Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 252040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
240 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Initial concern will be brief chance of precipitation this
evening with remaining concern temperatures. Currently a shortwave
trough and associated surface feature are moving through the area.
Late this afternoon/early this evening the surface and shortwave
trough are near to just east of the forecast area. Upper jet is
nosing in from the west. Left front quadrant will be near to just
south of the area early this evening.

Little to no moisture is available below 700 mb with a lot of
moisture above 700 mb. Satellite showing that this air mass should
dry out quickly behind shortwave trough with less moisture around
when the jet gets here. Models consistent in keeping the
precipitation east and south of the area which matches the lift
mentioned in the above reasoning. Will continue to monitor trends
but plan on having a dry forecast tonight.

Will have a period of lighter winds before winds increase a little
bit later tonight. Trend has been for guidance to be a little warm,
especially the blend. So adjusted the mins down a little. Will have
plenty of sun tomorrow. However wind field becomes north to light
and variable as some cold air advection takes place. Blend maxes
have been doing well, and made no adjustments to what I was given.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Ridge axis will be situated directly over top of the CWA on Friday
with westerly flow aloft. Due to continued dry conditions and low
relative humidity Friday afternoon, there will be increased fire
danger mainly through the afternoon and into the early evening. A
fast moving cold front will push through the area late Friday
afternoon, shifting the winds northwesterly. At this time, winds
look to remain under 25 mph both before and after the front; however
the recent GFS and ECMWF trend is underestimating the wind gusts
and these may need to be adjusted accordingly.

A shortwave trough pushes into the central Plains Saturday morning,
shifting the upper flow a bit more northwesterly and flattening the
H5 ridge a bit. No precipitation is expected with this trough as the
air mass remains very dry. The ridge will recover and build once
more as we head into Sunday; however it will be pushed eastward late
in the day as a much larger area of low pressure moves into the
northern Great Basin late Sunday night and into Monday. Upper flow
will shift southwesterly as the trough approaches from the west.

Overall we are looking at temperatures through the extended that
will remain well above average. High temperatures will be in the
upper 70s and lower 80s on Friday and will fall as we head into the
weekend in the wake of the cold front. Saturday and Sunday will see
highs in the lower to middle 70s, which is around 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for late October. Temperatures will warm to near 80
degrees once more on Monday with a cold front bringing temperatures
down through the afternoon. Highs on Tuesday will be closer to
normal with lower to middle 60s expected in the wake of the cold


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

For Kgld...vfr conditions are expected through the period.
Front/surface trough currently moving through the area. Through
the afternoon the winds will shift to the north at 10 to 15 knots.
After that the winds will become light and variable until late in
the evening into the overnight hours when the shift to the west
then northwest.

For Kmck...Stratus and fog are gradually shifting. For a couple
hours ifr conditions are expected and then quickly lift to mvfr
and finally vfr by 21z. Vfr conditions will then last through the
rest of the period. Light and variable winds will become west
around 02z and then northwest/north during the overnight and
morning hours. Wind speeds are expected to be 10 knots or less
once the winds begin shifting.




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