Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 250732
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1232 AM MST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A DRY LINE WAS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT.

TONIGHT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE...TURNING TO THE WEST BY
SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S.

CHRISTMAS DAY THE LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNSET.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY...AND WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY WARM INTO THE LOW 50S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40.  FURTHER NORTH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES NORTH OF THE STATE
LINE.

DURING THE AFTERNOON THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  OVER FAR WESTERN
KIT CARSON AND YUMA COUNTIES THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE FROM THE
SURFACE UPWARD...WITH SOME LOCATIONS NOT SATURATING UP TO THE -10C
LEVEL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.  WITH NO ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN AND SOME WEAK LIFT OVER THESE
LOCATIONS...HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO THE WEAK LIFT PRESENT...EXPECT THERE TO BE
FROZEN FLECKS OF DRIZZLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AT BEST. OVER FAR
NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY ICE CRYSTALS WILL DEVELOP SO WILL HAVE THE
PRECIP. AS ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MST THU DEC 25 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND PINCH A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MID
WEEK. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SNOW
FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. BITTERLY COLD
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY. THE COLDEST
DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW AS 10 BELOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AT BOTH
TERMINALS. LESS CERTAINTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VLIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FREEZING
FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER 00Z.
CLIMATE WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR A STRATUS EVENT WITH LIGHTER
FOG...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SATURATED LOW LEVELS
BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO REGION...AND
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP. I AM JUST NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS RANGE TO INTRODUCE ANY CONDITIONS LOWER
THAN IFR TO EITHER TAF SITE OR FREEZING AFTER 00Z...HOWEVER THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR



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