Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 310721
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
121 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR TRW/RW THAT HAS DEVELOPED...AND
WILL CARRY THRU UNTIL NEXT ESTF AND/OR 12Z THIS MORNING. BULK OF
ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED OVER AREAS EAST OF GOODLAND.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING INTO KGLD SO HAVE PLACED VCTS
BACK INTO TAF. KGLD VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
KTS OVER KGLD AT PRESENT TIME WITH RAP MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATING
STRONG WINDS OVER KMCK. MAINTAINED LLWS IN TAF WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED VCTS INTO KMCK TAF AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE TS INTO KGLD TAF AS
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT CONVECTION STAYS NORTHEAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND CALM WEATHER BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH


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