Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
726 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Issued at 724 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Expired Red Flag Warning for all counties in our CWA.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...sunny skies for all
with hot and dry conditions with temperatures currently well into
the 90s for all locales. Winds are ranging from the SW to the SE
across the area with most spots seeing 10-20 mph w/ gusts around 30-
35 mph.

For the rest of the afternoon hrs into this evening...dry and clear
conditions will persist with winds abating some towards sunset.
Despite clear skies and southerly winds overnight do expect warmer
temps for the lows. Looking for 50s west...and 60s along and east of
Highway 25.

Going into Friday...main wx issue for the day will be the potential
for some severe wx to develop late in the day. Gradient tightens
again thru the day as a frontal boundary approaches the region with
gusts 20-30 mph possible. It does look that models want to focus any
potential precipitation Friday along and just east of the front that
sets up over the area. Instability enough to warrant strong to
severe conditions crop up after 18z. With the uncertainty as to
where the boundary exactly sets up...have expanded the narrow area
of pops outward to get a slightly broader coverage...but the main
focus will occur in central zones. SPC does have the area under
Marginal Risk. Before the arrival of increased clouds along with
precip late...the area will see highs top off from the upper 80s
along and west of the the lower and mid 90s east of the

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

An active pattern will be in place from the end of this week
through  the beginning of next week. The primary forecast
concerns during this time period are a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms across the forecast area on Friday afternoon
followed by a slight risk of excessive rainfall potentially
leading to flash flooding primarily on Saturday and Saturday

The pattern over the United States becomes increasingly amplified
on Friday and Saturday as a deep trough of lower pressure digs
over the western U.S. while a large area of high pressure remains
in place from the plains states to the east coast. This will
produce a strong south southwesterly flow aloft over the central
high plains region that will persist from Friday through Monday
until the pattern begins to modify as individual short wave
troughs rotate around the main upper low and begin lifting out of
the upper trough across the Rockies and towards the northern
plains. A surface cold front moving into the region will parallel
the upper flow and is expected to move very little from late
Friday through early Sunday. With high temperatures still in the
lower 90s on Friday as the front moves in, instabilities and shear
ahead of and along the front could lead to the development of
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening that may become
strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Temperatures cool through the weekend as the frontal boundary
moves slowly eastward. The possibility of severe storms lessens on
Saturday, but the potential for heavy rainfall remains on
Saturday into Sunday as the the entire column moistens up and
becomes nearly saturated over a greater depth. The airmass begins
to dry out from west to east Monday into Tuesday as the pattern
begins to shift east and the major trough over the west begins to
lift out slowly east of the Rockies. High temperatures will remain
mostly in the 60s on Monday and Tuesday before warming back into
the 70s as conditions dry out towards the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 635 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of
the TAF period. LLWS up to 45 knots at times will be main concern
for aviators at both the Goodland and McCook terminals.




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