Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 212327
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/EXTENT. STILL LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...THOUGH
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE. THERE
SHOULD BE A TENDENCY TOWARD PULSE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE MINIMAL
SHEER.  I ADDED SEVERE WORDING BASED ON ONGOING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH CAPE VALUES (4000-5000
J/KG)...AND FAVORABLE DOWNDRAFT PROFILES. SEVERE THREAT MIRRORS
ACTUAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS ANY STORMS THAT ACTUALLY DEVELOP
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...THE QUESTION IS
JUST WHERE AND HOW WIDESPREAD. CURRENT TREND IS FOR ACTIVITY TO BE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH WHERE CIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING
ENOUGH FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF THE CO/KS BORDER AND AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY
INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS BUT CANT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL AS WELL. WITH STORM MOTIONS
GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER 10 MPH AND BEING PARALLEL TO UPPER
FLOW SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE FAR
EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA.

TUESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH BRINGING NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO PERHAPS 25 MPH FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE. EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA COULD GET MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DESPITE
THE FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS TEMPERATURES NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER WITH
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103 ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF.

MODEL DEWPOINT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN RATHER UNRELIABLE LATELY AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE TUESDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR A
POSSIBLY NEEDED HEAT ADVISORY. RIGHT NOW HAVE ADVISORY CRITERIA
BEING MET ACROSS NORTON...GRAHAM...PARTS OF GOVE AND SHERIDAN. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON A HIGHLITE
FOR NOW BUT WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOGLD PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.  A FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED IN NORTHWEST KANSAS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE SOUTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY.

PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING
NEAR THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA.  CAPE
WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 2600J/KG AND SHEAR WILL BE FROM 20 TO 25KTS.
OTHERWISE POPS WILL BE NIL OVER THE FA AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
COLORADO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  POPS WILL BE NIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FA. A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  A SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE FORCING AND
THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
90S.  WARMING 850 TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPERATURE TO
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 90S THURSDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EASTERN FA.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER
60S IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 70 IN THE EASTERN FA.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S WITH SOME UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOW EAST OF
THE KGLD TERMINAL AND ALL INDICATIONS FROM UPSTREAM TRENDS AND
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS THAT ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL
AVOID THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AT EITHER TERMINAL...HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT I WAS ONLY CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP VCTS MENTION DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KMCK. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10KT
OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS...WITH THE DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTH TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT BEFORE BACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST AS A FRONT APPROACHES MIDDAY TUESDAY. WHILE THERE
MIGHT BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KGLD AND OUTSIDE THE AREA OF CONCERN FOR
KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-
     029.

CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR





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