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000
FXUS63 KGLD 062141
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICT A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS UNDER THE TROUGH.  THE
WARMING GROUND TEMPERATURES UNDER THE ARCTIC AIR MASS HAVE ALLOWED
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT.  WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS THE TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO NEAR/BELOW ZERO.  OVERNIGHT THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WHICH WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE AREA.  THE CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD SINCE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL FALL TO AT LEAST 15
BELOW ZERO BY SUNRISE.

SATURDAY THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET BEHIND THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MIX TO THE GROUND BY LATE MORNING.  AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO NEAR 25 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO DURING THE MORNING.  BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO WARM TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO.  DUE TO
WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 15 BELOW ZERO LINGERING AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
THE CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES...WILL BE EXTENDING THE TIME OF THE
ADVISORY AS A RESULT.

MEANWHILE A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 300MB JET AND LEFT EXIT OF
THE 500MB JET MOVE OVERHEAD.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
SATURATED MAINLY ALONG THE INVERSION FROM 850 TO 700MB.  THETA-E
LAPSE RATES OF 10C/KM SUGGEST A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT WITH
SOME OF THE SATURATED AIR IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOWFALL.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA.  AM EXPECTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH DURING
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF LIFT AND UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...HOW COLD TO MAKE IT EARLY ON...AND THEN HOW MUCH
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODIFY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. RIDGE LOCATED
ALONG THE WEST COAST EXTENDS TO PAST THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY DIGGING/MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS ACTUALLY DIGGING/MOVING WEST.
ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA WITH REINFORCING
SHORTS/COLDER AIR STILL TO OUR NORTH.

MODELS AT MID LEVELS TENDED TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE
LOWER HEIGHTS WITH THE CANADIAN TOO STRONG/LOW ON HEIGHTS. THEY WERE
ALL PRETTY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER DESPITE THIS. THE ECMWF WAS DOING THE
BEST AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS
THEN CANADIAN AND UKMET ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET AFFECTS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND THEN MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME THE MODELS MOVE A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WITH IT MAINLY AFFECTING
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODELS ARE THEN INDICATING A BRIEF BREAK
AND THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT.
THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND LOOKS TO BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERING HOW QUICK THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWS THE FIRST
ONE...I AM WONDERING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT FOR IT. ALL THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...ARE INDICATING THAT THE MOISTURE
DEPTH INCREASES BY LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH. ALSO MID LEVEL THETA-E LAPSE RATES STARTING
CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF. HOWEVER...THAT IS WHERE
THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE DEPTH. CONSIDERING THE
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH...AND MODEL DIFFERENCES
AND CONTRADICTIONS IN MOISTURE QUALITY AND WHEN/HOW/WHERE THE
STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH...LEADS TO AN UNCERTAIN
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. BELIEVE WILL BE GETTING SNOW BUT WHEN/WHERE
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. MODELS ARE INDICATING A LOWER AMOUNT OF
QPF/SNOW AMOUNT. SIMILAR TO THE NIGHT FORECAST...THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST APPEAR TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. SO
ENDED UP BROADBRUSHING THE POPS MORE AND SLIGHTLY REDUCING AMOUNTS.

WITH THICK CLOUD COVER AND FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...WILL KEEP
THE CURRENT MINS OR SLIGHTLY RAISE THEM. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. KEPT MAXES ABOUT THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
REDUCED THEM.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...SUBSIDENT PORTION OF THE JET REMAINS NEAR OR
JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. ON MONDAY THE MAIN JET IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH ANOTHER JET APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH DOES IT
CLEAR OFF AND HOW MUCH THE TEMPERATURES FALL.

THE WINDS ALSO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BUT LOOK TO NOT BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. STILL IS SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE AND JET. SO WILL TEND TO GO ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE...IT COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER...
THERE IS MORE SUN...OR A LITTLE OR A LOT COLDER. KEPT THE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME WITH BEING ABOUT A TAD WARMER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE RIDGING OR MORE ZONAL
FLOW MOVING IN THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP IN HOW MODELS HANDLE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH.
MODELS WANT TO CUT OFF THE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT THEN EJECT IT NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN IT SOME BUT STILL HAVING A LITTLE BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT
TO IT. THEN THE MODELS BRING IN/DIG ANOTHER LOW IN BEHIND IT INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLES HAVE AN INCREASING SPREAD WITH TIME.

CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY...LEFT THE CRH_INIT GRIDS ALONE...WHICH
KEEPS THE AREA DRY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
CAREFULLY. MODELS WARM UP TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAKING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WARM UP ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF
THE WARM UPS CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP US SUSCEPTIBLE TO
ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS. AFTER COLLABORATION...LEFT TEMPERATURES
ALONE OR MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. KMCK SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE GUSTY WINDS. AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES CEILINGS SHOULD DECLINE TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS BUT REMAIN
VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10
     AM MST /11 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-
     041-042.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MST SATURDAY
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 10
     AM MST /11 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL