Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 261135
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
535 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A FEW MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EJECT OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE EXITING 500MB SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.  THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY MOVES BACK NORTHWARD AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH.

LIFT OVER THE FRONT INCREASES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
NORTH OF THE FRONT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE STABLE.  THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL
POOL.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF
THE AREA WITH LIFT OVER THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF IT STRENGTHENING.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL...ONLY AROUND 25KTS OR
LESS...EXCEPT JUST AHEAD OF THE 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHERE 30 KTS
WILL DEVELOP.  SOUNDINGS ALONG THE FRONT AHEAD OF THE 700MB THROUGH
INDICATE A BROAD CAPE PROFILE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE FOR A FEW
HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD SO THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO ROUGHLY 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER TO
DEVELOP. MEAN STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25MPH SO
STORMS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME IN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR/CAPE
ENVIRONMENT.  ASIDE FROM LARGE HAIL...MODERATE RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM ROUGHLY LEOTI TO HILL CITY AND
NORTON WHERE STORM MOTION WILL BE ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG MID LEVEL
LIFT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM LAST NIGHT...PUSHING THE FRONT EAST OF
THE AREA.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH.  MEAN STORM MOTION IS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND INCREASES
TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SINCE THIS IS A SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST
NIGHT...ANTICIPATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO DEVELOP JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.  WITH SLOWER STORM MOTIONS DURING THE EVENING AND IN THE
DEEPLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD FOR THAT AREA
AS WELL AS A FEW COUNTIES EAST OF THE CO LINE DUE TO THE PROLONGED
HEAVY RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO WHAT FELL LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE OBSCURE AS FAR AS
FINDING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO REALLY KEY IN ON TO DETERMINE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF STORM ACTIVITY DUE TO MORE DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE AREA.  AS WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
WHILE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT MOVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE FRONT
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS AND
CAPE PROFILES IN THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLY HALF DOLLAR SIZE OR SMALLER. DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORM
COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT EXTENSIVE EAST OF THE RETREATING FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT...NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...SHOULD START TO MOVE BACK SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  LIFT INCREASES OVER THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST SO BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
TRIGGER FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ABOVE IT. AS
A RESULT HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASES TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE REMAIN UNCHANGED...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION MEAN STORM MOTION
WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE AXIS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY MOVE
SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE PRECIP.
FORECAST DUE TO A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LIFT OVER THE AREA. AM
THINKING THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WITH SOME LINGERING RAINFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH DURING
THE NIGHT. DUE TO TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES NOT BEING AS STEEP AS
THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A
CONCERN.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON SATURDAY THAT PUSHES EASTWARD
OVER THE PLAINS STATES AS THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVES
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BEGINS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES.  WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY
WITH THE JET SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT
TO CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SWEEPING THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY AND MOVING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SAG FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
TO INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. CURRENT RADAR INDICATES
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO BE PAST KMCK
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL BEGIN
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH OVER
THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS. THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     KSZ001-013.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JTL



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