Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 190945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
245 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017 upper level low pressure area currently
spinning over central Arizona is forecast to lift northeast into
central/southern Colorado by the end of the day then into western
Kansas by sunrise Monday morning. A weather disturbance per 700-
500mb relative humidity is forecast to reach the Tri-State area
ahead of the low this afternoon, exiting the area early this evening
with a large dry slot over the area. After midnight another batch of
mid level moisture moves into the western 1/3 of the area with
models having some timing issues on when it arrives. It may or may
not produce some light precipitation and for now have things dry.
South winds of 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts peak late this morning
through much of the afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions continue
this evening before decreasing after midnight as winds start to veer
to the northwest over eastern Colorado ahead of a cold front.

Other noteworthy items include fog this morning. Latest model
guidance has backed off on areal coverage compared to 24 hours ago.
Latest 00z and 06z models show saturated boundary layer moisture and
fog per visibility forecasts reaching a line from near McCook to
Colby and Leoti from sunrise through about 16z.

As far as precipitation chances today, mid level dry slot covers
much of the area limiting better chances of isolated thunderstorms
to areas east of highway 83. Precipitation chances decrease early
this evening with a dry forecast overnight.

High temperatures in the mid 60s (Flagler area) to the low/mid 70s
(highest near McCook). Low temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Record highs are possible at Burlington, Hill City and Yuma.

Monday-Monday night...clouds quickly decrease in the morning with a
clear/mostly clear sky during the night. Main weather story will be
northwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph during the day. Afternoon
temperatures in the low to mid 60s with lows in the low to mid 30s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...forecast area under west-southwest flow
aloft with 850mb temperatures warming about 10F across the area
compared to Monday. High temperatures in the low to upper 70s looks
good and would set numerous records for the date (see climate
section below). Low temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 154 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

Primary concern in the extended periods is the potential for a
winter storm to develop in the Thursday through Friday timeframe.

Wednesday: Surface trough shifts southeast, and main axis of WAA
should follow, however temps aloft remain very warm. Considering
biases and current trends we may see similar highs in our south and
east as on Tuesday with near daily records once again. Elevated fire
weather conditions are possible due to lower RH, however surface
gradient and winds aloft should be weak enough that winds should not
be an issue.

Thursday-Friday: Majority of guidance (discounting GEM) has trended
further south placing our CWA in a better position for precipitation
and a possible winter storm. There is significant disagreement on
mid level evolution even with favorable models, which impacts how
this event evolves and possible amounts. Strong cold front should
move through our CWA by late Thursday afternoon or Thursday
evening, possibly sped up by evaporative cooling under main axis
of precip as it spreads east. Based on wet bulb profiles on
GFS/ECMWF we may have a quicker transition to snow than currently
indicated (basically as precip begins rather than a delay). This
adds another layer of uncertainty to possible snow amounts and
timing of impacts.

Strongest winds will tend to be immediately behind the front
Thursday evening, however latest ECMWF could support a longer
duration of strong winds correlated with snow raising the potential
for blizzard conditions.

Regarding amounts: Even with a delayed start to snow accumulations
to the late evening period, lower end of blends would support snow
accumulations approaching advisory criteria (3") and a possible
period of blowing snow. The strongest solution (currently ECMWF)
shows a deformation zone forming and tracking across our north, and
this is associated with warning criteria amounts (6+). While GFS is
weaker on forcing and pattern is more questionable on duration of
better accumulations, adjusting for a faster transition could result
in 3-6" amounts in our north. Ground temperatures are warm, and
lower rates may struggle to overcome this initially negatively
impacting amounts. However this would have little impact if rates
are as high as whats possible, and by late Thursday night colder
air will begin to take its toll on warmer surfaces.

Confidence is increasing we will see winter weather impacts
(particularly north of I-70), however I have low confidence on how
this will unfold and what the magnitude of these impacts will be.

Saturday: Pattern should be dry with west-southwest flow developing.
This would also support lee trough development and WAA, however
colder air mass may be slower to transition east and lingering snow
pack could play a role in complicating high temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 245 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. Southerly winds
gusting toward 30kts expected by mid to late morning and will
continue through the day before decreasing and veering to the
southwest around 08z. From 09z-12z winds gradually become west-
northwest near 10kts. No precipitation expected with mainly mid to
high clouds expected.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. South winds near
10kts at taf issuance will increase toward 13kts around 17z then
gust near 30kts from 21z through early evening. After 08z winds
begin from the southwest near 10kts slowly veering to the west-
southwest at similar speeds by the end of the taf period. Mainly
mid and high clouds expected. Will have to watch the 05z-10z
timeframe Monday morning for possible mvfr/ifr cigs as nam showing
saturated low levels of the atmosphere.


Issued at 245 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday along and
west of a line from near Trenton Nebraska to Colby and Gove
Kansas. Relative humidity levels are forecast to drop below 20
percent with northwest winds gusting to 35 mph.


Issued at 245 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

Record and near record high temperatures are possible today at the
following locations:

Hill City..........73 in 2004 and previous years
Burlington.........71 in 1986
Yuma...............72 in 1986

Record and near record high temperatures are expected Tuesday
February 21st at the following locations:

Goodland...........73 in 1995 and previous years
Hill City..........77 in 1977
McCook.............76 in 1933
Burlington.........72 in 2000
Colby..............74 in 1972 and previous years
Tribune............77 in 1924
Yuma...............72 in 1982




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