Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251915
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
115 PM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

A quiet weather forecast with clear skies prevailing through the
short term. Gusty N-NW winds will continue for most of the
afternoon and then abruptly become light and variable around
sunset as the atmosphere stabilizes and winds decouple.

Drier air will continue to filter in from the northwest during
period as a surface high builds in from Wyoming. Excellent
radiational cooling will set up for tonight with calm winds and
dewpoints dropping into the upper 20s. Will issue a frost advisory
for later tonight for our western two tiers of counties. The
situation is a little marginal as most temperatures will hold in
the upper 30s, but low lying areas will likely drop to the 32-35 F
range resulting in patchy frost.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 114 PM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

High pressure will build in from the west beginning Monday night,
moving into Tuesday. An area of low pressure will begin to take
shape at the same time off southern California coast and start to
advect moisture into the southwestern States and the southern
Rockies. The high pressure ridge will continue moving east over the
course of Tuesday through Friday with the cut off low strengthening
and now advecting moisture up along the front range and into the
central Plains. The low will be pulled into the flow pattern as we
head into Wednesday and Thursday, moving across the CWA as a
shortwave late Thursday into Friday. Looking at chc PoPs beginning
late Thursday afternoon that will move from west-southwest to east-
northeast with the shortwave through the evening and into the
overnight hours. We will see slgt chc PoPs lingering in the eastern
portions of the CWA Friday as moisture levels remain high in the
presence of southwest flow and another weak shortwave.

Temperatures will generally be above normal for the extended period
as high pressure dominates the early portions of this time frame.
Afternoon highs will climb into the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Cloud
cover and showers/storms will determine the high temperatures for
Thursday through Saturday as highs will be in the middle to upper
70s. Dew points will increase as southwest flow brings moisture into
the region. We will see dew points in the 30s and 40s on Monday
night that will gradually increase into the 50s as Friday morning
approaches thus we will see gradually higher relative humidity
values mainly Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

VFR at both TAF sites with clear skies through the period. Gusty
NW-N winds will continue at both sites until sunset then rapidly
become light and variable for the rest of the period as surface high
pressure settles over the area and winds decouple.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Frost Advisory from 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ to 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/
     Monday for KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 7 AM MDT Monday for COZ090>092.

NE...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 7 AM MDT Monday for NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DLF



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