Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 060520
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1020 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE RETREATS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE
WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN.  DESPITE THE COLDER AIR
MASS...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE INVERSION REMAINING OVER THE TRI-STATE
AREA.  THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
MIXING TO THE GROUND DURING THE NIGHT.  IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE FRONT.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE MORE THAN CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SUNDAY THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.  THE COOLING
EFFECT OF THE DEEP SNOWFIELD WILL HELP KEEP AN INVERSION IN
PLACE...THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF WIND ABLE TO MIX DOWN.  DESPITE
THE LIMITED MIXING...GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.  IF TEMPERATURES WARM MORE THAN FORECAST...ANTICIPATE THE
WINDS TO BE STRONGER YET.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE STRONG WINDS WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTING.  AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LESSENS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY BUILDS ONTO
THE PLAINS.  A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING A
QUICK WARM UP BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY.  DESPITE THE DIFFERENT
FRONTAL PASSAGES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AFTER
MONDAY.  MAIN DETERMINING FACTOR WILL BE THE EFFECT THE MELTING
SNOWFIELD WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR WINDS...KGLD WILL HAVE WNW AROUND 10KTS BECOME WSW BY 16Z
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO WNW AFT 00Z SUNDAY. FOR
KMCK...WNW AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN


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