Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 211933
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
133 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THE
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KDNR AND KDDC
INDICATED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE MIXING LAYER ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITH SOME DEGREE OF A DRY PROFILE...HOWEVER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE IN THE TOMORROW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG EASTERN COLORADO AND PROVIDE A PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS IN THE MID MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND NOT CURRENTLY THINKING SUSTAINED WINDS WILL MEET 3
HOUR THRESHOLD.  HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY
ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD FOR FIRE WEATHER...SO NOT EXPECTING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME DESPITE THE GUSTY
WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HIGHER VORTICITY VALUES BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.75 IN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD BE PERSISTENT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS STRONGER MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET LOOK TO REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY (HIGHEST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE) ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS MID 30S TO 40 WEST...LOW
40S EAST.

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN MID 60S TO LOW 70S GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES. GFS/ECWMF HAVE A BIT MORE AGREEMENT IN THE SPEED
OF THIS DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BUT STILL LACK AGREEMENT
IN THE INTENSITY...WHETHER ITS AN OPEN TROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF OR
CLOSED LIKE THE GFS. WE SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CATEGORY. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES. HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THUNDER CHANCES
AS A RESULT. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH UPPER JET SUPPORT AS UPPER
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. HAVE AGAIN LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF IS TO HAVE SOME TYPE
OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE AREA AS THE SATURDAYS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS AND COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S PRODUCE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A GENERAL
LACK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT A MODEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

STABLE AIR ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. MINOR
WIND SHIFTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE MID MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MK






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.