Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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663
FXUS63 KGLD 070147
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
647 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

Current airmass over the CWA still remains very dry ahead of the
approaching system from the Central Rockies. Latest obs continue
to show large T/Td spread which still has to be overcome.
Regional radar is showing echoes over portions of the CWA...with
nothing hitting the ground. With this...will shift back timing of
snow hitting the ground in the CWA back an hour or two. No other
changes at this time...but may adjust timing further in later
update if this trend continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

Shortwave trough currently over the northern Rockies will move
southeast tonight and Wednesday as an open wave bringing light to
moderate snow across the local area. Snow will develop in
northeast Colorado this evening then spread into northwest Kansas
and southwest Nebraska later tonight, mainly in areas north of
Interstate 70. Snow chances will be lower south of the Interstate
tonight, but some light snow will develop there tomorrow morning.
Snow will wind down tomorrow afternoon for all areas. For snow
totals, used a blend of the 12z GFS and 15z SREF. They were very
similar on amounts but varied slightly only location. GFS had an
axis of 2 to 4 inches across southern Washington and Yuma counties
and into Cheyenne County, Kansas, while the SREF had the axis
slightly further north and east, from northern Yuma County
southeast into the Kansas/Nebraska border area. Confidence was
still not quite there for advisory criteria amounts (3 to 5
inches), but would not be surprised to see a few localized 4 or 5
inch reports in the Yuma CO, Cheyenne KS and Dundy County NE area.
Winds will increase overnight to around 15kts with gusts up to
25kts, resulting in some patchy blowing snow but again not enough
to warrant an advisory. Temperatures will go nowhere on Wednesday,
with highs in the mid teens to lower 20s and wind chills in the
single digits below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1213 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

During the extended period the big focus will be the very cold
temperatures that will impact the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Due to the arctic air still impacting the region,
temperatures are expected to drop close to zero, if not just below.
Winds/wind gusts are forecasted to be 5 to 15 mph for a few hours
but otherwise below 10 mph. Despite this, wind chill temperatures
could reach 10 to 20 below zero during the overnight hours into the
early morning hours on Thursday. This could potentially be worthy of
a wind chill advisory.

The remainder of the period will be primarily dry. There is a small
potential for precipitation Saturday, but models are differing at the
moment so decided to remove any chances. For the most part the upper
level flow will be marginal with the trough moving east of the
region Thursday into Friday. Zonal flow will begin to move over the
region during the day on Friday with the development of a shortwave
trough in the Pacific Northwest. That trough is showing to move over
the region Saturday (hence the possible PoP chances). Sunday and
Monday will continue to be dry, with Tuesday showing slight chances
for rain/snow across the far northern portions of the region.

Temperatures will be in the low 20s Thursday but will begin to
increase Friday into the 30s and 40s. Saturday will be in the 40s
and low 50s. Sunday will see a decrease into the 30s with the passage
of a cold front. Monday and Tuesday will increase back up into the
40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 444 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

For KGLD...ceilings will be a VFR/MVFR mix ranging from mainly
BKN-OVC012-035 dropping lower as snow develops. Visibility will
range mainly from 3-5sm in -sn after 04z...dropping down to 1
1/2-2sm at times in heavier snowfall. Winds SE around 10kts thru
07z...then NNE 10-20kts.

For KMCK...VFR ceilings thru 12z Wednesday...then MVFR w/ BKN-
OVC015-025 as snow develops. Visibility will mainly 4-5sm in
light snow...dropping down to 1 1/2sm at times aft 12z Wed. Winds
NW around 10kts thru 03z then becoming NNE 10-20kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JN



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