Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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793
FXUS63 KGLD 301856
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1256 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon along
the Palmer Divide in northeast Colorado as well as a weak surface
boundary near the Colorado/Kansas border area as a shortwave
trough emerges from the central Rockies. The environment will be
moderately unstable with SBCAPE up to 3000 j/kg. Deep layer shear
is not great, at around 20-30kts, but should be sufficient for a
few organized updrafts and possibly a supercell or two. Storm
motions will be northeast at around 15kts, but right movers will
be considerably slower at 5kts or less to the south. So thinking
flash flood threat will be limited to the stronger rotating
storms, particularly near areas that received heavy rain yesterday
(Wallace, Logan and Gove counties). Feel however the threat will
be too limited to warrant a flash flood watch. Storms will be
moving east with the upper shortwave and waning in the overnight
hours with loss of daytime heating. Showers/isolated storms may
linger into early Tuesday or perhaps into the afternoon south of
Highway 40 where models keep most of the precipitation.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Tuesday with northerly
flow resulting in highs around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

For the extended period, the GFS and European are showing dry, warm
conditions. A ridge is influencing the CWA for the entire period,
yet the ridge never fully engulfs the region. There is a fairly
pronounced trough in the eastern CONUS that is preventing the ridge
from moving east once it reaches the high plains. There is also a
closed low over Texas that also helps with inhibiting the
eastward movement of the ridge. Even with the lack of ridge movement
the CWA will remain dry and warm through Sunday; temperatures in the
80s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will develop around mid afternoon near the
Kansas and Colorado border then move east and become numerous in
the evening hours. KGLD could see a thunderstorm impact the
terminal from mid afternoon to early evening...while KMCK will
probably be impacted from early evening to around midnight. Brief
gusty winds, hail and reduced visibility in heavy rain or blowing
dust will be possible. Storms will gradually end after midnight.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...024



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