Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 260755
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
155 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1220 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Today-tonight...center of 590dm upper high resides over southwest
New Mexico with ridge axis extending north-northeast along the
Continental Divide. May see some cirrus from time to time
otherwise clear. High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with
low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Thursday-Thursday night...center of 590dm upper high slowly moves
east into west Texas during the day as upper trough approaches the
west coast. The upper high holds firm for the overnight hours with
west coast trough moving little. Any cloudiness would be limited
to cirrus level. Will have to monitor areas east of a line from
around McCook to Gove after midnight as boundary layer moisture
increases from the east possibly creating some low clouds and fog.
Afternoon temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with low
temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Friday-Friday night...upper high centered over much of Texas and low
pressure off the northwest coast has the forecast area under
southwest flow aloft. Storm track keeps the better moisture north
and west of the area leaving us dry. High temperatures warm into the
low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016
An upper level ridge remains the dominant feature in the long term,
leading to a dry forecast for the entire period. Temperatures are
generally above normal through at least the weekend, with cooler
air anticipated to move in by Tuesday.
Wednesday night through Friday night: Dry weather persists across
the region. The upper ridge rebuilds and continues to progress
towards the Plains through Thursday. A weak shortwave moves from the
Pacific coast towards the northern Plains on Friday, flattening the
ridge and sending a cold front south. Still do not expect any
precipitation with this front due to the dry air mass in place. Will
keep an eye on fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon, but at
this time, it appears the drier air and stronger winds will not be
collocated. Additionally, dry air does make it further into our
forecast area from Colorado on Friday, so will continue to monitor
this day as well.
Saturday through Tuesday: The cold front traverses the High Plains
late Friday/early Saturday as the northern Plains disturbance
continues north of the region. The ridge quickly redevelops behind
this system and persists over the area through Sunday. Another
shortwave advances from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains
on Monday, pushing the high pressure to the southeastern CONUS and
bringing cooler air to the region. The shortwave continues traveling
northeast into Canada on Tuesday, and southwesterly flow develops
aloft over the area. PoPs remain near zero during this timeframe.
Temperatures: Highs start out mainly in the low/mid 80s on Thursday
and Friday, followed by a gradual cooling trend into next week.
Saturday and Sunday have temperatures generally in the mid to upper
70s. Another cold front decreases temperatures early next week, with
highs in the 60s on Tuesday. The period begins with lows mostly in
the 40s to low 50s Wednesday through Friday nights. They then follow
the aforementioned trend, dropping into the mid 30s to mid 40s in
time for Monday night.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016
For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Little if any cloudiness expected. Northwest winds near 10kts
today will decrease toward sunset then become southwesterly 5 to