Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160534

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1034 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

Issued at 737 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

Despite decent returns shown on the radar, observations have not
been showing snow making it to the ground. Upstream 00z soundings
do show a very moist air mass. Forcing is strong but lower levels
are becoming more stable as well. Latest Hrrr and Rap keep the
main precipitation in eastern Colorado and current analysis
supports that. So will keep the highest pops and what little snow
there is out in eastern Colorado. Otherwise just made minor
adjustments in the remaining hourly grids.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 218 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...skies are a partly to
mostly sunny mix with temps mostly in the 50s w/ some 40s north as
frontal boundary starts to push south into the region. Winds are
northerly and gusting to 20-30 mph.

Going into tonight...with front continuing push thru the
expect northerly winds to persist at least thru 06z-07z before
tapering off as high pressure builds south into the Plains region.
With an upper level shortwave moving across the region tonight and
upslope effects ahead of the ridge...some light precipitation is
expected. Little to no QPF with this...but enough to transition
light rain over to a light snow as temps fall this evening.
Continued with model/forecast trend with bulk of snow(less than
0.5") over NE CO and bordering locales. With winds gusting to the 30-
40 mph range...some patchy blowing snow is possible. Overnight lows
in the mid and upper teens.

For Friday...precip will end by sunrise putting area in colder
airmass even with a shift to SSW flow thru the day. Will be looking
for just below normal highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s under sunny

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

Friday night-Sunday: Shortwave ridging transitions over our CWA
Friday night, with west then southwest flow developing Saturday
through Sunday. Pattern will remain dry with a warming trend through
the weekend. A quasi-stationary front lingering through Saturday
morning eventually lifting north as a warm front as lee trough
deepens Saturday afternoon. Strongest WAA Sunday may be associated
with strong southwest flow ahead of an approaching arctic front.

Surface pattern and mixed layer winds are uncertain Sunday which
will determine potential for RFW conditions to be met. Due to the
mild temperatures and dry air mass in place RH will likely reach 15
percent at least for a period in the afternoon Sunday.

Sunday night-Thursday: Longwave trough develops across the western US,
with an arctic front moving over our CWA Sunday night and Monday.
Several shortwave troughs break off the main upper low and
transition across the Rockies and Plains, and could result in
increasing snow chances (deepening on evolution/track). Models are
coming into better agreement for snowfall Monday night through
Tuesday morning, however still vary on amounts. ECMWF shows a
stronger lobe of vorticity and more of a closed H7 center which
would represent better potential for stronger forcing in our NW CWA.
GFS is weaker and shows less amounts accordingly. For now consensus
is for sub advisory amounts (generally around 1"), but this could
change if we see good banding and a slower transition eastward.
Shortwave ridging is currently shown to move over our CWA by
Thursday and help bring dry conditions and a slow moderation in
temps (particularly Thu ahead of next trough).


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1029 PM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

For Kgld, mvfr conditions and north winds near 18 knots with gusts
to around 25 knots are expected for the first two hours. At 08z
vfr conditions will return for the entire period as north winds
decrease to 10 knots. The winds will become light and variable
around 11z and continue until 17z. At that time south winds will
be near 10 knots. At 20z the south winds will increase to near 17
knots with gusts to near 25 knots. Near sunset those winds will
lose the gusts and decrease to near 12 knots.

For Kmck, vfr conditions are expected through the period. North
winds near 18 knots with gusts to 25 knots are expected until 09z.
At 09z, the winds will be north at near 8 knots. From 12z to 18z
those winds will be light and variable. At 18z the winds will have
shifted to the south and will be near 10 knots for the rest of the
period. Low level wind shear will develop from 03z to 04z.




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