Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 270541
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1141 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

EXPANDED AREA OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAINLY NORTH AND EAST...BUT
ALSO TO INCLUDE AREAS WHERE FIRST CLUSTER OF HEAVY
RAIN MOVED THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS HEAVY AS THE FIRST ROUND...BUT WITH RAIN AS EFFICIENT AS
IT HAS BEEN I WANTED TO PLAY IT SAFE AND KEEP THE WATCH GOING. IM
LESS CERTAIN ABOUT OUR COLORADO COUNTIES...HOWEVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THESE COUNTIES COULD STILL BE IN LINE FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OVERNIGHT...AND WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THEM YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NEVADA LATE THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO UTAH THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO BY 00Z THURSDAY. ONE OR TWO DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS GOING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISNT VERY HIGH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WEST...LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER. FURTHER EAST IN THE HILL CITY AREA UPPER 80S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
COLORADO...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 00Z WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AND BY 12Z JUST EXITING THE AREA.
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE MODEST AT
BEST...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS BUT THE OVERALL THREAT
LOOKS RATHER MUTED. ADDITIONAL 12-HOUR QPF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
HIGHEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE MODELS SHOW GENERALLY 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED ONE INCH. THOSE
NUMBERS WOULD NOT GENERALLY WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN/SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS ONE MAY HAVE TO
BE CONSIDERED AT A LATER TIME.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH PEAK HEATING. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE UP TO 40KTS. ALTHOUGH BETTER SEVERE CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE FRONT...COULD SEE
A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE HILL CITY TO GOVE AREAS...WITH LESSER
CHANCES NORTH AND WEST AS INSTABILITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. UPPER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
THE FAR EAST COUNTIES...NORTON AND GRAHAM...BUT OTHERWISE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING AWAY WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS BACK TO NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY.

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE
KMCK TERMINALS AND VIS DROPS TO 2SM OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AND IMPACT KGLD DROPPING CONDITIONS AGAIN TO
MVFR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY
12Z...HOWEVER WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE LIGHT FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CANT BE RULED OUT. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
THIS...HOWEVER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS CONDITIONS REMAINING
VFR. I KEPT IFR IN PLACE AROUND 12-15Z AT KGLD TO COVER
THIS...AND MVFR AT KMCK. IF PRECIP LINGERS LONGER THIS WILL LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER IF THINGS CLEAR OUT DENSE FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WITH THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH STORMS AGAIN MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     KSZ001>003-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...0254
AVIATION...DR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.