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000
FXUS63 KGLD 042334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
434 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

ARCTIC COLD HAS ENTERED THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR
A WHILE. SOME LIGHT SNOW FELL THIS MORNING...WITH HEAVIEST BANDS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING NEARLY AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS.
TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD BRING A
QUICK INCH IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT OTHERWISE THE COLD WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE LEAD TO SNOWFALL ENDING AND
EVEN SOME CLEARING SKIES...AND HIGHS WERE A CHALLENGE OF BALANCING
THE ADDITIONAL SOLAR RADIATION WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ARE A
BIT STRONGER THAN THE ORIGINAL FORECAST...BUT A BLEND OF 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE HANDLED THE STRONGER WINDS A LITTLE BETTER THAN MOST OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO AND PARTS OF NW KANSAS/SW
NEBRASKA WILL REACH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO...APPROACHING RECORD
COLD VALUES. A QUICK CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL DUE TO A NARROW BAND
ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS AS SUGGESTED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. A FEW
SPOTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70 COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH...BUT ANY
SNOWFALL THAT DOES FALL WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT. SNOWFALL AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ONCE THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY AS COLD
AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD...850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -20 C...VERY COLD
EVEN BY WINTER STANDARDS. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
ZERO...APPROACHING RECORD VALUES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AM VERY CONFIDENT ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WIND CHILLS DROP TO -15 TO -25...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO. IF SKIES CLEAR AS RAPID AS THE RUC IS INDICATING...EVEN
COLDER TEMPS/WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...COLD. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS...EVEN WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS WILL BE
NEAR ZERO MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS AROUND
ZERO. MY CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECAST IS A CONSERVATIVE BLEND...AND IF
SKIES CLEAR NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE RECORD LOWS IN
THE -5 TO -15F BELOW ZERO RANGE. EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WE
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER WIND CHILL ADVISORIES BOTH NIGHTS.

MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE ON THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. BEYOND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THE FORECAST SHOULD
REMAIN DRY DURING THESE PERIODS. I DECIDED AGAINST MENTION OF
FLURRIES...THOUGH I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIOD THURSDAY IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
LOOKS TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING
OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVES TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SUNDAY. VERY GOOD
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THIS
FEATURE...HOWEVER THERE IS LESS CONTINUITY ON THE TRACK AND THIS
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS OVER OUR CWA. DURING THIS
FORECAST UPDATE I BUMPED POPS UP SOME ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
SNOW. BEST GUESS BASED ON A MEAN STORM TRACK PUTS SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE 1-3" RANGE OVER OUR CWA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SETTING UP.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AND H5 PATTERN BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL. MODELS DO
ADVERTISE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS FINALLY APPROACHING (OR
GOING ABOVE) FREEZING BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN JET STREAM
STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY ACTIVE HOWEVER SO ADDITIONAL REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR COULD KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 424 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
BOTH SITES. HOWEVER...KGLD COULD SEE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY IN EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE TERMINAL BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z. THE MAIN FORCING INDUCING
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
KMCK...SO NO LIGHT SNOW IS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES TONIGHT.

CURRENT DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY (DEC 5)...
GOODLAND.....-8  (1972)
HILL CITY....-5  (1909)
BURLINGTON...-11 (1972)
MCCOOK.......-10 (1909)
YUMA.........-5
TRIBUNE......-2
COLBY........-8

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>003-013-014-027.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...ALW
CLIMATE...JJM