Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240552
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1152 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY PARKED OVER THE CWA IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT AND BE PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST MOVES INLAND. ULTIMATELY, THAT
UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
REPOSITIONING ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE.

THE WARMEST PERIOD WILL BE THU-SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100. BY SUNDAY...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN A COOLER PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING THURSDAY EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL START BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALSO
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. STORMS
WILL ULTIMATELY MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING OVER
FAR NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ON TOP OF AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY MAKING INTO
INTO THE VICINITY OF GLD AND MCK BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. FEEL THE
CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE STORMS MAKING IT OVER
EITHER OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE
MENTION OF CB AND TS OUT OF THE TAF THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART





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