Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 222002
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
202 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

19Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large 597 ridge
centered over eastern New Mexico. WSR-88D KGLD noted small
vorticity center embedded with the morning showers, which
continued to move to the east. At the surface, weak surface
trough/convergent area was noted across eastern cwa extending into
central KS.

Two main concerns for the short term will be ongoing heat and
thunderstorm chances. A weak elevated cap this morning allowed for
scattered storms to develop with rather weak forced ascent.
Similar pattern in store for this afternoon as CU field developing
near higher terrain, but not seeing any organized sfc features to
focus storms on. Convection allowing models have been struggling
with the pattern so overall confidence in evolution is low. A few
storms will form off the higher terrain and push east tonight but
with winds aloft weak and shear minimal not expect to see a lot
of organization. Another round of elevated storms possible tonight
along edge of H7 thermal ridge. Relatively strong WAA develops
across MCK and NRN area and maintains itself for several hours.
Looks like a good chance for LFC`s to be reached in this area and
do not see a reason why a storm or two wont from after 06z.

For Saturday...Cold front will work its way across Nebraska
through the day. While cooler air will likely remain to the north
through the day, surface trough ahead of front may provide area
for potential convective initiation. Instability should be
favorable for severe weather, but wind shear rather weak in warm
humid airmass south of front/trough. Given persistent near sfc
convergence and instability think thunderstorm chances look good,
but with weak shear do not expect to see a lot of storm
organization.

For the heat, already seeing 105 heat indices across advisory area
today so will let things stand as is. For tomorrow, looks like
dewpoints will dry out a bit during the afternoon but with temps
remaining around 100 will see some borderline heat index values
across a portion of the area. With the heat continuing, will
slightly expand current advisory for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Thunderstorm chances continue in the long term period. Somewhat
cooler temperatures are anticipated after the passage of a cold
front over the weekend.

Saturday night: A cold front moves into the region Saturday evening
and begins to stall as a shortwave trough slowly advances over the
northern Plains. The front is anticipated to generate thunderstorms
in the region during this period. With instability present, a few
strong to severe storms will be possible.

Sunday and Sunday night: Guidance suggests precipitation chances
linger into Sunday for far eastern portions of the area with the
cold front stalled over northern Kansas into eastern Colorado. At
this point, flow is generally westerly aloft as high pressure
remains over the southwestern CONUS and the trough progresses across
southern Canada. Should see a lull in precipitation midday before
thunderstorm chances ramp up once again in the afternoon/evening
when weak waves pass through the flow. There is a potential for
isolated severe weather along and north of the front. With the ridge
broken down by shortwaves and a the front through the region, some
relief from heat is expected with high temperatures in the upper
80s to mid 90s.

Monday and Monday night: The ridge appears to strengthen over
western CONUS as disturbances pass through. Cannot rule out
afternoon/evening thunderstorms during this timeframe. Temperatures
appear to cool slightly into the low 90s.

Tuesday through Friday: Flow aloft is generally west/northwest with
zonal flow across the northern half of the country and high pressure
retreating further west midweek. Disturbances are anticipated to
pass along the northern periphery of the high pressure and across
the High Plains. Precipitation chances persist throughout the period
with better chances for precipitation on Tuesday when a stronger
wave impacts the region. Temperatures stay warm, mainly in the low
to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

With warm and humid airmass and periods of weak forcing...overall
confidence in forecast specifics fairly low. A few thunderstorms
will be near KGLD around 01z...with second round of elevated
storms possible after 6z at MCK. Confidence too low to bring down
any flight categories and if storms do form...cloud bases will be
at or above 050.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ002>004-015-016-029.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ014-028.

CO...NONE.
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ080-081.

     Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JRM


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