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000
FXUS63 KGLD 222034
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING A 600 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE AT H5. AT THE SFC...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA...BETWEEN TRIBUNE AND LEOTI EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS HILL CITY.

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES
THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LACK OF ANY MEANINGFUL CU FIELD AT 19Z LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AND WHILE AN ISOLATED
STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE...HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANYTHING WILL FIRE
ALONG REMAINING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH H85-H7 WAA INCREASING
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR STORMS COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES BUT WITH WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN STORM MOTION WOULD BE SLOW. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AND WHILE THE FORCING
WILL BE THERE...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND PRESSURE
ADVECTION VALUES ON 310 AND 315K SURFACES WOULD SUGGEST SATURATION
UNLIKELY. IF STORMS/CLOUDS CANNOT DEVELOP...BACKED EASTERLY FLOW
WITH A 100MB POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG PRIOR TO 15Z. GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODELS SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN
TODAY...GIVEN EXPECTED SFC PATTERN THAT APPEARS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BY FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN EASTERN COLORADO FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL IT SHIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FORCING. CAPE
WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000J/KG AND SHEAR WILL BE 20KTS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN OVERALL LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS BUT ONCE AGAIN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW HIGH BASED MOISTURE AROUND 600MB.  CAPE RANGES FROM 200J/KG IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO 800J/KG IN THE EAST.  DUE TO THESE MARGINAL
PARAMETERS WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH COVERAGE OVER THE
ENTIRE FA AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE EVENING.

SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA.  STORMS SHOULD
INITIATE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO WHERE LIFT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 60S WITH AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.



IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH SHIFT TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.  THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING DUE TO UPSLOPE WIND/SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.  NUMEROUS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS
COOLING TO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID 90S SATURDAY COOLING TO THE UPPER 80S FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITIES TOO LOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. SMALL THREAT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF AREA. STILL A FAIR BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH
RESPECT TO EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...SO HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON
AVIATION CATEGORIES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-
     029.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM