Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 291153
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE ROCKIES FROM WESTERN WYOMING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MAIN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THIS
EVENING...SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT MOVES THROUGH...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ARE AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 1.25 INCHES. THE AREAS OF GREATEST
RAINFALL ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE GOODLAND
FORECAST AREA AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HYDRO HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT ANY
CHANGES IN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED LOCATIONS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH MAY REQUIRE HIGHLIGHTS TO BE ISSUED.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO RISE AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE REAMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST AND THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARD BUT
STILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER COLUMN
WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND PROFILE LOOKS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY IN THE
HIGH PLAINS AS COMPARED TO THE MOIST/SATURATED DEPICTIONS FOR MID
WEEK. WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING IT INTO AT LEAST THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE. WITH FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND A TREND TOWARD RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...CONVECTION COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
EVENING AND PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO COLORADO AS TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION DRIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT
INCREASE MARKEDLY BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEAMPLIFYING THE PATTERN
BY MONDAY AS COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THEREFORE
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING AND WILL TURN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER 21Z AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND MOVE EAST OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AS A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY AT GLD FROM 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. MCK WILL HAVE A LOWER
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE LOWER CLOUDS OR A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...LOCKHART






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