Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 192029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
228 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Overview: A lee trough/cyclone will deepen through tonight as
shortwave energy progresses ENE from the desert southwest to the
central/southern high plains, with additional deepening during the
day Friday as a robust upper trough progresses from the PAC NW to
the central/northern Rockies. Southerly return flow will strengthen
on the eastern periphery of the lee trough/cyclone in western KS and
southwest NE where the MSLP gradient will tighten considerably.

Through Tonight: Southerly winds will increase to 20 mph with
gusts to 30 mph late this afternoon. Although mixing will
decrease with loss of insolation this evening, expect a southerly
breeze to persist overnight as the MSLP gradient tightens on the
eastern periphery of the deepening lee trough/cyclone in eastern
CO. Expect lows ranging from the mid/upper 40s in eastern CO
(where winds will be lighter invof the lee trough) to mid/upper
50s east of Hwy 83 (where the MSLP gradient will be tightest and
southerly flow most persistent).

Friday: Southerly flow will strengthen in concert with further
tightening of the MSLP gradient east of the lee trough/cyclone in
eastern CO during the day. By peak heating, forecast soundings
indicate a ~4 KFT deep mixed layer with ~40 knot flow as low as 2
KFT AGL along/east of Hwy 83, increasing to 45-50 knots by 00Z
Sat. With the above in mind, expect southerly winds to increase to
25 to 35 mph by early afternoon, with gusts up to 50 mph likely
along/east of Hwy 83. Decreased mixing assoc/w loss of insolation
should prevent stronger winds from mixing down as low- level flow
further strengthens Fri evening. Expect highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, warmest S/SE. Marginal diurnal destabilization is
expected along/east of Hwy 83 during the afternoon as low-level
moisture (H85 dewpoints ~10C) advects beneath an elevated mixed
layer characterized by H7-H5 lapse rates on the order of 7.5-8.0
C/km. However, significant CIN and weak forcing aloft will
preclude any potential for convective development, and precip
chances should remain near 0.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Friday night-Saturday night...a cold front is currently forecast to
move swiftly across the area around or shortly after midnight Friday
night with northwest winds increasing into the 20 to 30 mph range
with higher gusts per mos guidance and previous forecast. On
Saturday could see gusts to 40 mph. Nice 3 hour pressure rises of 5-
7mb too all supportive of higher winds. Will have to watch for
isolated thunderstorms around 12z Saturday from Hill City to near
Gove where some elevated instability exists with low cin in an area
of 850-500mb moisture ahead of the front. Right now have silent pops
going. Could also see some stratus ahead of the front by midnight.
Low temperatures Friday night in the low 40s east to mid 50s west.
High temperatures Saturday in the mid 50s west to mid 60s east. Lows
Saturday night in the low to mid 30s.

Sunday...upper level heights slowly increase as longwave trough and
cold front continue east and high pressure centered off the
California coast into Mexico slightly strengthens. Afternoon
temperatures should peak in the mid 60s to low 70s with lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

Monday...latest long range models showing a cold front moving south
across the area during the afternoon. GFS 850mb temperatures in line
with advertised highs in the low to mid 70s but any deviation on
fronts arrival will change these values either warmer or cooler.
Will likely see breezy to perhaps windy conditions behind the
front, nudged up winds a bit. Low temperatures in the mid 30s to
low 40s.

Tuesday...should see continued breezy conditions during the day with
850mb winds in the mid 30kt range. 850mb temperatures drop into the
5C (east) to 11C (west) range supporting afternoon temperatures in
the mid 50s to low 60s. Low temperatures in the low to mid 30s. expecting extensive sunshine during the day with a
clear sky overnight ahead of an approaching upper trough and cold
front. 850mb temperatures and MEX guidance would support highs in
the 70s vs official forecast in the mid to upper 60s. Low
temperatures generally in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Thursday...long range models bring an upper trough and increase in
clouds through the area. 6 hour pressure rises in the 7-13mb range
move in by 18z remaining in the 6-10mb area through 00z. This would
suggest at least breezy north winds during the day. 850mb
temperatures fall during the day and could see sfc temperatures do
the same. Timing is everything for temperature forecast and this far
out wont make any changes to advertised highs int he upper 50s to
mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Southerly winds
will increase from 10-15 knots this morning to 20 knots with
gusts up to 25-30 knots by late afternoon and early evening
(21-00Z), and remain breezy overnight. Southerly winds will
strengthen to 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots by the end of the
TAF period (18Z Fri). Southerly wind gusts as high as 40-45 knots
cannot be ruled out late Friday afternoon and evening, primarily
east of Highway 83.




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