Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240751
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY RESIDUAL
CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY MAKING INTO
INTO THE VICINITY OF GLD AND MCK BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. FEEL THE
CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE STORMS MAKING IT OVER
EITHER OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE
MENTION OF CB AND TS OUT OF THE TAF THAT FAR OUT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART






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