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000
FXUS63 KGLD 300538
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
SUNNY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WINDS ARE FROM
THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH MEASURED
EARLIER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...DRIFTING EAST. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...HEADING EAST AND ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE BAJA PENINSULA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...DRY WEATHER SHALL
CONTINUE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. CLOUDS GRADUALLY
RETURN AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN AND A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS AHEAD OF
THE PACIFIC TROUGH. MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIMITED SO NOT
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION UNTIL WE NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION.
NORTH WINDS WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AS THE HIGH PASSES OVER. THEN...AS
A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS...SOUTH WINDS RETURN AND STRENGTHEN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THE PACIFIC TROUGH ENCROACHES AND WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON RADAR. THE QUESTION FOR THE
FORECAST IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL OBSERVE PRECIPITATION REACHING
THE GROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FELT WE SHOULD SATURATE THE COLUMN OVER
WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THIS WOULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND SO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...VIRGA AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL EVENING. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
IS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST SAT-SUN AS A WAVE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHUNTS IT SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS IT STANDS NOW...A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR A LIGHT RAIN-SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT
WITH NO ACCUMULATION. BEST PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. AREA-WIDE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FRIDAY NIGHT...AROUND 30 DEGREES...DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER.
THEN COLD AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING AROUND 32 ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN
AIRMASS DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING SEVERAL BRIEF ATTEMPTS AT MODERATING
TEMPS BEFORE YET ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS DOMINATES AGAIN FOR THE
MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. RIGHT NOW PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MINIMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS STARTING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN SW US WILL ALLOW INFLUX OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY SPREAD IN HOW THIS
FAR NORTH THIS WILL IMPACT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP/STRATUS/FOG. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS IN 1500-2500 FT AGL CIGS
OVER KGLD IN THE EVENING SO I INTRODUCES A MVFR CIG GROUP. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF MUCH LOWER CONDITIONS IF
BETTER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. VFR IS MOST
LIKELY GOING TO PREVAIL ALL TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH GUSTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY 20-25KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR