Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 110930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
230 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

Today-tonight...some cooler air backs into the area during the day
with 850mb temperatures dropping about 7F (west) to 13F (east)
compared to yesterday. This would support highs in the low to mid
50s which is currently advertised in the forecast. Low temperatures
in the upper teens to low 20s. Northwest winds increase into the 20
to 30 mph range with higher gusts by late morning and continue
through mid to late afternoon. The combination of the strong winds
and low humidity supports the current Red Flag Warning area (see
fire weather section below).

Tuesday-Tuesday night...should see a few more mid and high level
clouds through the period moving down from the north. Much less wind
compared to Monday with speeds around 10 mph from the northwest.
850mb temperatures warm about 5F to 10F across the area supporting
highs in the mid 50s to low 60s (warmest across the west). Low
temperatures above normal with mid 20s to low 30s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...another cold front moves through the
area with daytime winds from the northwest in the 20 to 25 mph range
with higher gusts. 850mb temperatures cool up to 6F from Tuesdays
forecast values supporting highs in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
handled well in the current forecast. Low temperatures in the mid
20s to around 30.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

For the extended period...thru Friday the models remains consistent
with amplified H5/7 ridge over the western portion of the country
with upper low/trough combo over the eastern portion of the country.
During this time frame...a couple quick moving shortwaves and their
associated surface frontal boundaries will traverse the Central
Plains...then shift east into the circulation of the upper
low/trough. With the region being so dry over the past several
days...models keep any potential moisture with these close to the
parent circulation well east of the CWA...thus dry thru Friday.

Going into Friday night and on through the upcoming weekend...a
couple successive shortwaves will move into the Pacific NW...and
across the Rockies into a more flattened H5 ridge. The track of
these systems will carry them north of the CWA...with no expected
precip to affect the region.

With the dry conditions expected...decent surface gradient will
accompany the passage of the shortwaves midweek...which will provide
the potential for windy/breezy conditions.

The persistent downslope WNW upper flow and associated surface WAA
will give the entire CWA above normal numbers thru the forecast
period. Daytime highs will range in the upper 40s thru the 50s with
overnight lows mainly in the 20s. The passage of the midweek
shortwaves will allow for re-enforcement of colder air over the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 230 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Both terminals will see northwest winds gusting near 40kts during
the day decreasing quickly by sunset. For the overnight hours
winds begin from the northwest 10kts or less backing slowly to the
west by the end of the period at similar speeds. Variable
cloudiness is expected at both terminals at all levels of the


Issued at 230 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

A Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions is in effect
today for all but Red Willow, Decatur, Norton, Sheridan and Graham
counties. Those not in a warning will have near critical fire weather
conditions. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged across the entire

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday
generally west of a line from near Yuma Colorado to Leoti Kansas.


KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 5 PM
     MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for KSZ001-002-013-014-

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 5 PM
     MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for NEZ079-080.



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