Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 210531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1031 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

Expect to see very light snow and rain lift out across the
forecast area during the remainder of this afternoon and evening
as the surface low center continues to spin into the central
plains and the associated upper trough lifts out over Iowa by
Saturday morning. A short wave ridge moves over the forecast area
briefly early Saturday in the wake of the exiting upper trough,
and another surface low center forms quickly over the panhandle
region on Saturday in advance of a stronger upper trough moving
through the southwest U.S. and approaches southern Rockies.

Rain and snow will end across the forecast area by midnight with
moisture becoming more limited after 06Z tonight. This will bring
warmer and dryer conditions to the forecast area early on
Saturday with a light westerly flow that turns more northeasterly
through the day as the next surface low develops.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

The beginning of the extended period will start off dry with normal
temperatures. As early next week approaches there is a storm system
that is going to move through the High Plains. This will bring
precipitation chances to the region.

Saturday night has a trough moving through the region, with the main
cut off low south of the CWA. Little to no precipitation is expected
from this system. There could potentially be a small area of
rain/snow in our far southern counties.

Sunday through Monday afternoon have a ridge over the region. Dry
conditions are expected with increases in winds Sunday afternoon as
upper level northwest flow moves over the area. Late Monday
afternoon will start to see the eastern edge of the next storm
system (which will continue through late Tuesday night). Once the
trough begins to push into the CWA, southwest flow will begin to
bring moisture into the CWA. Guidance over the past few days has
trended the trough more and more north. A cut off low is expected to
form just east of the Rockies and since the system looks move more
north, high precipitation chances are diminishing. There is still
potential for rain and snow chances over the majority of the region,
but the current forecast only shows measurable snowfall over the
northernmost counties in the CWA. This system will need to be
monitored as early next week approaches

Wednesday and Thursday will continue to be under a deep trough. This
will keep high temperatures down in the 30s; dry conditions are
expected. Friday will see a change in upper level flow as a large,
amplified ridge moves east and brings north, northwest flow to the
region. This will help bring temperature back to normal.

Temperatures for the period will be normal Sunday and Monday with
high temperatures in the 40s. Tuesday through Thursday will drop into
the 30s, possibly lower depending on the exact track of the low and
snowfall. This is due to the previously mentioned trough and
precipitation that is showing to impact the region, as well as a
cold frontal passage on Monday night/Tuesday. Friday will increase
back into the 40s for the majority of the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1028 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Some
patchy low clouds may briefly impact the terminals overnight with
ceiling reductions perhaps as low as MVFR. Surface winds will be
mainly out of the west to northwest overnight behind a cold front
moving through, then becoming light Saturday morning then increasing
slightly Saturday afternoon from the east as the surface high moves




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