Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

424
FXUS63 KGLD 221739
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1139 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today THROUGH TUESDAY night)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COME THROUGH THE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
INITIATE STORMS ON THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE PLACING THE DRYLINE NEAR
KS HIGHWAY 25. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR RANGES FROM
30 TO 40KTS SO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LATER THIS EVENING MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE FA.
SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL HELP FIRE
SOME STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

STRATUS, FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN
DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z.  DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COOLER
READINGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES
FROM 75 TO AROUND 80.  HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
75 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO 85 IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 50 TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Precipitation chances continue throughout the extended period, with
the best chance of precipitation looking to be Thursday night into
Friday. Temperatures appear to gradually decrease through the end of
the work week before rebounding during the weekend.

On Wednesday, southwesterly flow aloft persists as an upper trough
moves towards the Four Corners region. Disturbances pass through the
flow as the trough nears the High Plains. An upper low forms and, on
Thursday and Friday, advances from Colorado across the area.
This will be the best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms
across the High Plains with a frontal boundary draped across western
Kansas as the focus for development. With increasing CAPE and decent
shear during this time, severe weather will be a possibility on
Thursday. Precipitation chances decrease Friday night and Saturday
as the upper system moves east towards the Upper Midwest and weak
ridging follows behind. Due to the active pattern, could not rule
out precipitation for any period. Additionally, there is uncertainty
in the timing of the upper system as well as positioning of surface
features.

Generally above normal temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s are
expected on Wednesday before highs decrease into the mid 60s to
upper 70s by Friday. Temperatures could warm into the 70s across the
region on Saturday if upper ridging returns to the High Plains. Low
temperatures will be in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. The breezy winds
will continue well into the night. Meanwhile isolated to scattered
storms are expected near the TAF sites during the late afternoon
and early evening. Late evening into the overnight hours low
level wind shear will develop ahead of a cold front that will move
through during the last few hours of the night. Behind the cold
front winds will turn to the northwest and become light.

Ahead of the frontal passage elevated thunderstorms will develop,
possibly near KMCK. If they do, it should only be for a couple
hours before storms are pushed east by the front.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.