Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 202341
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKY
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME
THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN PAST COUPLE HOURS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES. THIS HAS PUT THE TRI STATE
REGION MAINLY IN THE MID 40S...WITH SOME NEAR 50F ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES FROM LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...COMBINED WITH SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
THE LOWER PORTION OF THE PLAINS...IS GOING TO KEEP LOW CLOUD DECK
OVER THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
SSE BY THURSDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER LEVELS DRY AS H5 RIDGE NOSES IN
OVER ROCKIES...GIVING WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST WITH MODELS BRINGING
H5/H7 CUTOFF LOW INTO THE ROCKIES. SSE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO FUNNEL UP NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE MODELS HAVE WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOP.
SOME -RW DOES DEVELOP EARLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MEANDERS
SLOWLY EASTWARD THRU THE DAY...SLICING INTO PORTION OF THE WESTERN
CWA. RIDGE FAIRLY STAGNANT BUT DOES HINT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO FEED INTO CWA...WITH TROUGH SLIDING EAST SOME IN TANDEM. THIS
COULD TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT -RW WITH FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO
ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS IN NW KANSAS COULD SEE A SPOT SHOWER. HAVE KEPT
POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT CENTRAL
EASTERN HALF MAINLY DRY. PLACEMENT OF RIDGE TOMORROW WILL AFFECT
HIGHS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WARMEST WILL BE EAST WHERE BEST CHANCES
FOR LESS AREAL CLOUD COVERAGE...COOLER WEST...BUT LOOKING FOR LOW TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US IS
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING RAIN AND
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT AND
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS TO TIMING AND AMOUNTS. CURRENT
FORECAST IS THEREFORE MORE SPECIFIC IN TERMS OF PRECIP START
TIMES THURSDAY EVENING ALONG WITH HIGHER POP CONFIDENCE.

THE NEXT IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE NOT NEARLY AS
CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL. FORECAST IS MORE
OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH IN TERMS OF POPS AND QPF. RIGHT NOW
THINKING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED ON
SATURDAY. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS WEAKER IMPULSES LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING SHORT WAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE 70S FOR SATURDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STATUS
TO CONTINUE...MAINLY AT GOODLAND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE BULK
OF GUIDANCE HAS CIGS AOB 3500 FEET FOR TONIGHT...CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RAP SUPPORT MORE OF A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH 08Z. CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL LIMIT ANY
FOG THREAT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD BELOW MVFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRM


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