Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1158 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Cold front has stalled along the southeastern fringes of the
forecast area from Hill City to Gove. It may back up slightly this
afternoon and be the focus for isolated thunderstorm development
with the upper forcing still lagging over the central Rockies. If
a storm does develop...the environment will be conducive for
supercells with strong instability of up to 4000 j/kg and deep
layer shear of around 50kts. The aforementioned shortwave trough
will move out of northeast Colorado this evening and across the
northern tier of counties overnight. Point soundings show up to
2000 j/kg of elevated CAPE with little CIN in areas north of
Interstate 70 between 06z and 12z. High res model guidance shows
widespread qpf in that area. These slightly elevated thunderstorms
will be capable of producing large hail. In addition to the
thunderstorm threat...low level moisture will increase with light
southeasterly winds with areas of fog and low clouds likely
developing. Visibility could drop to less than a mile at times in
patchy dense fog which may linger through the mid morning hours.

The set up for Tuesday afternoon has strong to extreme
instability developing along and north of a Flagler to Tribune
line...most of the forecast area. Deep layer shear will be
slightly lower compared to today, around 40kts, but will be more
than sufficient for supercells. Problem as it has been the last
few days will be relatively weak upper forcing. Most likely
scenario will see isolated to widely scattered storms develop in
the mid to late afternoon hours in northeast Colorado as the next
shortwave emerges onto the plains and begins to move eastward into
the instability axis. Confidence is rather low due to the weak
synoptic scale forcing on the potential for anything more than an
isolated severe threat through Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Thursday the main energy moves out from the Central and Southern
Rockies providing stronger synoptic scale forcing for thunderstorms.
Wraparound precipitation will continue into Friday with the slow
moving upper level system. Over the weekend models continue to be
quite wet as they show more zonal flow orientation with embedded
shortwave troughs and copious low level moisture available. This may
increase the severe potential over the weekend, depending on how the
instability axis sets up. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through this afternoon.
TONIGHT...expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop after
midnight as well as areas of fog and low clouds. Thunderstorms
will be slightly elevated and capable of producing large hail.
KMCK will see the best chance of a thunderstorm with most staying
north of KGLD. Fog and low clouds will lift out around mid morning
on Tuesday.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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