Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270930
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
330 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 327 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Upper level ridge remains in place across the western US with NW
flow across the plains this morning. A shortwave trough is currently
moving along KS/OK border, with subsidence (apparent on WV
imagery) is in place over most of our CWA. Stalled front on western
and southern extent of surface high pressure remains just south of
our CWA over SW Kansas and SE Colorado.

This morning: Continuing to monitor fog potential with east southeast
flow feeding good moisture in the boundary layer north of stalled
front. Models currently have best overlap across our east, but I
can`t rule out fog most places, particularly near frontal zone where
moisture pooling along edge of developing stratus could lead to
denser fog to develop. Added patchy fog mention most of CWA, with
improvement quickly after sunrise due to increased mixing and change
in air mass as front lifts north. I can`t rule out a few showers or
even an isolated thunderstorm early this morning, with good elevated
instability in place and elevated frontal zone extending north.
Subsidence overspread on west will play a role in limiting the window
for this, and currently short range guidance shows this threat only
lasting a few hours before sunrise.

Today-Tonight: Better chance should be this afternoon/evening as
another shortwave trough flattens the ridge and transitions across the
plains through tonight. By this afternoon we should see surface
trough developing towards the CO border, while a cold front
approaches from the north. Temperatures will increase well into the
90s ahead of this front, and we may see some locations reach the
upper 90s. Developing westerly flow could result in deeper dry air
advecting over our CWA, but this will also aide in increasing strong
wind potential due to dry air entrainment/precip loading potential.
Severe indices look good for hail and wind, and adequate deep layer
shear could support supercell and at least a elevated tornado
threat particularly near pre-frontal trough/frontal zone in the
north.

Wednesday-Thursday night: Progressive pattern remains in place with
series of shortwave ridges/shortwave troughs. There will be a severe
weather threat almost every afternoon/evening with atmosphere
reloading between shortwave trough passages. A stronger cold front
approaches the region Thursday and should be through our CWA by late
Thursday night. Severe indices are good both days, and while
coverage/location could be question marks confidence is high in
severe threat. Seasonably warm temperatures are expected through
these periods with highs averaging near normal values (upper 80s),
lower 90s on the warm end.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Friday: Cooler daytime temps and drier conditions behind the cold
front for this period. Highs predominately in the low 80s. Only a
slight chance of storms in extreme NE portions of the CWA overnight.
Lows near normal.

Saturday: NW flow aloft with an embedded series of shortwaves will
bring the area a chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon and
through the overnight. Temps will continue to run a little below
normal for this period.

Sunday: This looks to be the most active day of the extended time
frame. Cold front lifts back into the area as a warm front and will
provide lift at the surface for storm formation. Combined with a
shortwave trough moving into the area, will have the potential for
strong to severe storms. 0Z GFS soundings showed MUCAPE around 3700-
4000 J/kg, 0-6km bulk shear of 60-65 kt, DCAPE above 1500 J/kg, and
SHIP near 2.5 areawide. There will be some CIN, but any storms that
are able to form would have a good chance of being severe in this
type of environment, with all severe modes possible. Being Day 6 in
the forecast, there`s plenty of time to see what evolves and the
forecast will most likely be modified as we go forward in time. Just
something to keep an eye on at this time.

Monday: This period looks to be dry, except for a slight chance of a
shower or thunderstorm overnight. Temperatures should be near normal.

Looking beyond the period...Right now, long range models show a
slight chance of showers during the morning for Independence Day,
with the rest of the day being dry and highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at GLD and MCK through the period.
There will be a few low clouds around sunrise that should
dissipate by 14Z. By 17Z south winds increase and become gusty and
CU will start to develop across the area with isolated to
scattered storms moving across the region between 23Z-04Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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