Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 220558
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1158 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KDNR AND KDDC
INDICATED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITH SOME DEGREE OF A DRY PROFILE...HOWEVER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IN THE TOMORROW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG EASTERN COLORADO AND PROVIDE A PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN THE MID MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND NOT CURRENTLY THINKING SUSTAINED WINDS WILL MEET 3
HOUR THRESHOLD.  HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY
ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD FOR FIRE WEATHER...SO NOT EXPECTING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME DESPITE THE GUSTY
WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HIGHER VORTICITY VALUES BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 IN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD BE PERSISTENT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS STRONGER MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET LOOK TO REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD TRANSITION EASTWARD WITH MAIN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG
WAA AND LLJ DEVELOPING...WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVER OUR EASTERN
CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL EXPECTED MOVE
ACROSS REGION WITH DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH ACTING AS FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER OUR CWA (ESPECIALLY OUR EASTERN CWA).
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A FASTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COMPLICATES POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN AXIS OF HIGHER SURFACE TD AND
CAPE WOULD BE PUSHED FURTHER EAST ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE
SHEER PROFILES. EVEN WITH THE FASTER FRONT TIMING IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE OUR EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE AN A DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE WINDOW MAY BE SMALLER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODELS INDICATED. STILL LOOKS LIKE LARGE HAIL/WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH LCLS ARE NOT TERRIBLE BASED ON CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY FOR OUR AREA AND TORNADO POTENTIAL COULDNT BE RULED OUT.
I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SEVERE MENTION FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY ALSO BE MET
FOR THESE EASTERN LOCATIONS...AGAIN UNCERTAINTY ADDED DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE TROUGH POSITION/FRONT TIMING. VERY STRONG
PRESSURE RISES ARE ALSO ADVERTISED BEHIND COLD FRONT AND WE SHOULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE
NW TO SE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS ADVERTISED TO RETURN
DURING THESE PERIODS WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS (70S).

SATURDAY-MONDAY...PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD AS ANOTHER
SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL HELP BRING COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES
BACK TO THE REGION. THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THESE PERIODS...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE FINER DETAILS...HOWEVER AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A COOLER/WETTER PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN FACT THERE IS ACTUALLY A CHANCE WE MAY SEE A RETURN TO
WINTRY PRECIP OR EVEN A FROST/FREEZE BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE FRONT RANGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER AREA. HAVE PLACED A PROB30 GROUP INTO THE GLD TAF BETWEEN
22Z-01Z...BUT EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST AND HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE MCK TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

RFW CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE TUE...WED...AND THU...HOWEVER
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE REALLY FAVORS THU FOR BEST CHANCE OF
MEETING 3HR REQUIREMENT. ON WED CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND
GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RFW
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WITH TD VALUES INCREASING WITH FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MAY LIMIT THE WINDOW FOR THESE CONDITIONS. HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...DR






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