Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221505

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
905 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Issued at 905 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Update to forecast sent to adjust pops/clouds from morning
precipitation. Currently lingering showers remain over southern
portions of the CWA. This area of showers continues a slow trek
eastward with clearing expected in the next couple hours. Cloud
shield associated with this round of precipitation extends a bit
farther back in the area...with clearing line now across much of
Colorado...Nebraska and portions of NW Kansas. This veil of
clouds will continue to push south and east out of the CWA into
the early afternoon. Do expect rebound in temps...and increased
instability ahead of cold front...which is currently over NW
Nebraska and will affect the area later today. CWA remains under
a Marginal Risk for severe wx when this arrives...and will adjust
forecast as this system gets closer to the area.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Today-tonight...a weather disturbance and its associated
showers/isolated thunderstorms rotating around a low pressure area
over Minnesota this morning will be nearly out of the area by 18z
with decreasing cloudiness behind it. It will however be short lived
as another disturbance and increased chance for
showers/thunderstorms moves in from the northwest by mid to late
afternoon. Highest pops across the northwest portion of the area.
Mid to high chance pops early this evening as it moves southeast
across the area with slight chance to no chance pops after
midnight. Operational and experimental HRRR showing wind gusts
approaching severe thresholds from mid afternoon through early
evening. High temperatures look to warm into the mid 60s to around
70. Lows should range from the upper 30s to around 40 in far
eastern Colorado to the low to mid 40s elsewhere. Northwest winds
slowly increase through the day with 15 to 25 mph speeds and
higher gusts late this afternoon generally across the northwest
half of the area.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...another weather disturbance moves in from
the northwest during the afternoon supporting a slight chance of
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms for all but the far west
through southern parts of the area. Upper level ridging tries to
move in from the west for the rest of the period with no chance of
precipitation. Currently have high temperatures in the low to mid
60s with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...northeast to southwest oriented ridge
axis moves into the area in between low pressure systems over
Kentucky and Montana. 850mb temperatures warm about 6F (east) to 18f
(west) supporting highs in the low to mid 70s. Low temperatures warm
back into the mid 40s to around 50.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 218 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Active weather returns in the extended period with nearly persistent
precipitation chances and a cooling trend.

An upper ridge slides east of the region on Thursday and dry
conditions come to an end. A low pressure system slowly traverses
south central Canada. The trough and cold front associated with this
system extends south into the High Plains. As the system gradually
tracks eastward along the US/Canada border, multiple shortwaves pass
through the southern periphery of the broad upper low. This
generates shower and thunderstorm chances nearly every period in the
extended. Differences in guidance make timing and severe threat
difficult to determine at this time. Will continue to monitor and
iron out details in the coming days.

Temperatures cool throughout the period, from the 70s/low 80s on
Thursday to the upper 60s/low 70s on Sunday. Low temperatures look
to remain in the mid 40s to mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. A lull
in precipitation is expected at both terminals through about 19z
before another weather disturbance moves in from the northwest.
This one will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms with
small hail and wind gusts to 45kts from about 20z-01z. Could also
see mvfr visibilities in the stronger storms. Precipitation
should be out of the area before 06z with dry weather through 12z.
Northwest winds will gust over 20kts from 21z-01z at KGLD and




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