Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 272354
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
454 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE REGION LIES UNDER
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN SPOTS...WITH TEMPS IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST SPOTS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE FRONT
RANGE AND BROAD H5 RIDGE MOVING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AIDING IN
BRINGING RECORD NUMBERS TO THE REGION. SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT...TRAVERSING
THE CWA GOING ITO WEDNESDAY AS H5 FLATTENS...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL
FLOW. LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING SHORTWAVE ON THE DOORSTEP OF OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 09Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRAVERSE AREA THRU
THE DAY. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW WINDS MIXING DOWN
FROM THE 750-800MB LEVEL FROM 12Z-21Z WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK WIND
POTENTIAL 40-45MPH AFT 18Z. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO WILL KEEP IN. GRADIENT DOES SLACKEN AS TROUGH SHIFT
EASTWARD BY 00Z THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GO THRU DRY WITH LACK OF
ANY MAJOR RH FEED WITH RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY WITH NUMBERS RANGING NEAR 60F WEST...TO
THE MID 65S IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT LEAST
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE CLEAR SKIES WITH RIDGE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING
SOME MOISTURE STARTS MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN FA
BUT IS MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  THE MOISTURE PROFILE IMPROVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO AROUND 30 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH ON SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.  ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

DECENT MOISTURE AND SOME LIFT FROM SHORTWAVES AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LOW HOWEVER IS STILL FAR REMOVED FROM
THE AREA OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FA
SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TUESDAY.  POPS WILL
BE NIL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO 10-12KT AFTER
09Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
OVER BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTY WINDS THEN PREVAILING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR



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