Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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309
FXUS63 KGLD 271744
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1144 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Thunderstorm activity should begin to diminish during the early
morning hours as low level jet/isentropic lift shifts eastward.
Northwesterly surface winds will increase this morning behind a
trough/cold front, helping dry out the lower levels. This
afternoon, another shortwave trough will move out of the central
Rockies and into the adjacent plains. However, the environment
will be very different than the last couple of days. Instability
will be limited to only a few hundred j/kg. Storms will move out
of central Colorado in the afternoon and into northeastern
Colorado/adjacent areas by late afternoon, then move south and
diminish during the evening hours. Due to the limited instability,
no severe storms are expected. Temperatures will be slightly below
normal due to cloud cover and cooler air behind the front.

Sunday is expected to be mostly sunny under dry northwest flow.
Breezy northwest winds will continue. Temperatures will warm to
near normal... the middle to upper 70s.

Monday will be dry during the day then a chance of thunderstorms
in the evening with a weak shortwave trough in the northwest flow.
Instability once again looks quite limited, less than 500 j/kg,
and confined mainly to areas south of Interstate 70. Due to the
limited instability, no severe storms are expected. Temperatures
will be slightly above normal... in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 222 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

There are multiple opportunities for precipitation during the
extended period. Per current guidance, Tuesday is looking like the
least wide spread coverage but there are still chances for some rain
showers and isolated storms in the afternoon and evening. This is
due to a shortwave trough moving over the region.

Come Wednesday through Friday, chances for coverage of rain showers
and storms is greater. Yet, model guidance are differing in their
solutions as the week progresses. So knowing or pinpointing what
will exactly happen is difficult at this time. There is a strong
signal that the CWA will get precipitation but knowing if there will
be a severe threat is difficult to determine; especially with
instability not all that impressive. Will continue to monitor as next
week approaches.

Temperatures will be in the 70s during the period. Some locations
may reach the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. MVFR cloud deck has
been just west of KMCK this morning. GOES-R cloud heights show the
cloud deck continuing to increase through the last hour or so, so
am expecting VFR conditions for that site. KGLD should remain in
the lower clouds until 19z or 20z. Once the cloud deck increases,
will remain VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JTL



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