Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 162053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
153 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 138 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

The primary weather message in the short term are the elevated
fire weather conditions over the weekend.

The overall pattern shifts across the U.S. during the next few
days. With unidirectional northwest flow aloft expected across the
region as the jet stream moves over on Saturday will produce gusty
northwest winds across the region during the day. Winds speeds
will slacken somewhat on Sunday as the upper flow transitions to a
more westerly direction with a deepening of a lee surface. The
gradient will produce more west to southwest winds that will be
stronger along the southern and southeast portions of the forecast
area with an overall dryer airmass in place across the region.

With the dry and breezy conditions not quite lining up perfectly,
feel fire weather conditions will be elevated, especially with
high temperatures in the lower 70s across a portion of the
southern CWA on Sunday, but are expected to come up a little
short on meeting criteria. We`ll be close, so this will warrant
further consideration of the next couple of periods, but will not
issue any FWX highlights at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 137 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

Going into the beginning of next week...Monday starts the region off
with another surge of arctic as a frontal boundary pushes south thru
the region during the day. H5/H7 shortwave will sweep east across
the region Monday night into Tuesday...triggering some light snow
with no accum. Surface ridge behind the front slow to shift
southward to provide warmup. Models trend in another night of cold
conditions before next warmup start for next Wednesday and Thursday.

For temps...Monday will have a wide range due to fropa with 20s
north to near 50F south. Otherwise...looking for highs to range from
20s on Tuesday...30s for the 40s for the end of the
week. Overnight lows will only be in the single numbers Monday and
Tuesday nights...teens Wednesday night to 20s for the remainder of
the forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1018 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

VFR conditions are expected for the GLD and MCK TAF sites through
the 18Z TAF period. LLWS is expected at GLD due to a combination
of the stronger pressure gradient and the shallow colder airmass
that is still present. LLWS should diminish at GLD through the
afternoon as the temperatures warm and the airmass begins to mix
along with the pattern shifting eastward that takes the high
pressure area over the plains states while the lee trough deepens
over eastern Colorado. A wind shift is expected across the region
overnight as the pattern shifts, so there is another potential for
LLWS across the region from the northwest above the surface
inversion while surface winds are somewhat slower to transition
from the south to the northwest during the early morning hours
Saturday morning.




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