Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231908

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
108 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Issued at 1128 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Update to forecast to catch trend in cloud cover over the CWA.
Currently much of central/western portions of the CWA are cloudy
to mostly cloudy...with eastern zones partly cloudy at best. Still
looking for the entire CWA to trend mainly mostly sunny during
the afternoon hrs. No other changes at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017 frontal moisture/clouds in the 850-700mb layer
hugs the Colorado front range and eastern plains through 18z before
slowly dissipating this afternoon. A batch of moisture in the 700-
500mb layer is currently moving into the area from the northwest and
is forecast to quickly exit the area by 18z leaving a sunny sky for
the rest of the day. Will have some showers/possible thunderstorms
for a few hours this morning as the disturbance moves through.
Afternoon temperatures should peak in the mid 60s to low 70s in far
eastern Colorado with low to mid 70s elsewhere. Breezy to windy
north to northeast winds this morning slowly decreasing in the
afternoon. For tonight some mid level clouds move over the area from
the west/northwest. One such batch reaches the far northwest and
northern zones around 12z and could be enough to produce a sprinkle
or two. Low temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Saturday-Saturday night...will have quite a bit of cloudiness in the
morning as a pocket of mid level moisture remains over the area
under northwest flow aloft. Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s may
be enough to support a few rain showers from the moisture generally
north of the interstate. Moisture continues to move into the area
from the northwest during the night and will have to keep a mention
of precipitation in the forecast. Low temperatures in the low to
perhaps mid 50s.

Sunday-Sunday night...will have to continue at least a slight chance
for precipitation through the period for much of the area as
northwest flow aloft continues to bring weather disturbances across
the area. High temperatures remain below normal with low to mid 70s
with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Saturday Night through Monday Night: Amplified pattern will be in
place on Saturday night and into Sunday with high pressure over the
southwestern US and a trough situated over the Great Lakes region.
This trough will gradually push eastward through the day on Sunday
and into Monday with the ridge flattening during the same time
frame. Embedded shortwaves will traverse the CWA during this time
period and slgt chc to chc PoPs reflect this in the forecast.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected Sunday and very
early on Monday with perhaps a few isolated storms Monday afternoon
and evening in the eastern half of the CWA.

Tuesday through Thursday: Upper flow pattern will become nearly
zonal as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. Embedded H5 shortwaves
will develop in the lee of the Rockies on both Tuesday and
Wednesday, giving us a chance of thunderstorms each day. Instability
will be high enough to consider a chance of severe thunderstorms as
we will have around 1500 to 2000 J/Kg of CAPE in the presence of 40
to 50 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. Another chance of thunderstorms is
possible on Thursday mainly for the eastern third of the CWA.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

For both taf sites...VFR conditions expected with SCT-BKN mid
cloud layer giving way to SKC-SCT150 by 05z-07z Saturday.
Winds...for KGLD N 10-20kts thru 05z Saturday then
light/variable. By 14z Saturday...SE around 10kts. For KMCK...NNW
10-20kts becoming light/variable by 07z Saturday.




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