Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 311947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM



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