Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 191116
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
416 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 322 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

Main forecast issue will be fire weather concerns on Monday with
secondary concerns of temperatures through the period. High
temperatures and mixing could be greatly affected by cirrus,
especially on Monday. Satellite showing an amplified flow from the
Pacific into the eastern North America. A broad ridge has built into
the western portion of North America which has brought northwest
flow aloft to the region.

Models started out very well at mid and upper levels. The Nam looked
to be starting well on the surface wind and pressure field. The
Ukmet, Sref, and Canadian models started out the best on the low
level thermal field.

Today/tonight...Right rear quadrant of jet starts over the area at
the beginning of the day and then moves to the east. Models develop
downslope winds, especially in the western portion. However a
concern for temperatures will be how much cirrus will be around.

Comparing the high level rh progs to satellite would indicate that
the more aggressive model output is going to be wrong. Also models
have had tendencies in the past of bringing too much cirrus in
northwest flow aloft. Based on that and latest 2 meter/850 mb
forecasts and biases, am going to keep the warmer high temperatures.
Warm air advection and downslope winds increase during the night. So
low temperatures could be rather mild.

Monday/Monday night...For the fire weather issues please refer to
the discussion below. The left front quadrant of a 140 to 160 knot
jet begins affecting the western portion of the area during the
afternoon. That jet continues to affect most of the area through the
night. That plus high level rh progs would indicate that cirrus
could thicken/increase during the afternoon.

Downslope winds are stronger this day than today. Based on the
forecast soundings and plan view lapse rates, am really concerned
that the models may be underdoing the mixing. Although if we get
thick cirrus in here, that could hinder warmer. After considering
all factors, decided to increase winds and high temperatures.

Models still showing a slug of mid level moisture moving in and
remaining over the area during the night. Some model output is
spitting out some very light precipitation amounts during the night.
Warm air advection and downslope winds remain rather strong during
the night in advance of an approaching cold front. However models
showing a rather deep dry layer so think even what little
precipitation is being shown is being overdone. Combination of winds
and thickening cloud cover will make for above normal low
temperatures.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Depending on which model, the cold front
mentioned above looks to move through very late Monday night or
early Tuesday. Due to where the jet is located and rh progs
continuing a decent amount of mid and high level moisture over the
area combined with the frontal passage will make for a much cooler
day and kept what the blend gave me.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 152 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

Dry conditions are expected through out the entire extended period
as an upper level ridge over the Rockies dominates the region. Highs
for the rest of the work week (Wed-Fri) will reach into the middle
to upper 60s, with some local area reaching around 70 by Friday.

Friday night, the upper level ridge will flatten enough to allow
troughing to move down through the Tri-State region. This troughing
will have an associated front with it. This front looks to be dry;
however, temperatures will be impacted over the weekend. Expect
afternoon high temperatures to reach only into the lower to middle
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 414 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. West to southwest
winds of 6 to 9 knots will shift to the south during the late
afternoon. Those winds will shift back to the southwest during the
evening then to the west after midnight while remaining near 6
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

For Monday...some uncertainty in regards on how much mixing there
will be. The amount of mixing could be affected by how fast and
thick the cirrus moves in/becomes. At this time am siding toward
more mixing/warmer temperatures/lower relative humidities. The
lowest humidities and strongest winds look to set up over the
northwest corner of my area. So will be putting a fire weather watch
out for Yuma, Dundy, and Cheyenne county in Kansas from late
morning through the afternoon.

However, there is potential if less cloud cover occurs that better
mixing and higher winds could cover a much larger portion of the
area. This will have to be monitored closely.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for KSZ001.

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for COZ252.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER



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