Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 190843
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS REGION
IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO OUR WEST
WITH A MEANDERING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER AREA. LITTLE FANFARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT OTHER THAN FOG IN NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA WHICH HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER PAST SEVERAL HOURS
WITH FRONT MOVEMENT. FOR TODAY THOUGH EXPECTING ANY REMAINING FOG TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AIDED BY WINDS INCREASING
ON BACKSIDE OF FRONT. SW FLOW OVER THE CWA WILL GIVE AREA YET
ANOTHER POTENTIAL DAY TO REACH NEAR 90F IN SOME LOCALES...BUT MAINLY
MID TO UPPER 80S.

REMNANTS OF FRONT AND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH DURING THE
COURSE OF DAY AS MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LKS REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
SFC GRADIENT DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...CREATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO REACH 35-40 MPH.

AS THE EVENING HOURS COME UPON THE TRI STATE REGION...AND MODELS
SHIFT SHORTWAVE INTO THE GREAT LKS REGION...SFC FRONT DRAPED WEST
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH. INITIALLY FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT SETTING UP ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER TOWARDS
12Z SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR RW/TRW THRU NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA...WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S TO L60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

GOING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY...SFC FRONT STILL
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD.
INITIALLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT...HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE EAST...BUT SHIFT TO ALL OF CWA AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS INTO
THE RW/TRW PROCESS. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS FOR PRECIP AFT 18Z
SATURDAY...TAPERING FROM THE NORTH AS BOUNDARY SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY 00Z SUN. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE
REGION UP INTO EASTERN COLORADO. WK 925/850MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH ESE FLOW FROM SFC RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SOME RW/TRW. SO
HAVE KEPT SL CHANCE POPS FOR SUN/SUN NGT WITH BEST CHANCES OVER
YUMA/KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES. LOW MAY TRY TO SHIFT EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT...PUTTING WESTERN KS ZONES NEAR A SL CHANCE FOR /RW/TRW
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL START IN THE LOW 80S
SATURDAY...DOWN TO THE 70S AIDED BY COOLER AIR WITH RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

MODEST UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY MONDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EVOLVES FROM A DEEP
CLOSED LOW IN/NEAR CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE ENCROACHING
ON THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN
DOMINATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY BUT INCREASING FORCING
ALOFT...STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE DAY. INSTABILITY HAS TRENDED UPWARD IN THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN IN GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTRIBUTING TO LOW/MODERATE CAPE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD
LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES CONSIDERABLY MORE COMPLICATED BY
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN GEFS
SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IS BELOW AVERAGE. THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS IT ELONGATES WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY SHIFTING NORTHEAST. BY THURSDAY BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK
CLOSED LOW FORMING AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF
HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS. WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY HAVE SIMPLY
TRENDED THE CONSENSUS/CONSISTENCY BLEND TOWARD CLIMO FOR POPS FOR A
COUPLE OF PERIODS LATE IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONVERGES ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR TO LIFT CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. FOG CURRENTLY
OVER KMCK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN IMPROVE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME
VARIABILITY IN THE VIS TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FOG BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH WHILE THE WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE SITE. MEANWHILE CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KGLD. DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY FOR BOTH SITES THEN BECOME LIGHT BY THE EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JTL


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