Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 172004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
204 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Forecast issues will be chance of thunderstorms and their severity.
Weak right rear quadrant moves across the area during the night.
Shortwave trough moves across the forecast area the night. So kept
the trend of slight chance to low chance pops progressing across the
area during the night looks good. Shear and other severe
indices/parameters support having at least isolated severe.

Drying and subsidence moves into the area during the day as mid
level heights rise and ridging moves into area. Surface ridge noses
in during the day as winds shift to the north. Guidance very similar
to the previous forecast and made only minor adjustments.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Monsoonal moisture continues to advect into the central Plains
region Friday night and Saturday as the H5 ridge remains in place
over southeast Texas. H7 trough sets up in the lee of the Rockies
Saturday afternoon, giving us a chance of thunderstorms mainly east
of the Kansas, Colorado border. Isolated strong to severe storms are
possible. For Sunday, the trough remains in the area and with
slightly better instability in place, we could see another round of
isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms mainly east of
HWY 83.

Monday and Tuesday: A theta-e axis will be in place, stretched from
southwest to northeast across the CWA. CAPE remains modest with
relatively weak shear both in the 0-1 km and 0-6 km layers. Strong
to severe storms are a possibility during the late afternoon and
evening mainly along and east of this boundary; however, coverage
will likely be limited. Good instability will be in place Tuesday
but with little in the way of forcing or shear, thunderstorm
development is not expected.

Wednesday and Thursday: A relatively strong shortwave will move
across the region with an associated theta-e boundary and CAPE axis.
Will need to monitor this closely for consistency in the upcoming
days as more widespread thunderstorm development would be expected
with this scenario.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld,
thunderstorms should be near the site late this afternoon into
early this evening. Felt confident enough to only put vcts from
late this afternoon into early this evening. Winds will be south
around 10 knots until near 12z when the wind shifts to the west as
a front moves through. Around 14z the wind shifts to the south at
around 10 knots.

For Kmck, again expect thunderstorms near the site around 02z. So
only vcts was put in until 04z. The winds will south to southwest
from 5 to 8 knots late in the night when the wind shifts to the
west at about the same speed. Around 14z the wind will shift to
the north at 8 knots.




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