Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 262130
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
230 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

The upper level flow in the atmosphere shifts to southwesterly
tonight ahead of a developing trough of low pressure near the west
coast of the country. On Monday the trough slowly moves east but
remains well west of the rockies. Closer to the sfc winds become
more southerly in direction tonight and increase into the 10 to 20
mph range with some higher gusts Monday afternoon. Models are
hinting at the potential for stratus to move into the area from the
south-southeast toward sunrise continuing north while pushing east
of the CO/KS border a few hours after sunrise then dissipating/out
of the area before noon. Otherwise expect some mid and/or high
cloudiness.

Low temperature guidance has been quite high the past few days
compared to observed low temperatures. Have trended toward the
colder guidance tonight given continued low dewpoints, fairly light
winds and little cloud cover. Looking at readings in the low teens
west to low 20s east. For Monday 850mb temperatures warm about 15f
to 18f across the area compared to today (Sunday). This would
support low to mid 60s. The better performing bias corrected grids
along with met/mav and 2m guidance are a bit cooler averaging around
50 in northwest Yuma county where some snow cover exists to the
mid/upper 50s elsewhere. Blending the two supports low 50s northwest
to low 60s far south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

Tuesday-Wednesday: Fast moving upper level trough is still expected
to move across the Plains, with main axis of forcing south of our
CWA (based on latest model trends). There is still a stronger precip
signal Tuesday evening in our far west due to enhancement and low
level moisture pooling. Despite decent lift across our CWA, moisture
advection is limited below H85 and there will be a substantial low
level dry layer in place making accumulating precipitation
prohibitive (particularly in our north). I am loosing confidence
that this layer will saturate for most locations in our CWA due to
the progressive nature of this system, but I can`t rule out some
showers or flurries. Wet bulb profiles support snow if saturation
does occur, so I stuck with clean rain to snow transition. Besides
eastern Colorado (I-70 corridor and south) where up to 1" could be
possible Tuesday evening, most locations would have little to no
accumulation. Trend has been for faster exit of precip Tuesday
night, and I matched this with precip tapering to flurries before
exiting in our southeast early Wednesday morning.

Temperatures Tuesday are still uncertain as front will be almost
completely through our CWA by midday, and increasing CAA in the
northwest combined with cloud cover could limit highs to 30s. There
is weak WAA  Wednesday, however this will really only result in near
seasonably highs (40s) or around 50 in our far east.

Breezy to windy conditions are expected behind this front Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Strongest winds should be Wednesday with mid to
upper level jet behind trough axis passing over the Central High
Plains. Gusts 35 to 40 mph couldn`t be ruled out Wednesday.

Thursday-Sunday: Westerly flow develops, and lee trough redevelops
by Friday. Highs Thursday will still be near seasonal normals due to
a weak cold front passage, while highs on Friday are back around
60F. Strongest WAA will be over the weekend when highs around 70F
are possible. This pattern will support a very dry air mass, and
despite a few weak shortwave trough passages conditions will remain
dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 905 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Winds at KGLD start from the northwest around 10kts and continue
through the day before shifting to the southeast around 01z this
evening. This continues through 05z then steadily and slowly veers
to the south near 10kts by 11z and remains southerly through the
end of the period. For KMCK winds from the west-northwest around
10kts at taf issuance continue through the day. After 02z winds
generally from the southeast to south around 5kts. Will have to
watch for possibility of stratus at KGLD in the 11z-16z timeframe
and KMCK 14z-16z as models hinting at low level moisture moving
into the area from the south.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon
generally along and south of a line from Flagler to Idalia
Colorado to Goodland and Russell Springs Kansas. In this area
relative humidity is expected to fall below 20 percent with
southwest winds gusting 20-25 mph. Have issued a Fire Weather
Watch for Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties of Colorado along with
Sherman and Wallace counties of Kansas where higher confidence in
reaching 25 mph wind gusts is expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for KSZ013-027.

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for COZ253-254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99



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