Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 260937
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
237 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 237 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017
Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are mainly clear
with only some SCT-BKN mid level clouds moving east along the KS/NE
border. Temps are ranging from the teens over western zones...up to
the lower to mid 20s over eastern locales.
For today and on through Monday...H5 zonal flow over the region will
give way to a transition to H5/H7 flow turning more SW out ahead of
a trough coming off the west coast and into the Rockies. Through
Monday as a result...will expect dry conditions to ensue for the
entire area. The switch from zonal to SW flow at 500/700mb will
provide the area a warming trend over the 2-day period with highs in
the 40s Sunday...and into the 50s by Monday. Overnight lows Sunday
night will see a range of mid teens to the lower 20s...warmest east.
Going into Monday night and on through Tuesday night...the focus for
the area will be the increased cloud cover and chance for
precipitation as trough and associated surface low/front move off
the Rockies and into the Plains region.
Models shift surface feature out across the area late Monday night
into Tuesday...followed by 700 mb trough late Tuesday into Tuesday
night. The upper level trough will track across the CWA versus a
track to our south for surface low/front. The timing of these two
systems into the Plains region will end up with a split in initial
precip over the CWA...with extreme western zones and extreme
southern zones starting off then overspreading the CWA Tuesday night
as the trough traverse the CWA. Temps warm enough initially to start
p-type off as light rain...but as upper trough pushes east...colder
air behind it will transition p-type over to light snow. Movement of
trough and limited qpf will keep any snow accum to a half inch or
Looking for overnight lows Monday night mainly in the 20s...give way
to highs on Tuesday in the 40s to low 50s despite increasing clouds.
CAA wrapping into the area behind the exiting trough will drop
locales back into the 20s Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017
For the extended period a predominant W-NW flow aloft along with a
building surface high will support a return of dry conditions to the
region. Above normal temperatures are expected over the upcoming
weekend. With reasonably good consistency on a lee trough deepening
by Friday and a rise in the temperature aloft... we may see highs
reach near 70 (or warmer) by Saturday.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1039 PM MST Sat Feb 25 2017
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period at MCK and GLD. The
scattered to broken high clouds moving across the region this
evening will move out of the area overnight with mostly clear
skies after 10Z. Light and variable winds will become light west
northwest between 10Z-14Z and will turn southeast between 00Z-02Z.