Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 290145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
745 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

Issued at 745 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Have updated forecast to add in Cheyenne county Colorado into the
Severe Thunderstorm watch until 06z Friday. Increased convection
to the west of Cheyenne county combined with convergence of the
boundary from earlier may help to funnel storms across western and
southern locales. No other changes at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The primary short term concern is the possibility of thunderstorms
and severe weather across the forecast area this afternoon and

Early morning convection spread a large area of cooler air across
the northern 2/3 of the forecast area.  Have adjusted high
temperatures downward as a result for today also since another round
of cloud cover with convection is moving into the northern sections
of the forecast area.  The area of cooler air with temperatures in
the 70s may put a temporary damper on additional convective
initiation. However, south of the cool air, temperatures are
continuing to rise into the 90s.  So somewhere between the two,
likely near the boundary stretching from northeastern Colorado to
southwestern Kansas, expect additional convection to develop this
afternoon as the ongoing convection moves into the northern sections
of the forecast area. A check of guidance earlier this morning
showed CAPE values between 3k-4k in the current vicinity of the
boundary along with shear values that would support supercell
thunderstorm development.  Peak thunderstorm activity and severe
weather is expected primarily between 21Z and 03Z with storms
expected to taper off and move out of the area after 06Z.

On Friday generally cooler temperatures are expected across the
forecast area with isolated thunderstorms possible. No severe
weather expected on Friday at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The extended period has the potential to see precipitation each day
across the region. The only day that will be different is Friday
night, where upper level northwest flow will still be over the CWA.
Precipitation chances are still possible through the overnight hours
on Friday but the greatest potential for storms will be to the south
and southeast of the region. This is because the shortwave that is
moving through the high to central plains will be over those
locations; so instabilty will be greater down there.

For the majority of the period the CWA will be impacted by a ridge.
The GFS and European agree for the most part but differ slightly
starting Monday. The GFS has a more amplified ridge, whereas the
European has a less amplified ridge (almost a zonal pattern). As of
current model runs these difference don`t show to be impacting the
CWA differently but will keep an eye on the progression as next week
approaches. As mentioned prior, precipitation chances are possible
during the afternoon into the overnight hours each day. This is due
to the inflow of moisture from the Gulf of California and Arizona
into the region. That along with embedded weak mid-level shortwaves
will help with developing some instabilty over the region. For the
most part, at this time, severe storms are not expected but isolated
strong storms are possible.

Temperatures are expected to reach into the mid to upper 90s
next week as the ridge impacts the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 528 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

For KGLD...VFR thru 06z with scattered/broken mid clouds giving
way to VCTS aft 02z. After 06z...mainly MVFR thru 16z Friday with
ceilings bkn015-025 and 3sm br 10z-16z. VFR after 16z Friday.
Winds meandering from ENE to SE thru the period around 10kts.
Gusts to 20kts are possible thru 06z Friday.

For KMCK...VFR thru 08z Friday with scattered/broken mid clouds
giving way to VCTS/SHRA by 03z. From 08z-14z MVFR with 3sm br and
ceilings around bkn025. After 14z Friday...VFR with scattered low
clouds. Winds ENE to SE around 10kts.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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