Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 162339
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
439 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 138 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

The primary weather message in the short term are the elevated
fire weather conditions over the weekend.

The overall pattern shifts across the U.S. during the next few
days. With unidirectional northwest flow aloft expected across the
region as the jet stream moves over on Saturday will produce gusty
northwest winds across the region during the day. Winds speeds
will slacken somewhat on Sunday as the upper flow transitions to a
more westerly direction with a deepening of a lee surface. The
gradient will produce more west to southwest winds that will be
stronger along the southern and southeast portions of the forecast
area with an overall dryer airmass in place across the region.

With the dry and breezy conditions not quite lining up perfectly,
feel fire weather conditions will be elevated, especially with
high temperatures in the lower 70s across a portion of the
southern CWA on Sunday, but are expected to come up a little
short on meeting criteria. We`ll be close, so this will warrant
further consideration of the next couple of periods, but will not
issue any FWX highlights at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 137 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

Going into the beginning of next week...Monday starts the region off
with another surge of arctic as a frontal boundary pushes south thru
the region during the day. H5/H7 shortwave will sweep east across
the region Monday night into Tuesday...triggering some light snow
with no accum. Surface ridge behind the front slow to shift
southward to provide warmup. Models trend in another night of cold
conditions before next warmup start for next Wednesday and Thursday.

For temps...Monday will have a wide range due to fropa with 20s
north to near 50F south. Otherwise...looking for highs to range from
20s on Tuesday...30s for Wednesday...to the 40s for the end of the
week. Overnight lows will only be in the single numbers Monday and
Tuesday nights...teens Wednesday night to 20s for the remainder of
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 424 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld, south
winds near 15 knots with gusts to near 23 knots will continue
until 02z. At 02z the south winds will be in the 9 to 13 knot
range. These winds continue until 08z when the winds shift to the
west at 11 knots. Low level wind shear will be in place from 02z
to 14z. At 14z those winds become west northwest as they increase
to 14 knots. At 17z those winds become northwest near 22 knots
with gusts to 30 knots. At 22z the winds will lose their gusts and
decrease to near 10 knots.

For Kmck, south winds near 11 knots will continue until 06z. From
06z to 10z those winds will be near 8 knots as they shift from
southwest to west. Low level wind shear will also be in place from
06z to near 15z. At 16z the winds will become northwest at 18
knots with gusts to near 25 knots. Those winds lose their gusts as
they decrease to near 10 knots.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER



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