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000
FXUS63 KGLD 131528
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
928 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Update issued to adjust for changes in cloud cover wording to
have trend of becoming partly sunny by the afternoon from a
sunny/mostly sunny sky which is current over the area. No other
changes at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

A short wave trough aloft sweeps through the region this afternoon
and evening. A weak ridge moves east of the Rockies and across
the northern and central high plains region tonight and Monday
ahead of a larger scale trough that will be deepening over the
intermountain region on Monday night and Tuesday. A portion of
this trough will be lifting out across the central high plains
late Tuesday through Tuesday night.

The surface trough retrogrades back along the front range today
while dewpoints remain in the middle 60s across the eastern
sections of the forecast area along with highs in the lower to
middle 80s. This will produce an axis of increasing instability
this afternoon and evening stretching from southeast Colorado into
central Nebraska. The instability combined with good shear
profiles resulting from the southerly near surface flow and
veering winds aloft as the upper short wave trough passes over the
region will likely lead to scattered strong to severe storms
across the forecast area from late this afternoon through the
evening.

Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be slightly warmer with
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and lows in the upper 50s to
middle 60s. Afternoon dewpoints will also remain well into the
60s, especially across the eastern sections of the forecast area.
With a lack of strong forcing aloft as the ridge moves across on
Monday, expect mainly diurnally driven isolated to scattered
thunderstorms late Monday into Monday night. Expect scattered to
numerous thunderstorms to develop on Tuesday and continue into the
evening and overnight hours. There is a marginal risk of severe
weather as deepening surface low pressure moves from eastern
Colorado into western Kansas in association with the initial
trough lifting out of the broader western states upper trough.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Below to near normal temperatures are anticipated in the extended
period with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

A trough continues to push across the High Plains on Wednesday with
west to northwest flow developing for the remainder of the period as
the trough flattens. Multiple disturbances eject through the flow
over the region, generating precipitation chances. In addition to
this, a cold front pushes into the area early Thursday and lingers
nearby through the end of the forecast period. This setup will allow
for showers and thunderstorms each day. Will have a better idea on
timing and location in the upcoming days.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s during the extended,
with low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 414 AM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at GLD with
scattered thunderstorms moving across the area between 23-04Z.

MCK will intermittently see a few low clouds and patchy fog
through 14Z this morning that may produce limited IFR conditions.
After 14Z, VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of
the TAF period with scattered thunderstorms moving across the area
between 00-05Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART