Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 220820
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
220 AM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Expired Red Flag Warning for all counties in our CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...sunny skies for all
with hot and dry conditions with temperatures currently well into
the 90s for all locales. Winds are ranging from the SW to the SE
across the area with most spots seeing 10-20 mph w/ gusts around 30-
35 mph.

For the rest of the afternoon hrs into this evening...dry and clear
conditions will persist with winds abating some towards sunset.
Despite clear skies and southerly winds overnight do expect warmer
temps for the lows. Looking for 50s west...and 60s along and east of
Highway 25.

Going into Friday...main wx issue for the day will be the potential
for some severe wx to develop late in the day. Gradient tightens
again thru the day as a frontal boundary approaches the region with
gusts 20-30 mph possible. It does look that models want to focus any
potential precipitation Friday along and just east of the front that
sets up over the area. Instability enough to warrant strong to
severe conditions crop up after 18z. With the uncertainty as to
where the boundary exactly sets up...have expanded the narrow area
of pops outward to get a slightly broader coverage...but the main
focus will occur in central zones. SPC does have the area under
Marginal Risk. Before the arrival of increased clouds along with
precip late...the area will see highs top off from the upper 80s
along and west of the front...to the lower and mid 90s east of the
boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 218 AM MDT Fri
Sep 22 2017

Monday-Tuesday: Cold front finally progresses off to the east and
out of the area, as the upper low moves off to the north. Will
still have chances of rain during the day and early evening on
Monday with the best chances along and east of Hwy 83. Some of
those areas could see an additional 0.25 in. of rain. Tuesday
should remain dry with just slight chances of rain for southern
portions of the CWA. Temperatures will be below normal.

Wednesday-Thursday: Another upper low/longwave trough forms over the
Four Corners region. Similar setup to the previous system with the
main exception being that the ridge over the eastern US is not as
amplified, which will allow for a more progressive setup. There will
be chances of rain Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Not
expecting any severe weather at this time from this system.
Temperatures will remain below normal for the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of
the TAF period. Sub VFR conditions could occur Friday afternoon
as isolated showers and thunderstorms develop over our area. Main
concern still in play is strong LLWS at both the GLD and MCK
terminals. Bot sites could see gusts up to 50 knots overnight and
tomorrow.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EV
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...EV



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