Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 191204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
504 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 407 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

CAA has continue into the area this morning. Temperatures will
continue to trend downward today and tomorrow as a low continues
to develop east of our area. Highs will have a drastic range from
the mid 20s in the northern half of our CWA versus our southern
counties reaching the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Tonight, we will finally see the system move through the area
quickly. Expecting snowfall totals of 1 to 2 inches for our
northern CWA. Wednesday morning, temperatures are expected to
feel in the negative single digits for several hours. Not low
enough to meet any advisory criteria, but felt it was worth

Wednesday, cooler temperatures will spread more evenly across the
Tri-State region bringing our max temperatures in the 20s. Lastly,
Wednesday night, expect single digit lows, with the temperatures
feeling as if they were negative single digits.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

Wednesday to Friday: A Canadian airmass extending southward into
the region Wed/Wed night will shift eastward to the Great Lakes
Thu/Thu night as cyclonic flow /troughing/ aloft becomes more
pronounced over the Intermountain West and a lee cyclone develops
in E/SE Colorado. With the above in mind, expect cold temperatures
lingering Wed/Wed night followed by a warming trend on Thu and Fri.

Light precipitation cannot be ruled out at times Thu-Fri, presumably
in assoc/w episodic warm advection and shallow frontogenesis (on
the N/NE periphery of a waxing/waning lee cyclone) modulated by a
series of small amplitude shortwaves ejecting northeast from the
Desert Southwest into the High Plains. With such a pattern,
confidence is very low with regard to whether or not light
precipitation will develop in eastern Colorado and western KS, let
alone timing, p-type, or

Friday night to Sunday: The west CONUS trough is expected to
become progressive Fri night into Sat as potent shortwave energy
digs southeast ashore the Pacific coast. Guidance suggests that this
feature will de-amplify as it traverses the Rockies and progresses
into the Central Plains early Saturday. Some potential for light
precipitation will exist as this feature progresses east of the
Rockies across portions of the Southern/Central Plains Fri night
and Sat, however, confidence is low given the increasingly
complex/progressive synoptic pattern evolving over North America
this weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 453 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

Early visibility concern for aviators as light snow flurries have
been impacting the terminals. Condition will improve this
afternoon. However, this will repeat again tonight as a system
moves through the area. Throughout the remainder of the TAF
period, sub-vfr conditions will be possible from lower cloud decks.
Additionally, locally gusty winds of 20-25 knots will impact both
the Goodland and McCook terminals.




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