Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 180825
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
225 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 222 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016
Main forecast issue chance of precipitation Wednesday and into early
Wednesday evening followed by how cool/cold to make the temperatures.
Satellite continuing to show a progressive/fast moving westerly
flow from the Pacific into the Conus.
Today/tonight...Much cooler air mass in place across the area.
Continued cold air advection and little mixing will not allow the
temperatures to climb much. The forecast blend and deterministic
output has been consistent on temperatures this day, and see no
reason to deviate.
Right rear quadrant affects the area, mainly the north half, during
the night. However there is little to no moisture available and
lapse rates are not good. So will keep it dry at this time. Cloud
cover and increasing winds in advance of the next cold front should
not allow temperatures too drop much.
Wednesday/Wednesday night...Above mentioned jet affects the area
through the morning. This is further north and a little stronger
than shown last night. Also the shortwave looks stronger than
before. There a rather strong baroclinic zone that accompanies this
feature and the theta-e lapse rates are favorable.
For the daytime, the forecast blend gives me 30 to 40 percent chance
along the Kansas and Nebraska border and decreases that to a slight
chance a little further south and east. Based on above this looks
reasonable. Based on the forecast sounding profile and low level
temperatures expected, expect this to be all rain. The lift and
linger light rain ends by late evening.
A reinforcing shot of cold air/strong front moves through the area
in the morning. This combined with the increasing winds and cloud
cover will make for a rather chilly day. Adjusted the maxes down
slightly and blended in with the neighbors. Low temperatures will be
colder due to less wind and should see frost develop from late in
the night into early Thursday.
Thursday/Thursday night...Complicated jet setup. Initial jet segment
mentioned above moves through and then a secondary jet max/left
front quadrant moves in and begins to affect the western half of the
area in the morning. It then starts moving east of the area late
in the afternoon into the evening. Considering the moisture
profile at most this should only produce clouds. Cloud cover
combined with little mixing should make for another cool day.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016
Quiet and dry weather prevails throughout the extended period. On
Friday, northwest flow aloft continues over the region with an upper
trough to the east and broad ridge to the west. Meanwhile at the
surface, high pressure pushes south towards Mexico. The ridge
strengthens and builds into the Plains over the weekend, with its
axis over the High Plains by Monday. PoPs are basically zero
throughout the entire period for the region.
Temperatures warm at the start of the extended, with highs in the
mid 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Will then see a slight decrease into
the low to mid 70s in time for Monday when a front approaches the
area. Lows will generally be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Gusty north to northwest winds will continue through 07Z/08Z
before lowering to 10kts after 08z. Winds become variable under
5kts from around 16z til 19z at KGLD (remain calm at KMCK for rest
of the period) when they back to the southeast and slowly increase
toward 8kts or so.