Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 030938
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

AS OF 3 AM CST...2 AM MST...CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT COMPARED TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLOUDY AS SOME STRATUS HAS
SPREAD IN EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S BUT A COUPLE LOW SPOTS IN EAST COLORADO ARE REPORTING SINGLE
DIGITS. WINDS ARE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D
IMAGERY INDICATES NO PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
IS SPREADING OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...NOW CENTERED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW HAS TAKEN
HOLD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER IDAHO ACCORDING TO LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER POSSIBLE IS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

BEGINNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED COLD
TEMPS TODAY WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FORECASTER RATIONALE.
HOWEVER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE A DIFFERENT STORY. MANY MEMBERS OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A RAPID AND SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO POTENTIALLY LOW
40S. THIS DOES NOT AGREE WITH THE WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFIELD
THAT WILL BE AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AN INVERSION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK...
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WITH REGARDS TO LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL CONCERNS...A VERY
COLD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WIDESPREAD
SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TANK WITH PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. COLDEST SPOTS
WILL BE WHERE WINDS GO CALM...PARTICULARLY IN AREA LOW SPOTS.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT AM CURRENTLY ON THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AS NEEDED TO
REALIZE FORECAST LOWS. HOWEVER...IF WIND SPEEDS REMAIN A LITTLE
HIGHER AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS
MAY STILL OCCUR. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES. IF ONE IS NEEDED...AN ADVISORY WOULD LIKELY COVER LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.

THE PRIMARY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...ARRIVES WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.
IN ADDITION...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LIFT SUGGEST SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
MENTION OF FLURRIES. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OVER NEBRASKA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME MINOR (LESS THAN ONE HALF
INCH) ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

NEW MODEL DATA SHOWING THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. ON
SATURDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER MODELS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN YESTERDAY. PLUS A RATHER STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND UPPER JET SUPPORT ARE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS. MORE MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF THAN YESTERDAY. AFTER CONFERRING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED WOULD NOT ADD ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE DRY CONDITIONS THE INIT
GAVE ME. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL BE FLURRIES AND CAN AFFORD
TO WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE INSERTING ANYTHING. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY.

AS ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG
AND CLOSED OFF SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS SETUP AND LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

THAT COMBINED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFIELD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
AND EXTENDING WELL TO THE NORTH...SUPPORTS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING UP MUCH. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECIDED TO LOWER THE
TEMPERATURES GIVEN TO ME BY THE CRH INIT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES
MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 20KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 12KTS BY
08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED. FROM 17Z-21Z A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG
WITH SOME CLOUDS FLIRTING WITH MVFR CATEGORY. FROM 22Z THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS FALL BELOW 11KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE LEAVING SKC CONDITIONS.

KMCK...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 11Z AS
WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 22KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH GUSTS
DISSIPATING BY 09Z. FROM 12Z-00Z MODELS HINTING AT IFR CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IFR CIGS AND
CANT RULE OUT VLIFR CIGS IF THE NAM MODEL IS CORRECT. HRRR HINTS
AT THEM BUT KEEP THEM JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 01Z JUST A
FEW MID CLOUDS EARLY THEN SKC WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND
7KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99


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