Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
806 PM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

Issued at 806 PM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

Update to forecast issued to mainly adjust temps from latest set
of obs. Currently over the region...skies are clear with temps
ranging from the mid 30s up to the mid 40s. Surface flow is out
of the WSW. Overall forecast in great shape and do expect temps to
continue dropping due to radiational cooling under clear skies.
Will monitor temp trend over next several hours to see if locales
drop too fast. Td readings in the teens to low some room
to go down and if any of these readings were hit...would be below
current will keep tabs on.


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 102 PM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

Large scale ridging is in place across the Intermountain West
extending eastward into the Central High Plains. A very deep dry
air mass in in place. At the surface lee troughing extending
across eastern Colorado, with weak SW gradient extending over our

This afternoon-Thursday: Weak pulses of energy aloft may crease
periods of passing cirrus, otherwise the deep dry air mass tendency
towards subsidence aloft will lead to persistent dry conditions.
Midday temperatures have already warmed to near 60 over much of the
region, and an increase to low to mid 60s is expected. WAA increases
through tonight with air mass aloft moderating even more. Based on
adjusted bias corrections from the past few warm ups and past few
days, we could see daily record highs set Thursday. Low 70s are
likely and mid 70s are possible.

Regarding fire weather: As has been the case guidance continue to
trend down on possible RH, with values as low as 10 percent
possible  Thursday. Even with ideal mixing strongest (non
frequent) gusts would be 15-20 mph in our north, which is below
RFW criteria. No fire weather highlights are expected, but
elevated conditions are possible.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

Main forecast concern will be chance of precipitation the beginning
of next week with minor secondary problem temperatures Friday night
and Saturday. Satellite continuing to show an amplified flow from
the Pacific into North America. That flow over North America also
turns into split flow. Models tended to not be amplified enough with
the ridge over the western portion of the country.

Thursday night...Surface trough will be in the process of moving
through. Depending on where it ends up, the winds could drop off
long enough to let the temperatures. New guidance temperatures look
reasonable and left alone.

Friday/Friday night...Main question is how much does it cool off
from the previous day. Will have plenty of sun with decreasing
northerly winds through the day. Forecast 850 mb temperatures match
up well with what the builder gives me and again did not change.

Surface ridge and light and variable winds will spread over the area
through the night. At the same time some increase in mid and high
level cloud cover is expected in the western half. Went ahead and
reduced temperatures with the best potential for lower than builder
mins in the eastern portion.

Saturday...Surface ridge is in the process of moving off to the east
with return flow/recycled cool air overspreading the area. At the
same time, mid and high level cloud cover continues to stream across
the area with maybe some decrease later in the day. Considering the
above, what the builder gave me was close and did not change them.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Models still showing a lot of
disagreement from Sunday into Monday. The Gfs and Ecmwf still remain
the most alike. However, the Ecmwf now is emphasizing the southern
portion of this next trough splitting off and becoming much stronger
and remaining much further south than previously indicated. The Gfs
is a little faster and still has the northern portion stronger. The
Canadian still remains a big outlier with bringing a closed off mid
level circulation across the area. The ensemble output supports the
Ecmwf/Gfs solutions.

The period of precipitation opportunity looks to be confined to the
latter part of Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This is when the
trough and accompanying jet lift moves through. Newer model data has
slowed the precipitation onset. So after collaboration did lower the
pops a little Sunday afternoon. Otherwise left the remaining pops
alone. Type looks to be liquid. Newer model data does show a low
amount of elevated instability during this time. So with that and
collaboration I did add isolated thunderstorms with the prevailing
rain showers.

The temperatures the forecast builder gave me fits this general
idea, and left alone for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 400 PM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

Conditions...VFR with mainly SKC.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........Expected to meander from the W thru the SW around




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