Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 131851

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1151 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 315 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

Cold front will move through the area this morning, with a period
of gusty north winds behind it. Relative humidity values may drop
into the upper teens this afternoon, but winds will be
diminishing by that time as the cold front continues south. So,
expecting elevated but not critical fire weather conditions.
Tonight, there will be a chance of light snow developing after
midnight associated with a shortwave trough moving down the
Rockies. The light snow may spread into northwest Kansas early
Thursday morning. However, little if any accumulation is expected.
Another shortwave trough moving out of the northern plains
Thursday afternoon will bring a chance of light rain/light snow
mainly to eastern parts of the area. Temperatures will warm into
the lower 40s, so no accumulation is expected, but wet bulb zero
heights still low enough to mention snow. Precipitation chances
will be ending by 00z with these fast moving features. As skies
clear and winds diminish Thursday night, temperatures will fall
into the teens by Friday morning. Upper ridge will rebuild on
Friday with temperatures rebounding into the middle to upper 50s.
Downsloping westerly surface winds will help with the warming, but
also should tank dew points. As a result, elevated to locally
critical fire weather conditions may develop.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

At the start of the extended period the models are showing an upper
level trough moving across the region with an associated surface
front. This front will produce a chance of precipitation Saturday
night into the early hours of Sunday morning. The precipitation is
expected to start out as rain showers, then becoming a wintry mix
before turning into snow showers.

By Sunday morning, dry conditions returns, with closer to normal
temperatures, to the local area as the front continues to move east
out of the region. Expect the afternoon high temperatures to reach
the lower 40s.

For the first part of next week expect dry conditions with the
temperatures warming back into the above normal range. Afternoon
high temperature will be in the middle to upper 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the majority, if not
all, of the 18Z TAF period. Mid-level ceilings will gradually
thicken and lower this evening/tonight, in advance of a shortwave
approaching from the NW. Overcast ceilings with bases 4-6 KFT agl
are expected at both terminals by the end of the TAF period,
though the GLD terminal should see the aforementioned ceilings
arrive several hours prior to MCK, by ~09Z Thu.

Breezy NW winds sustained at 20-30 knots with gusts up to 35-38
knots are expected through ~22Z this afternoon, with winds
gradually shifting from the NW to NNW. Thereafter, winds are
expected to decrease to ~15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots,
further decreasing to ~10 knots with the onset of the nocturnal

Winds will abruptly increase at GLD near the end of the TAF
period (~15Z), becoming sustained at 25-30 knots with gusts up 40
knots. Though winds will also increase several hours after sunrise
(15-18Z time frame) at the MCK terminal, winds will initially be
lighter, in the 15-20 knot range w/gusts to 30 knots, and are not
expected to strengthen to ~25G35 knots until after 18Z.




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