Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 252014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
114 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED VIRGA/RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FOR COLORADO THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A COUPLE OF INCHES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
PARTS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...BUT ELSEWHERE
ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET IN THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND
CHILL READINGS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 BELOW THURSDAY MORNING...SO NO
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE REQUIRED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS COOL AND SNOWY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST.  AS IT DEEPENS NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF IT OVER THE AREA.  CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH SUNDAY.  FROM MONDAY ONWARD DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN PRIOR TO MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEKEND ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT AM BEGINNING TO HAVE LESS
CERTAINTY THOSE SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THE SLOWER TRACK DUE TO THE LOW BECOMING CLOSED
OFF...WHICH MAY GIVE IT MORE TIME TO DEEPEN BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST.  HAVE NOTICED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HAS SLOWED DOWN
SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODELS SHOW THE
TROUGH CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LONGER.  IF THE
TROUGH REMAINS CLOSED OFF LONGER IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN.
CURRENT SPEED OF THE TROUGH AFTER SATURDAY MAY STILL BE TOO FAST IF
THE TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  IN GENERAL SLOWER IS
LIKELY THE BETTER SOLUTION AFTER SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS AFFECTS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

A SECOND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MODELS INDICATE A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS PART OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST...SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE REST OF THE TROUGH.  MAIN
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FLOW SPLIT WHICH WILL EFFECT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA WILL RECEIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT DUE TO THEIR LIMITED
COVERAGE NOT LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EXPECTING MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...BUT WITH A DECENT UPSLOPE COMPONENT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024


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