Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 191942
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
142 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE MONDAY. WINDS TURN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST OVER HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP THE AREA WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN
40-45 AND HIGHS BETWEEN 70-75. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE
TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS A
SOLID BET. IN FACT...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITHIN 850 MB
TEMPS...STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND 00Z MEX/ECE GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO
RAISE HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HIGHS COULD EASILY BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

WITH REGARDS TO THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING. THE LATEST TREND WAS FOR A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...MEANING A QUICKER END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. SOME GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS RUNS HIGHLIGHTED THE
POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY. THIS NO LONGER LOOKS TO
BE THE CASE AS A COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD
FORCE ALL PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA. IT
IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS DROPPING BELOW 5 MB AND A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MEAGER BUT COULDNT RULE OUT A
STORM OR TWO.

ONE OF THE FEW DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN FORECAST GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED IS OVERALL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS INDICATES WARMER TEMPERATURES...
STRONGER 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE 200-300 J/KG HIGHER THAN
THE EUROPEAN AND UP 600-900 J/KG HIGHER THAN THE CANADIAN. ALL
MODELS INDICATE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO THINK THE GFS IS
TOO AMBITIOUS WITH TEMPS/INSTABILITY. KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION
IN THE FORECAST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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