak H5 shortwave
ridge moves from west to east across the region. Due to the
progressive nature of the pattern, this ridge will not linger over
the region for long and is expected to quickly disintegrate as it
moves eastward. A relatively deep trough will traverse the northern
Plains as we head into Monday, bringing another cold front southward
and into the central Plains. Lack of antecedent moisture advection
will very likely make this a dry frontal passage late Monday night
or early Tuesday morning.

The post-frontal pattern could potentially create breezy conditions
through the day on Tuesday, thus we may need to further increase the
winds in future updates. Otherwise, look for near seasonal
temperatures Tuesday through Thursday with dry weather prevailing.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 528 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light winds will become
breezy by this afternoon for KGLD then decrease this evening. KMCK
should be north of the stronger winds. Both sites will have LLWS
as the low level jet intensifies tonight.




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