Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 132029
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
129 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST AS STRATUS PERSISTS AREA-WIDE. FREEZING FOG IS WANING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10 TO 20
MPH...GUSTING 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
WHERE OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE. WHERE STRATUS IS DISSIPATING...
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY CLIMBED INTO THE 40S. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS WYOMING...
HEADING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NEBRASKA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW...OVERALL ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST COLORADO AS SOON AS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BUT MOST PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT
WILL NOT BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

HOWEVER...THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCES COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...REMAINING MOISTURE FROM TODAY`S FOG AND STRATUS WILL
POOL...GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
IN COMBINATION WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER BOUT OF
FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE. ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO THE FORECAST
FOR THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH...INCREASED MIXING
SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ANY FOG OR STRATUS THAT MAY DEVELOP. A BRIEF
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...AS HIGH AS 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

FOR TOMORROW...ANTICIPATING WARMER TEMPERATURES. DRIER AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WIDESPREAD ORAGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO BECOME
OVERCAST BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY.  BEHIND THE RIDGE
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.  CURRENTLY
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM 10 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY. HOWEVER...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW FAST CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REALIZED EARLIER AT KGLD WITH
KMCK AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. PRIOR TO THE FRONT...
CALM WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FOG/STRATUS. AS THE FRONT PASSES...SURFACE WINDS MAY BE
INITIALLY SLOW TO RESPOND...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH


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