Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 200430

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1030 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Short term models starting to pick up on the weak shortwave trough
coming out of southern Wyoming this afternoon. CU developing in
northeast Colorado ahead of it may be the first signal that a few
isolated showers/thunderstorms will develop. Surface Tds holding
in the upper 40s for now across the region, but are forecast to
drop to the upper 30s by late afternoon, putting LCLs at around
9kft. Corresponding DCAPE values increase in northwest Kansas, so
cannot rule out an isolated wind threat near these showers and
thunderstorms through this evening before surface layer decoupling
after sunset. Isolated showers may continue through the overnight
as the shortwave continues to make its way through the area.

Brief shortwave ridging is forecast on Thursday ahead of the next
system as it approaches the central Rockies. Expecting a dry day
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Clouds will begin to
increase by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Precipitation will overspread the area from west to east Thursday
night as the shortwave trough in the central Rockies digs into the
central Plains by Friday morning. The models show a cut off low
developing over southwest Kansas and slowly moving across
southern Kansas through Saturday morning. Light rain will be
fairly widespread through the day Friday, gradually ending Friday
night. Total QPF for this system will average around a half inch.
Temperatures will be limited on Friday due to the clouds and
precipitation, with highs struggling to get out of the 40s. Cannot
rule out a little light snow mixing in on the back side Friday
night in Colorado, but no accumulation expected.

Weekend expected to be dry as upper ridge builds across the
Rockies Saturday then the High Plains on Sunday. Temperatures on
Saturday will be near normal and on Sunday above normal. Sunday
morning will be the coldest period, with lows currently forecast
in the middle 30s. Given recent greenup and new criteria for
frost/freeze headlines, might need a frost advisory (36 degrees or
below) for this time period, with freezing conditions (32 degrees
or below) possible in low lying areas of northeast Colorado and
adjacent areas of northwest Kansas, however not expecting a hard
freeze (28 degrees or below) at this time.

Upper pattern will transition to a fast, progressive flow Sunday
night through the remainder of the long term period. Several
embedded shortwave troughs will bring occasional chances for
showers and isolated thunderstorms.

First system will arrive Sunday night and Monday, but appears to
lack sufficient moisture for precipitation as forecast soundings
show a profile dominated by dry westerly flow. Accompanying
surface front has no impact on temperatures on Monday, with highs
still reaching the middle to upper 70s.

Next system timed to move across Tuesday and Tuesday night. Models
a little more optimistic on rain chances. Instability appears very
limited, a couple of hundred joules at best, so might end up being
nothing more than scattered showers. Temperatures slightly cooler
but still above normal.

Finally another system moves into the central Rockies Wednesday
and Wednesday night. It is forecast to be a large, slow moving
trough which may cut off over Colorado by Thursday morning. There
is a brief window of instability Wednesday afternoon across
western portions of the forecast area, the axis runs from Yuma to
Leoti, but it is weak. So severe threat looks minimal at this
time, but will include a mention of thunder. Clouds and
precipitation will probably hinder warming and keep temperatures
closer to normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. A
weather disturbance is currently impacting the KGLD terminal with
showers and an occasional rumble of thunder. This is expected to
continue through about 07z before moving away and dissipating.
Winds during the period generally from the north to northwest
11kts or less for both terminals. The rest of the period will see
winds steadily veer to the northeast, east then southeast at
speeds generally under 10kts. Little in the way of cloudiness for
much of the day Thursday but KGLD will see an increase in clouds
toward the end of the period and possibly see a shower approach
the terminal during the evening as the next weather disturbance
moves in.




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