Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250805

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
205 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Mid-afternoon visible satellite imagery shows a line of scattered
convection forming along a surface wind shift/convergence zone
stretching from Merriman Nebraska to just west of Sidney to Fort
Morgan Colorado. Guidance suggests activity will remain isolated
this evening with most if not all activity remaining northwest of
the forecast area. Only the HRRR is persistent with recent runs
bringing convection into Yuma county before dissipation this
evening. SPC mesoscale analysis still shows capping in the mixed
layer instability field there. That, coupled with a weak steering
flow from the southwest and forecast little movement of the
convergence line suggests convection may ultimately stay just
northwest of the forecast area which is reflected in current

Tuesday looks hot and dry but heat indices will remain below
advisory levels. High temperatures will range from 95 to 100
degrees.  The upper ridge over the central High Plains will weaken
and flatten out a bit Tuesday into Wednesday as a short wave trough
in mid levels moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains. This
feature will initiate convection along a surface lee trough/dryline
in Colorado Tuesday afternoon which will continue Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017

During the extended period an upper level ridge amplifies over the
Rockies creating a strong northwesterly flow aloft over the region.
The 700mb level shows significant amount of moisture over the local
area. Additionally, a series of shortwave troughs are expected to
move within this upper level flow, resulting in a chance of showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening for the period.

Temperatures during the extended area anticipated to be near


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Vfr conditions are expected for most if not all of the period. For
Kgld, south winds of around 12 knots will continue until mid
morning. At that time the winds will increase to near 18 knots
with gusts to around 26 knots. Near sunset the winds will decrease
to near 13 knots with gusts to near 22 knots and continue through
the rest of the evening.

For Kmck, south winds near 11 knots will continue the first half
of the period. From now until 13z there will be low level wind
shear. Late in the morning the south winds will increase to near
15 knots with gusts to near 23 knots. This last to near sunset
when the wind shifts more to the southeast and decreases to around
12 knots.

Thunderstorms are expected to be in the area during the last six
hours of this forecast. However since so late in the period and
some timing differences in model output, no mention of
thunderstorms has been inserted at this time and will be fine
tuned the closer it gets to the onset.




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