Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280915
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDINESS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS DRY AIR COVERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AROUND A SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. FOR SUNDAY THE NARROW AXIS OF 850-
700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER. THERE IS
A BIT OF INSTABILITY BUT NOTHING FOR FORCING SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH 90 TO 95. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 50S TO AROUND 60/LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

H5 RIDGE SITUATED EAST TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY
WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AND SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND BRING IN MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW AND POPS REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY AS I
AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ALONG A
WEAK THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL DO SO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
AMOUNT OF SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER OTHER INSTABILITY
INDICES ARE NONEXISTENT OR EXTREMELY WEAK THUS MAKING SEVERE STORMS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REACH 12KT THRESHOLD WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS FROM
15Z-22Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD AROUND 23Z FROM THE NORTH.
FOR TONIGHT WINDS QUICKLY DECREASE BELOW 5KTS FROM THE EAST BY 03Z
AS SFC HIGH MOVES IN. AFTER 03Z WINDS REMAIN BELOW 5KTS WHILE
ATTEMPTING TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ANY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO DAYTIME HOURS
BEFORE DRY AIR AND A CLEAR SKY MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REACH 12KT THRESHOLD WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS
FROM 17Z-22Z BEFORE FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD AROUND 23Z FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. FOR TONIGHT SIMILAR TO SCENARIO AS KGLD...WINDS
QUICKLY FALL BELOW 5KTS BY 03Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ANY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO DAYTIME
HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99



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