Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 221813
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1213 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL BE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. NEAR TERM
MODELS SHOWING A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD/POOR RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WHICH WILL LIMIT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN UPCOMING
EVOLUTION OF PATTERN. WITH STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE
ROCKIES STARTING TO SEE WEAK SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN WAA
PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALTHOUGH DNR SOUNDING INDICATES
PW VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL (AROUND 200 PERCENT). SPOTTY NATURE OF
SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ARE GOING TO INHIBIT EFFICIENT
PRECIP PROCESSES FOR THE TIME BEING. WILL FINE TUNE FORECAST/POPS
AS PREFERRED EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS MORNING. POPS WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA.  AS BETTER FORCING MOVES INTO THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH LIKELY
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST FA. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER RH
INCREASES TO ABOVE 80 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN FA, SO PLAN ON
KEEPING PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA POPS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST AND CHANCE POPS IN THE
EASTERN FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S WITH WARMER READINGS
IN THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TO THE UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...THOUGH EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW. AS STRONG 500 MB
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

EXPECT 500 MB RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY IN RESPONSE
TO CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. FURTHER
EAST...A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM MOVING EAST. MODELS SHOW
EITHER A RETROGRESSION WITH THE LOW OR SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF ARE GETTING MORE IN LINE
WITH ANOTHER...THOUGH GFS IS FASTER WITH THE MAIN FEATURES. BY
SUNDAY THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ADVECT OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION COULD TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO
MOISTURE. THERE IS BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MAIN LOW CENTER MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP
CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
GREATLY REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO RATHER HIGH CLOUD BASES
AND FOR THE MOST PART ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
LOW STRATUS AROUND 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IN LONG LIVED PERIOD OF
STRATUS IS LOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...JRM


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