Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 190934 CCA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER OK PANHANDLE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TREAT BASIN
BUILDING EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. HIGH PRESSURE IS GENERALLY IN PLACES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

EARLY THIS MORNING...AXIS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED LATE LAST NIGHT
GENERALLY ALONG HWY 25 AND HWY 83 CORRIDOR BEHIND STRATUS DECK TO
THE EAST. WEST OF THIS...BL HAS BEEN TOO DRY FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WITH NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. RAP/HRRR BOTH HAVE
GOOD REFLECTION OF THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE FOG OVER OUR CWA...AND
GENERALLY KEEP MAIN AXIS OF DENSE FOG WHERE IT IS...IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AROUND 12-13Z. DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE
DENSE FOG AND GUIDANCE TRENDING AWAY FROM WIDESPREAD COVERAGE I
DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH HANDLING THIS EVENT WITH SPS.

TODAY...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY MIDDAY AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
EAST TO THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS MODERATING TO THE
40S/NEAR 50 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA (COOLER IN YUMA COUNTY WHERE SNOW
PACK LINGERS).

TONIGHT-WE MAY SEE FOG REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS...WHICH
COULD IMPACT OUR EASTERN CWA. THOUGH NAM/SREF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
SIGNAL FOR THIS...AS LOW SHIFTS EAST AIR MASS WILL BE CHANGING WITH
LOWER BL MOISTURE PRESENT AND IM NOT AS SURE CURRENT MODEL
COVERAGE/DEPICTION IS REALISTIC. I ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN OUR
EAST AHEAD OF MAIN SURFACE TROUGH TO COVER POTENTIAL.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH REDEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH...SURFACE TROUGHING AND INCREASING WAA WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING TEMPS TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. DEPENDING ON MIXING (WHICH
COULD BE LIMITED BY CLOUDS)...HIGHS BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN MIDDLE
50S WITH DECREASING IMPACT FROM SNOW PACK IN THE NORTHWEST AS IT
CONTINUES TO DEGRADE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. I COULD ACTUALLY SEE
SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH THE UPPER 50S SUNDAY BASED ON CURRENT
925/850 MB TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOBES OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY COMBINED WITH INCREASING
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COULD SUPPORT SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO OUR CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A GOOD DRY LAYER THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD HAVE TO SATURATE
THROUGH. TEMP PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT RAIN...WITH SATURATION TO
WET BULB TEMPS NEAR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE DUE TO DRY LAYER AND POSITION OF
THESE BANDS...I KEPT POP MENTION LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.  BASED ON THE
LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD...CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS...EXPECTING NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
START AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER AREAS WILL RECEIVE
RAIN MONDAY MORNING.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SURFACE WARMING WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE IN THE AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AFTER
SUNSET.  ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE FORECASTING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES
OF SNOW...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THOSE FORECAST AMOUNTS DUE TO
RUNNING ACCUMULATIONS IN PERIODS OF PHASE CHANGE. THEREFORE...THE
FORECAST REFLECTS TOTAL VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH AT THIS TIME.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE TRI STATE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S.  BLENDED POP FORECAST WAS
HINTING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT
DECIDED TO ELIMINATE POPS DUE TO THE 500 MB AXIS BEING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TUESDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION WILL COME FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.  ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT...GUIDANCE IS SEEMINGLY SLOWING
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA TOWARDS A THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY ARRIVAL. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN COLD SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  AT THIS
TIME...THINKING A LITTLE OVER AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  THIS AMOUNT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD THRU 13Z FRIDAY VFR/MVFR MIX WITH 3-6SM IN FOG WITH
BKN060 AND KMCK...THRU 15Z FRI...WILL HAVE A MIX OF IFR AND BELOW
AS FOG WILL BRING VISIBILITY RANGING 2SM DOWN TO 1/4SM AT TIMES
AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC002-010. BUT AFT 13Z-15Z THIS MORNING
BOTH SITES VFR WITH SCT100-150. WINDS VARIABLE AN LIGHT THRU 13Z-
15Z...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN


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