Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 271953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
153 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

The short term forecast focus will be on the possibility of
thunderstorms across the central high plains region from late this
afternoon through tonight and again Thursday afternoon into Thursday

The Central High Plains region remains under an increasingly
northwest flow aloft with the upper level high pressure area over
the southern Great Basin region and a trough over the Mississippi
valley region deepening in response to a series of short wave trough
moving through the upper flow into the central plains.  These waves
will continue to track through the forecast area both this evening
and again on Thursday afternoon and evening.  This is favorable
timing for thunderstorm enhancement this evening and tomorrow
afternoon.  While the possibility for isolated severe thunderstorms
exists this evening, there is a stronger possibility of severe
storms on Thursday as there will be better moisture and shear
available for storms to work with. Supercell thunderstorms are
possible late in the day, likely continuing into Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

The extended period will start with a ridge in the western CONUS and
a trough in the eastern CONUS. This will bring an upper level
northwest flow over the CWA Thursday evening through late Friday
night/early Saturday morning. Come Saturday, the trough will begin
to push east and the ridge will move over the CWA.

Thursday night will have the greatest potential for storms across
the region. There is a mid-level shortwave that will move over the
CWA from the late afternoon through the overnight hours which will
help with lift. That, in combination with favorable instabilty
factors of: MUCAPEs 2500-3500 J/kg, effective bulk shear around 55-
65 kts, dew points around 55-65 degrees Fahrenheit and lapse rates
at 7+ C/km; will create a favorable environment for storms to
develop. Large hail and damaging winds are possible where supercells
develop; an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out.
Based off the current model runs the GFS and NAM differ slightly on
location of the strongest storm potential, yet timing are very
similar. The NAM has the majority of the CWA under a higher
potential for severe storms, whereas the GFS has the severe
potential more in the eastern half of the CWA. This differs slightly
from the 06Z run of the GFS; so time will tell where the strongest
storms will develop.

Friday, another round of storms is possible but does not look as
severe of a threat as Thursday. The trough begins to push further
south and east, so the strongest storm potential looks to be south
and southeast of the CWA. The current NAM model run shows the region
to be dry Friday but the GFS and European have precipitation
potential in the late afternoon into the evening, with the GFS
keeping PoP chances into the overnight hours. Instability factors do
not look impressive, with MUCAPEs only abound 1000-2000 J/kg and
weak lapse rates and effective bulk shear.

Saturday through Wednesday, look to be fairly similar in upper level
pattern and precipitation potential. The region will be impacted by
a ridge but each day, excluding Sunday which is expected to be dry,
mid-level shortwaves move through the general flow and could
potentially help initiate some isolated storms. Moisture from the
Gulf of California and Arizona will potentially make its way up into
the region each afternoon and evening, which will be the main source
of moisture. As the end of the extended period approaches, the GFS
and European start to differ slightly on upper level pattern. The
GFS has the region still impacted by a more amplified ridge with a
trough skimming the northwest states and the European has more of a
zonal flow over the region with the trough skimming the north
central states. Overall, the model differences don`t seem to be
making a major impact on the CWA at this time, but will be keeping
an eye on it as the middle of next week approaches.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Ongoing thunderstorm in MCK as of the TAF issuance was producing
heavy rain and a decrease in visibility to less than 3 miles.
However, this will be short lived as the storm continues to move
off to the southeast with VFR conditions to prevail after the
storm moves out. Will likely update the MCK TAF within the hour
once it moves out. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
continue around the MCK area through the afternoon and evening
hours with the possibility of storms diminishing rapidly by
06Z and through the remainder of the night. Expect thunderstorms
to return to the area beginning around mid day on Thursday with a
rapid increase in coverage after the current valid time period of
the TAF that ends at 18Z Thursday.

Expect VFR conditions to prevail at GLD with the possibility of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms between 22Z-06Z. Thunderstorms
possibility will decrease rapidly after 06Z with additional storms
expected to return rapidly after the current valid time period of
the TAF ending at 18Z on Thursday.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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