Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 042034
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND MINIMAL CLOUDS EXPECTED...THE MAIN
FOCUS IS ON WARMING TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES WILL WILL REMAIN COLD OVERNIGHT AND START OUT COLD
FIRST THING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH VALUES AS LOW AS -10 TO -13 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF COLORADO.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. SURFACE WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT BRINGS A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. AS THIS HAPPENS...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IS FORCED EAST IN
ADDITION TO A WEAKENING TREND WITHIN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TROUGH. UNDER THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...WARMER WEATHER IS BASICALLY
ASSURED. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WARM WILL WE GET AND HOW QUICKLY?
A FEW MEMBERS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE ARE BEING ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY
SNOW COVER OVER EAST COLORADO. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY MELT TODAY AND
TOMORROW AND FEEL THAT GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL OVER EAST COLORADO
INITIALLY. HAVE MADE A WARM ADJUSTMENT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WEATHER PARAMETERS LOOK QUITE BLEAK
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BUT SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE PERSISTING WITH NO SIGNS OF ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. THE EUROPEAN
DOES INDICATE AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BUT DELAYED A FEW
DAYS COMPARED TO THE GFS. A GLANCE AT THE GEFS ENSEMBLES MUDDLES
THINKING EVEN MORE AS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FORECAST
SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK IS LOW BUT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE SHOULD COME BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TURNING SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH AND A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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