Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280524
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REGION WITH TEMPS AS OF 04Z RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS DOWN TO THE
MID SINGLE NUMBERS. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST THRU 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING TO SHOW CLEAR CONDITIONS AS CURRENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT
WERE SUPPOSED TO MOVE OVER AREA HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH. THE NEXT BATCH
CURRENTLY IN THE IDAHO VICINITY WILL TAKE A WHILE TO ARRIVE TO
AFFECT SKY COND. EXPECTING TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP
TOWARDS OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THE ONLY THING PREVENT MAJOR DROP IN
TEMPS IS THE WEAK WSW FLOW OVER AREA. IF THIS SHOULD DROP
OFF...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN TO ACCT FOR
LACK OF MIXED AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND DECREASE UNDER 5 MPH AS ELONGATED SFC
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...MAYBE A FEW
AROUND ZERO...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE
THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE DAYS WORTH OF
ONGOING LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE STRONGER JET STREAM WINDS TURN THE CORNER AROUND THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND MAKE THEIR
WAY THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE ENTIRE JET SAGS SOUTH AND CUTS ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE UNITED STATES. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SLIDE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BETWEEN
5-10 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE -15 TO -25 OR SLIGHTLY COLDER RANGE THAT WILL
REQUIRE SOME KIND OF HIGHLIGHT. ALSO ROUGHLY DURING THIS TIME AS
COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND THE JET STREAM RESIDES
OVERHEAD...MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN THE DAY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS SNOWFALL IS WHERE SOME OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP. THE
GFS IS BEGINNING SNOW ABOUT ONE PERIOD EARLIER THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF MAY BE HANGING ONTO THE SNOW A
LITTLE TOO LONG. THE GENERAL FEELING IS THE GFS IS INITIATING THE
SNOW IN THE UPSLOPE AREA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN A LITTLE
EARLY...WHILE NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE DONE AN ADEQUATE JOB YET OF
RESOLVING THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
THROUGH THE FLOW AS IT EVOLVES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER THAT IS DEEPENING AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A BROAD-
BRUSHED COMPROMISE OF SOLUTIONS IN THE GRIDS THAT ARE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH AN EARLIER INITIATION OF SNOW AND HAVE POPS
ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY SINCE THERE IS ENOUGH OF
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS TO INSPIRE SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING AT LEAST MINIMAL ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A STATEMENT IN THE FUTURE...BUT IT WILL BEAR FURTHER REVIEW TO SEE
IF SNOW AMOUNTS AND COLD TEMPERATURES COULD EVENTUALLY BE COMBINED
INTO SOME TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER STATEMENT.

IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND THE COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY. DEPENDING UPON
THE PATH THIS LOW CENTER TAKES...SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA COULD VARY CHANGE QUITE A BIT BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WILL TRANSITION TO SCT120-150 BY 14Z-16Z...THEN BY 00Z
BKN100-120 WITH SOME LOW CLOUD NEAR SCT040 WITH LIGHT FLURRIES.
WINDS FOR KGLD...WSW 5-10KTS. WINDS FOR KMCK WSW 5-10KTS BECOMING
SOUTH NEAR 10KTS BY 16Z SUNDAY MORNING...THEN VRB05KT BY 02Z
MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN



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