Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 182034
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...IFR NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME FOG COULD BE NEAR KGLD DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...AM THINKING BECAUSE OF INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SKY COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...FOG WILL NOT AFFECT THE SITE.

FOR KMCK...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
HOURS BEFORE CLEARING. FROM 06Z TO 15Z...MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.