Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280824
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
124 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS
SUGGEST PEAK WIND GUST POTENTIAL AT AROUND 40KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A SYSTEM CLIMBING THE
RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE EVENING THEN LIGHT
RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND NAM NOTABLY DRY AT
THIS POINT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF A NORTON TO LEOTI LINE IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE TROUGHS ARRIVAL WILL IMPACT CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AS WELL AS COLD FRONTS ARRIVAL. ONCE THE FRONT DOES MOVE
THROUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED. STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY BEFORE
DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.

SUNDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE (FOR THIS MODEL CYCLE) THAT CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE LEAVING A MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY. DURING
THE NIGHT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS FROM THE WEST
PRODUCING A PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. MAY SEE A BIT OF
GUSTINESS TO THE WIND DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THEY SUBSIDE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 20S
TO LOW 30S (EAST TO WEST). HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF/GFS
OF -3C TO -14C (WEST TO EAST) AND LATEST MEX GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT
READINGS A FEW TO PERHAPS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY 10F TO 16F...COLDEST ACROSS THE EAST AND PARTS OF FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

MONDAY...SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THAT PERHAPS MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
(PER MODEL RH FORECASTS) THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SHOULD BE DRY
DURING THE DAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR MUCH OF OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES WHERE 850-500RH MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED FORECAST PROCEDURE PAINTS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MCCOOK
AND NORTON AREAS OVERNIGHT...CANT SAY IT WONT HAPPEN PER ABOVE
MENTIONED 850-500 MOISTURE SO WILL RIDE WITH IT FOR NOW. WARM AIR
ALOFT NUDGES ITS WAY INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA UNDER THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW 30S
EAST AND LOW 40S WEST LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE 850MB FORECAST TEMPS. LOW
TEMPERATURES MID TEENS EAST TO LOW 20S WEST.

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE EXTENDED PROCEDURES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE NIGHT AS ECMWF/GFS 850-
500RH FORECASTS PUSH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM AND CURRENT FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 30S EAST
TO LOW/MID 40S WEST LOOKS REASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE 8-12KT
RANGE AFTER 09Z AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH
PREVAILING NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30-35KT RANGE...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z...HOWEVER PREVAILING
WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-20KT WITH TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINING IN
PLACE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR


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