Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 241134
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
534 AM MDT WED AUG 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016
As of 4 am CDT, 3 am MDT, skies across the Tri-State Region are
overcast. Temperatures range from the upper 50s in northeast
Colorado to near 70 in parts of northwest Kansas. Winds are
generally light and variable. However, an outflow boundary is
providing temporary winds from the west for locations east of
Highway 25. Latest WSR-88D radar imagery indicates a band of light
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms moving north along the
Colorado border. At the surface, a trough of low pressure extended
from southeast Colorado, across central Kansas, and north toward the
Canadian border. Aloft, an upper level trough is progressing slowly
east from the Four Corners region. It is this trough of low pressure
that will bring the Tri-State Region precipitation chances today.
For today through tonight, an upper level disturbance is forecast to
move across the High Plains. This disturbance should bring scattered
showers, perhaps an isolated storm or two. Overall, instability is
quite poor today in a post-frontal airmass and dry air advecting in
from the north. This dry air is problematic to today`s precipitation
chances and thus leads to a somewhat uncertain forecast. Am more
certain of precipitation chances this evening. High-resolution
guidance members suggest an area of showers and storms developing
over southeast Colorado, sliding northeast across western Kansas
this evening and tonight. With instability remaining quite low, do
not anticipate any severe weather. A strong storm or two, capable of
small hail, can not be ruled out due to the strength of upper level
forcing and development of a low level jet to assist updrafts.
A quiet weather day appears in store for tomorrow in the wake of
today`s passing upper level trough. A few showers/storms may be
ongoing tomorrow morning across northwest Kansas but anticipate
these to quickly slide east by late tomorrow morning. Persistent
cloud cover may keep temperatures cool throughout the day,
particularly along and south of I-70. Made an adjustment to high
temperatures to lower them due to the expected cloud cover.
Precipitation chances return once again late tomorrow night through
Friday night as the next upper level disturbance swings through.
Current guidance indicates higher instability and higher lapse rates
than today/tonight`s system. Therefore, decided to forecast mainly
thunderstorms rather than showers with isolated thunderstorms.
Atmosphere still leaves much to be desired for potential severe
weather. Thus, am not presently anticipating any severe weather.
For tomorrow night/Friday morning, fog may be the bigger story in
terms of hazardous weather. According to mixing ratios, a strong
moisture surge is expected from the southeast. As boundary layer
moisture increases and temperatures cool, am expecting fog and
stratus development. Am somewhat uncertain on fog potential at the
moment due to concerns about radiational cooling potential. For now,
mentioned patchy fog in the forecast but would not be surprised if
some areas of dense fog are realized.
Friday`s temperatures will be impacted by any lingering fog/stratus
from the morning hours. Do expect cloud cover to persist across
locations east of the Colorado border and north of I-70. Therefore,
decided to lower high temperatures from Superblend guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016
Unsettled weather is anticipated during the long term, with
thunderstorm chances nearly persisting throughout.
At the start of the period, upper level high pressure continues over
the southeastern CONUS while a trough enters the northern Plains,
bringing southwesterly flow aloft to the region. On Saturday, the
trough advances towards the Upper Midwest, generating thunderstorm
chances for the area as southwest flow filters monsoonal moisture
northward. Upper level ridging builds in behind the system as it
passes off to the east Sunday through Tuesday. Precipitation chances
persist throughout the rest of the extended, yet decrease as heights
rise, with the ridge bringing drier conditions to the area midweek.
Temperatures remain fairly constant during the period, with highs in
the 80s and lows in the 50s to low 60s.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 534 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016
VFR conditions forecast through at least this evening at both TAF
sites. A few showers have developed this morning near KGLD. These
showers are moving north and should not impact KGLD beyond the
next 2 hours. Low level dry air should prevent showers at KMCK.
Additional showers/storms should develop over western Kansas this
evening, tracking northeast toward north central Kansas. As of
right now, it appears that most precipitation should remain south
of TAF sites. A moisture surge is forecast late tonight. Stratus
seems probable as boundary layer moisture increases. Could see
stratus impact KGLD by the end of the period, 12z tomorrow.
Anticipate north winds to persist through the forecast period.