Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280646
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1246 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER


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