Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 270915
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.1 TO 1.7
INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. MOISTURE BELOW
700MB REMAINS SPARSE BUT ABOVE THAT LEVEL ITS PLENTIFUL. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL/COLD FRONT GENERALLY FROM MCCOOK TO
GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE SHOULD HELP PROMOTE A BIT MORE EFFICIENCY IN
RAINFALL PRODUCTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING DRIER
AIR AND DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST 1/3-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 06Z EXITING THE ENTIRE AREA BY
12Z FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY. IF ONE WERE TO USE 850MB
TEMPERATURES (WHICH DID VERY WELL WITH HILL CITY 104 DEGREE HIGH)
WE WOULD SEE A RANGE OF LOW 90S WEST TO 102 AT HILL CITY.
MET/MAV/2M AND ABOUT TWO DOZEN BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS SUGGEST UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. HAVE GONE WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO (UNDER THE THICKER CLOUDS) WITH MID 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (WHERE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER). LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...60-65 EAST OF THE BORDER.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING FROM TRENTON AND MCCOOK TO HILL CITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING
UPPER PATTERN SHOWING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
WITH A STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH STABLE AIR ACROSS
THE AREA FAVORING NIL POPS. FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS GENERALLY CLEAR
WITH CONTINUED NIL POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND USHER IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A THETA E BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST POPS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICES
ARE VERY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT AGREE AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND FAVOR RIDGING IN THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIST PRIMARILY IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH 06Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH...POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER...AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE WEST BY 18Z THEN
SLOWLY NORTHWEST AROUND 10-12KTS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR TONIGHT WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND OR JUST
UNDER 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99



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