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000
FXUS63 KGLD 112327
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ENHANCED AREAS OF VORTICITY ALOFT...WHICH IS
ACTING TO PROVIDE OVERCAST CLOUDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
TRI STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS STRONG LOWER LEVEL JET BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WHICH WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THIS EVENING TO
PROVIDE STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. VERTICAL SINKING AND
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS HIGH
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO STILL WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES...BUT AROUND
HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WILL PRECIPITATE. MODEL THICKNESS AND
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX AND
THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES
AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO DROP AFTER THE WINDS SETTLE DOWN TONIGHT AND CLEARING
BEGINS...WITH LOWS REACHING THE MID 20S. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER TOMORROW...PROVIDING
A SEASONABLE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. POPS FOR
THOSE PERIODS WILL BE NIL. THE NEARBY UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WILL BE LACKING FOR MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA AND DYNAMICS
ARE TOO DISTANT TO MAKE ANY IMPACT.  AS A RESULT, POPS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE NIL.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MID 50S BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT THEN TURN COLDER AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANGE TO LIGHT
SNOW. SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS WITH NIL POPS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME MID 60S
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE TAFS WILL BE THE CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. A MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES WITH RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AREAS OF
ENHANCED LIFT. ONCE THIS FEATURE HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF
SITES...WHICH WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RESUME.

FOR KGLD...INCLUDED MVFR VISIBILITY AT 3SM TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD
WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 900 FT. ALSO HAVE A TEMPO GROUP IN THE FIRST
HOUR FOR IFR VISIBILITY SINCE KGLD AND STATIONS WEST CURRENTLY HAVE
VISIBILITY AROUND 2SM...HOWEVER DO NOT THINK IFR VISIBILITY WILL
LAST TOO LONG INTO THE FIRST HOUR. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO
BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ENDING AT 01Z WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. KGLD SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OUT WITH VFR CEILINGS BY 03Z AND
WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW KGLD SHOULD BE CLEAR
WITH WIND GUSTS RETURNING...BUT MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY
AT 25 KTS.

FOR KMCK...INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS AT 2000 FT WITH LIGHT RAIN TO
BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST...KMCK SHOULD CLEAR OUT A BIT QUICKER THAN KGLD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AROUND 02Z AND WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING. TOMORROW
KMCK SHOULD ALSO BE CLEAR WITH LIGHTER WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...ALW