Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 041454
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

EXPIRED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH



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