Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1032 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Issued at 911 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Forecast updated due to Wind Chill Advisory being allowed to
expire. Also made minor adjustments to hourly grids this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 512 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Updating forecast to include an expansion to the current Wind
Chill Advisory in effect for northwest portions of our CWA.
Temperatures inside the advisory will range from 15 to 20 below


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 220 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

This morning, wind chill temperatures will range in the 5 to 15
below zero range across the Tri-State area. Temperatures will be
inhibited by cloud cover, snow cover, and CAA continuing to push
over our area. Expecting the max temps to only get into the low
to mid 20s.

Wednesday morning will be similar with wind chills again in the
negative single digits. Later on, max temps will only climb
slightly into the mid and upper 20s.

Thursday through Thursday night, we will see the air mass
beginning to lift east out of our area as a system begins to push
in. Mixed wintry precipitation is expected. At this time
expecting a snow transitioning to freezing drizzle or light rain.
This could change in the next 24 hours, depending on the extent
the surface trough develops. Regardless, it will continue through
Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Going into Friday...weak surface ridging is set up over the region
during the daytime hours...w/ an inverted surface trough developing
over SE CO. This trough does develop out ahead of a larger
shortwave...and will shift east off the central Rockies Friday night
into Saturday across the CWA. Some model timing differences but the
shortwave pushes east of the CWA during the afternoon hrs Saturday
allowing for dry conditions for the remainder of the weekend into
the beginning of next week. Another weaker shortwave does move over
the region Monday morning.

For the Friday night/Saturday morning timeframe...track of the
surface trough/low just south of the CWA with the upper support
transitioning over the CWA...will give the region a round of
precipitation...with light snow as main p-type based on latest temp
profiles. Best enhancement will be focused along and north of
Interstate 70. Looking for potential 1-2" of snowfall here with an
inch or less south of the Interstate. As temps increase during
morning Saturday...any leftover moisture will transition to light
rain before ending.

Temps in the extended will see and increasing trend during this time
w/ highs starting off Friday in the upper 30s to low 40s...then
increasing to around 50F by next Tuesday. Overnight lows will range
from the upper teens thru the mid 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1029 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. The winds will
start out at near 13 knots. From 22z-23z the winds will be north
to northeast at near 7 knots. From 00z to 02z the winds will
become light and variable. The winds will remain light and
variable until between 14z to 17z when they shift to the southeast
at near 6 knots.




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