187
FXUS63 KGLD 080755
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
155 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are possible Tuesday with the main threat of strong to
  damaging wind gusts.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Central plains remains under northwest flow around a ridge
centered over the Four Corners. Another embedded shortwave
trough will move through this afternoon and evening with a
chance for showers and thunderstorms. CAMs have been highly
variable with significant run-to-run changes, leading to low
confidence in how today will evolve. Instability will be up to
1500 j/kg and deep layer shear around 30 kts, not much different
than the last few days which saw robust convection develop. So
if something can get going not out of the question for another
round of severe storms with wind the main hazard, perhaps some
isolated hail in initial stages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 818 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The severe weather threat has diminished though some isolated
showers and thunderstorms may linger into the late evening and
early overnight hours. Thereafter expecting the sky to clear and
should winds become light and conditions be allowed to radiate
out there is the possibility of some patchy fog, especially in
any low lying areas and more so if they have been saturated in
rain the past 24 to 48 hours. Dewpoints were around 60 during
max temperatures today and using that as a threshold, should
any locations fall at or below there is the threat of lower
visibilities with patchy fog during the morning hours. Lows
tonight are forecast in the mid to upper 50s for the over half
of the forecast area encompassing east-central CO, southwest NE
and northeast KS. Again, dependence on how quickly and effectively
clouds clear with todays shower and thunderstorm activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Generally, weak ridging will persist over the area for the long
term forecast Tuesday through the weekend. As a result, there
will be the potential for some isolated to scattered storms
daily in the afternoon and evening hours through the week and
weekend. The best location for these storms would be mainly for
our western half of the area, but everywhere could see storms
daily. Generally, there is still some uncertainty as to the
severity of these storms. At least for Tuesday, we are outlooked
in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather, so a few of these storms
could be severe with the main risks being winds greater than
60mph and large hail tomorrow. Beyond tomorrow, the storms look
to be primarily sub-severe, but we will continue to monitor for
changes. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as we go toward the
end of the workweek. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s
across the area, so be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent
breaks if you will be spending time outdoors! MSW

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1022 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Dry conditions are currently forecast tonight for each terminal.
Am watching a few storms entering Morgan county in Colorado that
have been persistent over the past 60-90 minutes; however these
storms will be moving across areas where instability should be
waned from earlier storms so am giving it a less than 5% of
impacting the KGLD terminal. For KMCK, am seeing a signal for
stratus and/or fog around 11Z-15Z but this may end up staying
north of Red Willow county; have kept the TAF VFR for now but do
indicate the potential in the form of 6sm BR and SCT010.
Another potential for storms or outflow from storms to move
through the KGLD terminal after 00Z Wednesday so have introduced
a PROB30 for this. Most guidance has been trending towards this
scenario so will be interesting to see if the trend continues.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Williams
AVIATION...Trigg