Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251745
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1145 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH TEMPS
RANGING MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW LOCALES IN EASTERN ZONES
STILL NEAR 50F. SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IS PROVIDING A LIGHT WNW FLOW.

FOR TODAY....THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE ABLE TO ENJOY ANOTHER
NICE...DRY DAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 70S WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DRY CONDITIONS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT AND ON THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR THIS
STRETCH OF TIME WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN UPPER LOW THAT MODELS
WORK INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THRU THE AREA. OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...ALONG WITH RW/TRW...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SPC HAS MUCH OF THE CWA IN A GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...BUT
EXTREME NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS ARE IN MARGINAL CONDITIONS
FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE TRW. STAY TUNED.

THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS TO PLACEMENT OF AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP FOR THE REGION. OVERALL...THE
WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NNE OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING FOR PRECIP TO TAPER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WITH THE STALLING OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...QPF
DIFFERENTIAL WILL PUT HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF POTENTIAL RAIN NORTH NEAR
0.25" TO 0.40"...TAPERING SOUTH TO NEAR ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME OF THESE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH ARE GOING TO BE
LOCALLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS/MOVES.

FOR TEMPS FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...EXPECTED CLOUD COVER FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL PLAY ROLE IN HIGH/LOWS. TUESDAY/S HIGHS WILL
BE DIRECTLY CORRELATED TO FRONT POSITION AND CLOUDS ALONG IT.
SOUTHERN AREAS COULD REACH INTO THE 70S...WHILE NORTHERN ZONES
MOSTLY ALONG THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
GIVE ONLY 60S TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS REGION BEGINS TO SEE CAA BEHIND
EXITING SYSTEM ON NNW FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OFF MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE M40S TO THE M50S FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT TAPER DOWN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WILL DROP TO THE MID
30S. THIS BRINGS UP THE CONCERN FOR PATCHY FROST. WITH STEADY GUSTY
WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS...WILL
FOREGO MENTION OF IT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE OUT OF THAT REGION AND ADVANCE TOWARDS
THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI
STATE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA... WHICH MEANS THAT THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION/NORTHERN EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR MAY NOT NOT REACH
THE TRI-STATE REGION... HOWEVER... IF IT DOES IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
REACH ONLY THE SOUTHEASTERN PART. WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME... PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MOSTLY BE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THEREFORE... CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...RICH
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPS FIRST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...
EXPANDING NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL INCLUDE
KGLD. STRATUS THEN SPREADS NORTHEAST AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST. THIS IS WHEN STRATUS/FOG WILL IMPACT KMCK. DRY AIR
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS LIFTING QUICKLY AT
KGLD. FOG/STRATUS MAY PERSIST AT KMCK THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
DISTURBANCES AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RRH



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