Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 291012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
412 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED THE COVERAGE AREA OF PATCHY FOG EXPECTED FIRST THING THIS
MORNING. OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST HAVE YET TO REPORT
ANY DECREASES IN VISIBILITY...BUT TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...ARE AT
2 DEGREES OR LESS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE EAST...BUT HAVE DECREASED THE
COVERAGE PRIMARILY IN THE WEST.

ANOTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM FOR TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...COULD SEE RH VALUES DROP TO
BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS. SO EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE
DRY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND GROWING SEASON IS STILL IN FULL SWING...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS TO BE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NEW MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITES STATES SWEEPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TODAY. AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
FLATTEN BY SUNDAY EVENING...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THE LEE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS/PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS ABOUT AVERAGE AND
WILL BE SUBJECT TO FURTHER REVISION AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO
THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. HAVE TENDED TO GENERALIZE SOME AT THIS
POINT WITH STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.  GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS
ALL HAVE SOME AGREEMENT AS TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
HOWEVER...ECMWF/DGEX GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE LIFTING
MECHANISM.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME AVAILABLE SHEAR AND
CAPE...HOWEVER VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE DESPITE THE NEGATIVE TILT
IN OTHER MODELS.  AT ANY RATE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE IN THE UPPER
PROFILE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...THUS MAKING A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOIST UPPER PROFILE. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD UNDER THE STABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE.

A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS MAY PROVIDE
THE LIFT NEEDED TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME...BUT MORE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS INSTEAD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF AS TO THE PATTERN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE FEATURE TO BRING A WET
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC BECOMING SCT080
BY 18Z-19Z. 4SM-6SM IN FOG FOR BOTH SITES POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM
08Z-12Z. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE...BECOMING SW 5-10KTS FOR KGLD BY
18Z...AND SE AROUND 5KTS FOR KMCK BY 19Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.