Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 190821
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY.  BY
TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
WYOMING/EASTERN UTAH.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE FA DUE TO THE
LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT IT IS STAYING SOUTH OF THE FA.  THE HRRR
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY STRATUS OVER THE AREA. PLAN TO MONITOR AND
MAKE FINAL DECISION PRIOR TO ISSUANCE.

850 TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TUESDAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING AND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ACROSS THE AREA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY DEPICTED DURING BETWEEN
18Z-06Z...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
BY WEEKS END AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXCEPT FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TO REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

KGLD...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BY 08Z THEN SOUTHWEST BY 14Z AROUND
10KTS THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH 5-10KTS AROUND 17Z AND FINALLY
NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BY 21Z. MAY SEE A PERIOD LGT/VRB WINDS IN THE
02Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER LEVELS. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS IN THE
10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME PER NAM SOLUTION. GFS SHOWS SIMILAR SCENARIO
BUT BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES A BIT LESS.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 07KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 13Z-19Z.
AROUND 20Z THROUGH 01Z LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 05KTS THEN
BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 02Z THROUGH 06Z. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER
LEVELS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99


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