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000
FXUS63 KGLD 062025
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
125 PM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICT A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS UNDER THE TROUGH.  THE
WARMING GROUND TEMPERATURES UNDER THE ARCTIC AIR MASS HAVE ALLOWED
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT.  WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS THE TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO NEAR/BELOW ZERO.  OVERNIGHT THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WHICH WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE AREA.  THE CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD SINCE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL FALL TO ATLEAST 15
BELOW ZERO BY SUNRISE.

SATURDAY THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET BEHIND THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MIX TO THE GROUND BY LATE MORNING.  AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO NEAR 25 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO DURING THE MORNING.  BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO WARM TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO.  DUE TO WIND
CHILLS LESS THAN 15 BELOW ZERO LINGERING AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THE
CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES...WILL BE EXTENDING THE TIME OF THE
ADVISORY AS A RESULT.

MEANWHILE A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 300MB JET AND LEFT EXIT OF
THE 500MB JET MOVE OVERHEAD.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
SATURATED MAINLY ALONG THE INVERSION FROM 850 TO 700MB.  THETA-E
LAPSE RATES OF 10C/KM SUGGEST A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT WITH
SOME OF THE SATURATED AIR IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOWFALL.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA.  AM EXPECTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH DURING
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF LIFT AND UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MST THU DEC 5 2013

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING LATE. ARCTIC AIR WILL HANG
TOUGH EARLY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. KMCK SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE GUSTY WINDS. AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES CEILINGS SHOULD DECLINE TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS BUT REMAIN VFR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 11
     AM MST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-
     041-042.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 11
     AM MST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL