Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221934
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
134 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...after seeing morning
showers...especially along and south of Interstate 70 the area is
seeing a psunny/msunny mix. Added sunshine over the area allowing
for numerous cumulus to develop. Temperatures are currently ranging
mainly in the 60s with a few locales already in the 70F range. Winds
are gusting at times under a WNW surface flow.

With the CWA now north of morning clouds/precip...the area now will
see increasing clouds from the north as the afternoon progresses. A
cold front/upper level trough near the northern Nebraska
border...will push southward thru the afternoon hours on into this
evening. Enough instability across the area will trigger
convection...some of which may become strong to severe. The CWA does
remain under a Marginal Risk as a result...and have continued
mention of enhanced wording into early evening. Loss of diurnal
heating by then will diminish chances for strong storms...and
eventually only showers will ensue late.

Current models runs will shift bulk of precip east of the CWA by 06z
Tuesday...allowing for clearing/lower pops slowly towards Tuesday
morning. Do expect lingering cloud cover for the morning hours
Tuesday...so have kept in slight chance for -rw before going
psunny/msunny. Gradient behind this exiting system will be
tight...so do expect steady/gusty wnw wind near 30 mph to replace
lack of precip.

For temps...no strong CAA present overnight so area will see
slightly below normal lows in the lower to mid 40s. Highs Tuesday
will range in the lower to mid 60s...with temps depending on extent
of expected cloud cover thru the day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

By Tuesday night...system finally exits well east of the
region...allowing for strong H5 ridging to push east out into the
Plains region thru Wednesday night. This 36-hour time span will
bring dry conditions to the entire area.

Dry conditions are short lived as by Thursday and on into the
upcoming holiday weekend...a series of shortwaves will work east off
the Rockies and thru the Plains region. Model guidance will give the
area a chance for rw/trw during this time. strongest system appears
to traverse the region during the latter portion of the weekend into
next week.

For temps...although some WAA will be present during the daytime
hours...highs will vary greatly during the next week.Tthe area will
be looking at highs in the 60s and 70s. Some locales near 80F on
thursday near southern zones. This area will see chance for precip
last on that day. Overnight lows will range in the 40s mainly with
eastern zones warmest.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

For KGLD...mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast period with
SCT050-120. From 21z Mon-05z Tues...vcts/tsra possible as front
moves thru the area. Winds NNW 10-15kts with gusts 20-25kts from
21z onward. From 23z-01z when best chance for thunder is
possible...winds could gust 30-40kts.

For KMCK...mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast period with
SCT050-120. From 20z Mon-06z Tues...vcts/tsra possible as front
moves thru the area. Winds WNW 10-12kts. From 22z-24z when best
chance for thunder is possible...winds could gust 25-40kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN



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