Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 272003
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ZCZC TOPWRKJSL 052051
TTAA00 KTOP DDHHMM

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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