Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1125 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Update to forecast to adjust high temps for today. Based on the
conditions across the CWA from a few hours ago...temps have not
shown much rebound despite seeing some sunshine working thru the
extensive coverage of low clouds. As a result have dropped highs
for today by a few degrees.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 241 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

The primary short term forecast concern is the possibility
isolated strong to severe storms late in the day on Monday.

Rain showers will lift out of the forecast area today as the large
low pressure system lifts through the central plains states
towards the Great Lakes region. Conditions will dry out briefly from
this afternoon through Sunday morning as surface high pressure
moves into the region and temperatures warm. A few thunderstorms
are possible Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak disturbance
moves east of the Rockies. A chance of thunderstorms returns
again late Monday as a cold front moves through the region and a
short wave trough rotates around the main upper low over the Great
Lakes region and sweeps across the central high plains. A stronger
upper trough is expected to follow the initial short wave trough,
sweeping across the region Monday night. A few storms late Monday
through Monday evening may be strong to severe with strong to
damaging winds and hail.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

For Tuesday, precipitation chances taper off as an upper trough
exits the region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure pushes into the
High Plains and temporarily cools temperatures. Conditions dry out
in time for Tuesday night when meridional flow develops aloft. Dry
weather continues on Wednesday and Thursday when an upper ridge
builds into the area. The ridge and downslope flow support a warming
trend through the end of the work week. Precipitation returns to the
forecast Thursday night and Friday as the ridge progresses east,
disturbances pass through the westerly flow aloft, and a cold front
approaches the High Plains.

Temperatures warm throughout the extended period, from the 60s on
Tuesday to the upper 70s/low 80s on Thursday and Friday. Low
temperatures follow the trend, warming from the upper 30s/low 40s
Tuesday night to the low/mid 50s Thursday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

For KGLD...MVFR(BKN022) skies thru 20z...becoming VFR thereafter
with BKN035 going to FEW-SCT200 by 03z tonight. There will be the
chance for a passing shower thru 20z with no expected visibility
reduction. Winds NNW 10-20kts thru 03z Sunday. Gusts to 25kts
thru 20z. After 03z Sunday...NW around 5 kts thru 14z then
becoming N.

For KMCK...MVFR conditions thru 21z with ceilings ranging from
BKN015-025. From 21z onward...VFR skies with BKN035 giving way to
FEW-SCT200 by 03z Sunday. Winds NW 10-20kts thru 03z Sunday...then
WNW around 5kts.




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