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000
FXUS63 KGLD 110845
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE FA SATURDAY EVENING
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF AROUND
06Z WITH SHOWERS THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 850
TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FA
SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES TAPER FROM HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY DOWN TO
LOW CHANCE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE UP TO AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TODAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE 40S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE
40S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF COOL BUT DRY DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE AXIS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S. BY TUESDAY THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S.
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR
MID AND LATE WEEK. GFS BRINGS A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION GRADUALLY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. ECMWF SHOWS ONLY A BROAD OPEN WAVE MOVING MUCH FASTER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
FORECAST IS LOW. WILL CARRY SOME LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY TO
PRESERVE CONTINUITY AND ACCOUNT FOR GFS SOLUTION. NONZERO MUCAPE
IS FORECAST SO WILL MENTION THUNDER...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS RATHER
WEAK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF KMCK AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AND
WILL LEAVE OUT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KGLD...SO PUT SOME GUSTS IN DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER