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000
FXUS63 KGLD 302149
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
249 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL HAVE INCREASING
CLOUDS AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO
FORM ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

BIG CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ARE COMING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ON MONDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGES BEGIN WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE
A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY THERE
IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WILL NOT HAVE AN IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER FOR MONDAY.
MONDAY SHOULD BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AS DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS TO REACH A
LOW LEVEL JET THAT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ON TUESDAY...MODEL DISAGREEMENT REACHES A PEAK. THE GFS MODEL IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON MONDAY AND
ACCELERATES THE FRONT FASTER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL. ACCORDING TO THE
GFS...THE FRONT WOULD PASS THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GFS
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE NAM...CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS
ALL HAVE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...LEADING TO A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. THESE THREE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS SO HAVE FAVORED A BLEND OF THESE THREE. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ADVERTISED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR HIGHS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS BITTERLY
COLD...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER. ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVING SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ON THE BACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT SWINGS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE HIGH MOVES
IN...EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. JUST AS A TEASER...LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER
10S. THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH SOME LOCATIONS
DIPPING TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST COLORADO. WAS
NOT QUITE READY TO GO THIS LOW YET WITH A LACK OF SNOWPACK TO THE
NORTH BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. A
SLOW WARMING TREND...EMPHASIS ON SLOW...BEGINS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION...AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW THE GOODLAND
FORECAST AREA APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ONE PIECE OF
ENERGY...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT
PIECE OF ENERGY DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THEN EJECTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THERE
COULD BE SOME PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. OTHER
THAN THAT AND SOME FORCING IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...THINKING THAT THE TRI-STATE AREA MAY MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH MCK AND GLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART