Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 271141
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TO REDUCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA NOW THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH
EAST AWAY FROM THE CWA TO ALLOW FOR LITTLE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS REMAINING. THIS FOCUS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THRU THE MORNING HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY EXIT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA FOR TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ONCE
MORE AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COUPLE OF
SMALLER TROUGHS THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THIS TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL BROADEN AND NEARLY
STALL AS IT WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE OF HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL FILL IN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AS
WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE
SHAPE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US AT THE SAME TIME. THIS H5 LOW WILL VERY
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PIVOTING WEAK
LOBES OF LOWER HEIGHTS AROUND THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY.
THE LOW WILL BROADEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH POPS
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MIX OF SCATTERED/BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS NNW 20-30KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS AFTER 17Z. BY
03Z TONIGHT...DIMINISHING TO 10-20KTS.

FOR KMCK...MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 00Z TONIGHT WITH 3-6SM IN SHOWERS/FOG
AND CEILINGS RANGING MAINLY OVC015-025...WITH A DIP DOWN TO OVC008
AT TIMES BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. AFT 00Z TONIGHT...BKN035-060 GIVES WAY
TO MIX OF SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS NW 20-30KTS THRU
00Z TONIGHT...THEN 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN



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