Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 051959
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WEATHER WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...THEN DECLINE
SOME THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NORTHWEST
OF KGLD. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
KMCK BUT WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION IN FOR BOTH SITES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM COVERAGE/DURATION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVE IN. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN BECOME VFR BY 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL



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