Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
356 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Issued at 356 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Updating forecast to include a Wind Chill Advisory for the
northeast portions of our CWA. Temperatures inside the advisory
will range from minus 15 to minus 20.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 220 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

This morning, wind chill temperatures will range in the 5 to 15
below zero range across the Tri-State area. Temperatures will be
inhibited by cloud cover, snow cover, and CAA continuing to push
over our area. Expecting the max temps to only get into the low
to mid 20s.

Wednesday morning will be similar with wind chills again in the
negative single digits. Later on, max temps will only climb
slightly into the mid and upper 20s.

Thursday through Thursday night, we will see the air mass
beginning to lift east out of our area as a system begins to push
in. Mixed wintry precipitation is expected. At this time
expecting a snow transitioning to freezing drizzle or light rain.
This could change in the next 24 hours, depending on the extent
the surface trough develops. Regardless, it will continue through
Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Going into Friday...weak surface ridging is set up over the region
during the daytime hours...w/ an inverted surface trough developing
over SE CO. This trough does develop out ahead of a larger
shortwave...and will shift east off the central Rockies Friday night
into Saturday across the CWA. Some model timing differences but the
shortwave pushes east of the CWA during the afternoon hrs Saturday
allowing for dry conditions for the remainder of the weekend into
the beginning of next week. Another weaker shortwave does move over
the region Monday morning.

For the Friday night/Saturday morning timeframe...track of the
surface trough/low just south of the CWA with the upper support
transitioning over the CWA...will give the region a round of
precipitation...with light snow as main p-type based on latest temp
profiles. Best enhancement will be focused along and north of
Interstate 70. Looking for potential 1-2" of snowfall here with an
inch or less south of the Interstate. As temps increase during
morning Saturday...any leftover moisture will transition to light
rain before ending.

Temps in the extended will see and increasing trend during this time
w/ highs starting off Friday in the upper 30s to low 40s...then
increasing to around 50F by next Tuesday. Overnight lows will range
from the upper teens thru the mid 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 915 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

KGLD, mvfr-ifr cigs/vis from taf issuance through about 13z with
winds from the northeast near 11kts. Northeast to southwest
oriented band of light to moderate snow will impact the terminal
before weakening. After 14z vfr conditions expected. Winds begin
the period from the north around 13kts with some possible gusts
before veering to the northeast around 10kts by 00z then almost
due east near 6kts after 02z.

KMCK, mvfr/ifr cigs/vis from taf issuance through about 15z with
winds from the north to northeast near 12kts. Northeast to
southwest oriented band of light to moderate snow should impact
the terminal before weakening. After 16z vfr conditions expected.
Winds begin from the north to north-northwest near 14kts with some
gusts. After 23z winds fall below 12kts from the north and after
02z expect a light northeast wind 5kts or so.


KS...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ this morning for

CO...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for COZ090-091.

NE...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for NEZ079.



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