Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 210905
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
305 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

500MB LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. SBCAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY LOW...ONLY AROUND 10KTS.
AS A RESULT...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NON-SUPERCELL
TORNADO COMPOSITE INDEX FROM SPC DOES SHOW SOME NONZERO VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF LANDSPOUT THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30MPH BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY (HIGHEST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS MID 30S TO 40 WEST...LOW
40S EAST.

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 60S TO LOW 70S GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE A BIT MORE AGREEMENT IN THE SPEED
OF THIS DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BUT STILL LACK AGREEMENT
IN THE INTENSITY...WHETHER ITS AN OPEN TROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF OR
CLOSED LIKE THE GFS. WE SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CATEGORY. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES. HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THUNDER CHANCES
AS A RESULT. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AS UPPER
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HAVE AGAIN LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF IS TO HAVE SOME TYPE
OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE SATURDAYS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S PRODUCE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A GENERAL
LACK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT A MODEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 06Z WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE AFTER 10Z FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND BEGIN TURNING TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING WITH THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS BELOW 20
PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO ALL BUT CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO...GREELEY
AND WICHITA COUNTIES OF KANSAS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99






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