Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 161203

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
603 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Heavy showers have moved out of the area, so have dropped the
flash flood watch.

Spotty showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move
across the forecast area today and into the plains states tonight
as the surface low and cold front move east and the associated
upper trough lifts out of the central Rockies this morning and
over the plains states tonight.

The forecast area will be between system tonight and Thursday
morning with westerly flow aloft, so no precipitation is
expected. By Thursday night, a short wave trough moving through
the northwest flow aloft moves across the region assisting in the
development of a weak surface trough that also moves east across
the area Thursday night. An extensive line of showers is being
depicted by the models extending north to south through the high
plains that sweeps across the region ahead of the surface trough.

Friday and Friday night will be dry and warmer as a short wave
ridge moves east of the Rockies and across the high plains.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

The extended period will start out with a west-southwest upper level
flow through Monday night and Tuesday morning. Then the flow will
become northwesterly as a upper level ridge builds over the Rockies
and a longwave trough deepens into the Plains. This pattern will
produce warmer and drier conditions, than what the region saw the
last few weeks, over the weekend. Tuesday a frontal boundary is
expected to move through the local area. This pattern is pulling
moisture into the region from the southwest and with the boundary
looking to impact the region on Tuesday, there is a chance of
precipitation every day through the period.

Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be near to slightly
above normal over the weekend then become slightly below normal on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will remain in the lower


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Isolated to scattered showers will linger behind a cold front
that moved across the region overnight. Showers will dissipate as
they move eastward across the region this afternoon.

GLD will start out IFR and improve to VFR conditions after 16Z as
the lower clouds and ceilings begin to dissipate. VFR will
continue through the remainder of the TAF period with gusty north
winds through the late morning and afternoon and skies becoming
mostly clear after 00Z.

MCK is expected to remain VFR through the TAF period, although
there are some lower ceilings in the area that may briefly bring
conditions to MVFR between 13-17Z. Skies will become mostly clear
after 22Z.




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