Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 100925

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
225 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Issued at 456 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Have cancelled the Red Flag Warning since winds have dropped off
and RH values are on the climb as temperatures decrease. Expect
very dry conditions again on Sunday with RH values of 10-15%,
Increasing northwest winds Sunday afternoon should keep fire
weather conditions elevated, but just short of critical


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Northwest flow remains in place across the Central High Plains, and
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicates subsidence region migrating
over our CWA.

This afternoon: Red flag conditions (RH 15% or lower/winds gusting
25mph) are occurring over eastern Colorado and in the last hour have
started in far northwest Kansas. Ultimately we may not meet 3hr of
these conditions before winds begins to decrease in the next hour or
so, but I will let Red Flag Warning play out as conditions are
ongoing and it is close enough considering the very dry fuels.

Tonight-Sunday: Downslope develops as BL flow shifts more to a
westerly direction in Colorado and WAA increase late tonight through
Sunday. Air mass will moderate and we may see mixing overnight and
enough wind to limit radiational conditions in our east. I trended
overnight lows up some (near 30F), but may still be low. Highs
Sunday should be in the 60s, and with very low Tds still expected we
may reach 15% RH across much of our CWA. Gradient weakens some from
the west to the east, and winds ultimately may not be strong enough
for RFW consideration. If we mix well enough in the east it is
possible locations east of the CO state line might see a window for
critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon. This would
likely be less than 3hr over a smaller area in our east and
confidence isn`t high enough for issuance yet.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 224 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Through the next week several shortwaves will move through the
central plains. The first Wednesday night and the second one
Saturday morning. These will bring in brief cooler air, dropping
our max daily temps for Thursday and Saturday near 50. While
Friday and Sunday we will have slight warming with mid to upper
50s. Lows will be in the 20`s for the extended period.

Even with the shortwave passages, winds aren`t expected to go over
20 mph through the extended period. No pops in the extended
forecast. Expecting an uneventful weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1021 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the TAF period
with clear skies and northwest winds that will become gusty for a
brief period during the early afternoon on Sunday.




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