Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 040640
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST IS WORKING OUT PRETTY WELL AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE
DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE RATHER LARGE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE THE COLUMN SATURATES AND ALLOWS
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. SO SLOWED THE ARRIVAL THE SNOWFALL A
LITTLE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS ARE NORTH AT 15-20 MPH...GUSTING TO
30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BEHIND OUR
LATEST COLD FRONT PASSAGE. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH
IS LOCATED OVER MONTANA...HEADING SOUTHEAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. ALOFT...PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE IS LOCATED FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WYOMING
INTO NW COLORADO AND UTAH...HEADING EAST.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...MAIN STORY IS THE ANTICIPATED
SNOWFALL. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE SWINGS THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO ANOTHER PASSING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS.
FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS APPEAR MILDLY IMPRESSIVE. SEVERAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...ALONG WITH MANY GLOBAL MODELS...INDICATE A BAND
OF SNOW INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...SPREADING
EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THEN...AS THE NEXT COULD FRONT
TRANSITIONS THROUGH...THE BAND IS FORCED SOUTH. A SECONDARY BAND
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS...A SNOW MINIMUM MAY OCCUR BUT
WHERE THIS MINIMUM AMOUNT OF SNOW FALLS IS THE TOUGH QUESTION TO
ANSWER. OVERALL...DID INCREASE POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE REASON FOR INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS IS THAT VERY COLD AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. SOUNDING PROFILES AND FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT A HIGHER SNOW:LIQUID RATIO WAS NECESSARY. EVEN THOUGH
FORECAST LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY THE SAME...USED A NEAR 20:1
SNOW:LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS EVENING BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THIS
LEADS TO 1-2 INCHES OF DRY FLUFFY SNOW OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH
2-3 INCHES OF DRY SNOW OVER EAST COLORADO. WITH THIS SNOW...LIGHT
WINDS WOULD INDICATE THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRIFTING SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED. ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SNOW-COVERED AND SLICK.

SNOW GRADUALLY SLIDES OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE OBSERVED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WARMEST TEMPERATURES FORECAST WHERE MOST SUNLIGHT IS
OBSERVED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
ELSEWHERE...FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A WEAK ZONAL FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS THE JET PULLS NORTH INTO
CANADA. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST GIVEN THE MODEL TENDENCY
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY...AND THEY MAY APPROACH THE 70S BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH FROM THE 00Z TAFS. MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
DATA. FOR KGLD...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL 14Z. BEGINNING AT 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. BEGINNING IN THE LATE MORNING...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...WHEN A MORE INTENSE BAND OF SNOW MOVES ACROSS...
OCCASIONAL IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THE SNOW WILL
END BY 12Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING UNTIL 18Z. AT THAT
TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER


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