


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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844 FXUS63 KGLD 120508 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1108 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms will be possible daily through Saturday with the main threat of damaging winds. - Heavy rainfall is forecast overnight Friday into Saturday morning with 2 to 4 inches expected, mainly for northwestern counties. A Flood Watch is in effect tonight through 9AM MT Saturday. - Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid 90s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1106 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been allowed to expire. Still can`t completely rule out a rogue instance of a severe gust across Red Willow and Decatur counties through the next hour but upstream observations only ranged in the 35-45 mph range precluding any need for a local extension. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1216 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Tonight, multiple rounds of storms are expected to move through the area, especially our northwest areas overnight into Saturday morning. Generally, severe weather is favorable given the environmental conditions. Instability right now is likely the biggest limiting factor, but it is adequate. The main threats from severe weather will be damaging winds and a secondary threat of large hail. As far as timing, the storms look to be approaching our westernmost counties by around 00z to 01z and progress eastward through the area quickly. We are outlooked in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather from SPC to reflect this risk, especially for our northwesternmost areas. Some blowing dust out ahead of these storms will be a concern again tonight, but generally given the rainfall yesterday should be improved slightly. One large concern for especially the overnight hours from around 10pm-midnight MT through around 6am MT or later will be the flash flooding threat. This concern is mainly for the northwesternmost counties (Yuma, Dundy, and Cheyenne), but could extend to the surrounding counties to the east and south of that location given some of the uncertainties. Environmental conditions in this area are quite favorable for flash flooding with decent moisture up the atmospheric column, high PWs, long skinny CAPE, and lower shear. There is a small low level jet, but it is quite weak and if it does not manifest, this could be the biggest limiting factor toward seeing flash flooding. For now in recent models, it seems adequate, but will need to be monitored. There is also some uncertainty in how much training will occur with these storms, but recent model trends have been increasingly highlighting this scenario. If that happens, flash flooding impacts will be likely. Looking at the models, multiple rounds of rainfall will occur over the area from 10/11PM MT through 6AM MT with 2-4" inches expected. This could occur over the same areas, based on recent trends, primarily for Yuma, Dundy, and Cheyenne counties. This rainfall could be fairly efficient as well with 1-1.5" per hour rainfall rates possible. We are outlooked in a Slight Risk of Heavy Rainfall for these areas to reflect this risk. Given the flashy creeks and rivers in this area and general hilly terrain, this will be a big concern for flash flooding impacts. Minor to moderate flooding on rural roads and low lying areas are all in the realm of possibility, especially near creeks and rivers. As a result, a Flood Watch has been issued for Yuma, Dundy, and Cheyenne counties to highlight the risk areas and potential for flash flooding. We will continue monitoring overnight. MSW && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Saturday through Tuesday, upper level ridging will build over the area. Conditions will be fairly dry overall Saturday afternoon through Tuesday as a result. Winds will be predominantly southerly. So fire weather concerns should be kept to a minimum with RHs well above 20-30%. High temperatures will be mild in the mid 90s overall with heat index values in the low 90s. Generally, expect sunny and dry weather early next week. Tuesday night through the end of the workweek, multiple rounds of rainfall and systems are possible as zonal flow dominates the pattern and 1-2 shortwaves could influence the area. There is still a lot of model uncertainty in these systems, especially since one will influence the other as we go toward the weekend. Generally, looking at the current model trends, all modes of severe weather will be possible, especially damaging winds. And flash flooding could also be a concern in hilly or urban areas where rain trains or falls multiple times over the same area. A lot of what happens at the end of next week will become more clear as we get to Monday and Tuesday timeframe. We will keep monitoring closely for changes. MSW && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1010 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Showers and storms continue to move towards each terminal. An outflow boundary is forecast to impact KGLD just before the start of the period but shower and storms are anticipated to continue to impact the terminal through around 09Z with periods of MVFR conditions. The perhaps more impactful terminal impacts look to be for KMCK with heavier rainfall and the potential for stronger winds around 45kt. An increasing signal for stratus to impact KGLD starting around 11Z, some fog can`t be ruled out but think stratus is most likely. Rain should end later at KMCK than at KGLD so not impacting any impacts. Potential for stratus may linger around until the early afternoon for KGLD before finally clearing out. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ001. CO...Flood Watch until 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ090. NE...Flood Watch until 9 AM MDT Saturday for NEZ079. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...Williams LONG TERM...Williams AVIATION...Trigg