Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 140951

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
251 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

Weak shortwave trough moving down the Front Range is producing
scattered flurries overnight. Observations have shown visibility
reductions of 3-5 miles but only trace amounts of precipitation.
The activity is quickly pushing south and should be done by around
15z this morning with minimal impacts. Secondary shortwave trough
moving out of the northern plains this afternoon will bring low
chances for rain/snow showers to eastern parts of the area. Once
again, measurable precipitation amounts will be low due to limited
moisture, weak forcing and fast movement in the northwest flow.

Upper ridge rebuilds for Friday with temperatures recovering to
the middle and upper 50s. Relative humidity values will plummet to
around 15 percent in the afternoon with a dry, downsloping
westerly wind. However, wind speeds currently fall short of
criteria for critical fire weather conditions, though with the
very dry fuels might see some elevated conditions.

Saturday will be a transitional day as the upper ridge flattens
ahead of the next system digging into the Four Corners.
Temperatures will hinge on timing of a cold front, which will
makes its way through the area during the morning to early
afternoon hours. Any precipitation chances will hold off until
Saturday night, with a weak shortwave trough moving northward
ahead of the western system. Thermal profiles will be cold enough
for light snow by that time, though accumulations, if any, will be
very light, primarily in eastern Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

There is good agreement between the global models regarding a deep
H5 trough and associated cold front that will traverse the region on
Sunday. A relatively strong theta-e boundary will provide a focus
for light snow to develop along the front as it pushes from
northwest to southeast. Not expecting much in the way of
accumulations as QPF is near 0.01 inch as the boundary moves through
the region. High temperatures on Sunday will likely not climb out of
the 30s across much of the CWA.

For Monday and Tuesday, ridging will influence the region from west
to east. Afternoon highs will rebound back into the 50s as a result
with dry conditions expected both days.

Ridge axis passes to our east as we head into Wednesday with
relatively strong trough approaching the region from the west.
Models sharply disagree both temporally and spatially with this
system, especially as we head into Thursday afternoon. ECMWF remains
more progressive, followed by the Canadian, with the GFS being the
slowest and deepest of the three. Although there are differences in
the guidance, the consensus does agree upon a pattern change that
will likely bring much colder air to the central High Plains going
into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1008 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

MCK and GLD will start out VFR at 06Z with a lowering of the
ceilings expected through the night. MCK is expected to remain VFR
while GLD could see some non-prevailing MVFR conditions between
14-16Z due to lower ceilings. After 16Z, expect northwest winds to
also increase dramatically with gusts in the 30-35kt range through
the afternoon. By 01Z, expect ceilings to be diminishing with the
sky condition becoming scattered along with the winds becoming
light through the remainder of the TAF period.




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