Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
317 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

The upper low over the northern Rockies will move across the
northern plains today. The associated surface low is located over
northeast Colorado this morning, with a warm front extending
eastward generally along I70 and a cold front south along the
Kansas and Colorado border. Low clouds and areas fog/freezing fog
have been developing along and north of the warm front overnight.
Radar returns have been mostly in the form of virga with no
reported precipitation reaching the ground. The surface low will
track along I70 this morning with surface winds becoming north to
northwest and becoming breezy. Light precipitation will be
possible along and north of the track of the low. Moisture is
shallow and saturation in the dendritic layer generally less than
50% except for southwest Nebraska where moisture is a little
deeper. This will result in a wintry mix of light precipitation
today, but changing to light snow tonight with the wraparound. Any
accumulations of ice and snow will be light and not anticipating
any highlights at this time. The light snow may linger into
Wednesday morning along and north of I70 before finally ending by
midday. Skies will gradually clear by Thursday which will be dry
under northwest flow. Temperatures will be below normal through
the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 216 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

Northwest flow will prevail through much of the extended period as
high pressure builds in the western States and a deep trough remains
planted in northern Quebec. A fast moving transverse wave will
traverse the western periphery of this trough on Sunday. Previous
model runs are persistent with a dry forecast with the passing of
this trough; however, recent runs are suggesting the possibility of
low PoPs for Sunday. Will need to monitor future runs for
consistency and with the trough so far removed, it is unlikely to
see any significant precipitation chances with this feature.
Beyond Sunday, the pattern will become more progressive and start to
become somewhat zonal over the southern US with a building ridge in
the Intermountain West and the continued trough in the east.

Temperatures will slowly moderate Friday through Monday with near
average temperatures Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will reach
the middle 40s to lower 50s Sunday and Monday which is slightly
above the seasonal average.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1019 PM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru 13z Tuesday as sct250 drops to
bkn060 with approach of weather system. Some light freezing
drizzle is also possible during this time. From 13z-19z...MVFR
conditions with ceilings around bkn020 and 3sm with freezing
drizzle/fog...especially 13z-16z. From 19z onward conditions
return to VFR with ceilings rising near bkn050. Winds WSW around
10kts thru 13z Tuesday....then becoming NW 10-20kts...with gusts
to 30kts after 19z.

For KMCK...VFR conditions with scattered high clouds thru 08z
Tuesday...then shifting down thru 23z to a MVFR/IFR mix with
ceilings ovc003-015 and visibility 1-3sm in freezing
drizzle/fog...especially before 16z. After 23z Tuesday...VFR w/
skies ovc035. Winds ENE thru 12z Tuesday...then shifting to NW
5-15kts...with gusts 20-30kts from 18z onward.




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