Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 212049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
249 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Today through tomorrow, slight adjustments were made in the short
term forecast period to take into account latest observations and
model guidance. Only activity on radar is very light elevated
precipitation over Greeley and Wichita counties. FROPA appears to
remain in the same general area as the previous model run, so we
will continue to hold onto a slight chance of thunderstorms this
evening, followed by a slight chance of patchy fog late overnight
residing mostly in the northwestern section of our CWA. Pops will
dissipate as a surface high pressure system moves over the central
plains and will persist until around Wednesday, when moisture
begins to build back into the area from the west. Temperatures are
expected to remain with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the
lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 153 PM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

During the extended period, the highest chances for precipitation
will be Wednesday through Saturday. Tuesday night is anticipated to
be dry due to a ridge still in place over the region. Come
Wednesday, the ridge will begin to push east and a weak shortwave
will move into the area. This will cause some precipitation
development. Thursday will bring an embedded shortwave trough over
the CWA. Due to this, precipitation is likely. Based on current
guidance, the afternoon will be more rain and then the evening could
see more storm chances. Friday and Saturday will be similar with
upper level northwest flow dominating over the Tri-State region.
This will bring continued precipitation chances each day.

A dominate ridge is in place over the western CONUS on Friday and
will impact the region Sunday and Monday. This will cause a dry
pattern over the CWA. There could potentially be pop up showers but
nothing significant is expected.

Temperatures during the period will primarily stay in the 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at the Goodland and McCook terminals. Sub-VFR
conditions could occur between the 10-14Z timeframe, but
forecaster confidence is too low at this time to put in any hard




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