Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231910

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
110 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue through
tonight and Sunday. Synoptic scale forcing remains rather nebulous
with only weak shortwave trough rotating around the anticyclone
centered over the Four Corners. A surface trough located from near
Norton to Leoti this afternoon may be the focus for initiation but
so far little evidence seen in visible satellite imagery and short
term models not very supportive either. Better chances may come
tonight with scattered convection coming out of Colorado. Storm
organization will be limited by weak deep layer sheer but cant
rule out an isolated hail/wind threat with stronger storms. As has
been the case lately, expect storms to persist through the night
followed by a lull Sunday morning...then gradually increasing
again Sunday afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly
cooler with upslope surface will let the heat advisory
expire at 00z tonight with no plan to reissue for Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

At the beginning of the extended period the upper level flow starts
out predominant zonal and then turns meridional by end. Disturbances
are anticipated to pass across the High Plains with the stronger
waves passing on Wednesday and Saturday. This means that chance of
precipitation will persist throughout the extended period with
better chances for precipitation on Tuesday and Saturday.
Temperatures will remain warm, mainly in the low to mid 90s during
the first part of the period. Then cool into the high 80s towards
the end.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period.
Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop but due
to the limited coverage the chances of impacting either terminal
appear slim. Surface winds will be light but switch to a more
northerly direction behind a surface trough which will move
through this afternoon.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004-015-016-

NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ080-081.



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