Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 241911
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
111 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 222 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016
Upper low is now centered over southern Wyoming, with leading edge
of forcing (associated with jet streak) over western
Nebraska/Kansas. Subsidence/deep dry air is building eastward around
the southern part of upper low into our western CWA. At the surface
a cold front is already moving towards the Colorado border and
should be through our CWA by sunrise.
Today-Sunday: As upper low continues to shift towards the northern
plains large scale subsides as a result of ridging in the west will
spread eastward. Dry conditions should prevail after
showers/thunderstorms exit eastward this morning. Temperatures today
will be near seasonal normals in the 70s to near 80F. A secondary
surge of CAA will occur late tonight and Saturday morning. This will
bring below normal temperatures around 70F for Sunday.
Ideal radiational conditions Sunday night will support at least
patchy frost across our western CWA and along low spots in SW
Nebraska. A freeze may occur at a few locations in eastern Colorado.
Ultimately we may need to consider a frost advisory if trends hold.
Rising heights with strengthening ridge will support slightly warmer
temperatures Monday and Monday night. There could still be a few
locations in eastern colorado dropping to the mid 30s Monday
night, however most locations should be in the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016
Northwest flow aloft continues into Sunday night and Monday morning
as a trough moves eastward and out of the region. High pressure will
build in from the west with dry weather expected Monday through
Wednesday. We will see a quick rebound in temperatures as this high
pressure fills into the region with daytime highs in the lower 80s.
Overnight low temperatures will be relatively cool Sunday night with
lows in the upper 30s and patchy frost. For Monday night through
Wednesday night, we will see lows in the 40s and 50s.
H7 shortwave trough will approach the region along the western edge
of the retreating high pressure system as we head into Thursday. Chc
PoPs are in the forecast as we will see showers and thunderstorms
develop along a weak theta-e boundary that takes shape during the
afternoon and evening. Instability at this time seems weak; however,
we will need to monitor for the possibility of stronger storms as
future data is made available. PoPs linger into Friday as the
boundary will be move very slowly east and northeastward.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016
VFR at both TAF sites through the period. Mostly clear skies this
afternoon/evening with light and variable winds. A cold front will
arrive around 05Z shifting winds to northwest at 15 kts. No other
significant weather is expected to accompany the front. Sunday
morning winds will become gusty from the north at 20-25 kts.