Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 050834
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CLOUDY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE TROUGH WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE INHIBITED BY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM GENERALLY A
TRACE TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST JUST BEFORE MIDDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.
DUE TO WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER IN THE REGION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP
OUT WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHING THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ANTICIPATE QUIET WEATHER WITH
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
WARMING LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARM WEATHER PERSISTING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS WITH RECENT DAYS...DO NOT THINK
THIS IS COMPLETELY REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE 10+
INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN ON THE GROUND. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS...ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE CR
INITIALIZATION BY USING A 50% BLEND WITH BCCONSRAW AND A FEW OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. IN THE END...THIS LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES 3-4
DEGREES...SPECIFICALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
AND EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT OF THE
RIDGE BLOCKING THE FLOW...NO DISTURBANCES SHOULD PASS THROUGH. ONE
THING TO MONITOR IS WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A STRONG JET OF
WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING INTO THIS
JET...WHICH WOULD BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
INCREASED SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO AT LEAST MAKE AN
ADJUSTMENT TOWARDS POTENTIAL HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
08Z WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND 6KTS. FROM 09Z-15Z
MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VIS DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE TERMINALS
WITH WINDS FROM THE WEST AROUND 6KTS. FROM AROUND 16Z OR 17Z
THROUGH 23Z CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTING AROUND 25KTS. AFTER 00Z
WINDS DECREASE TO 10KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ONLY A FEW MID
AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99


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