Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250600

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1200 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge building onto the Plains.
Water vapor imagery showed dry air accompanying the ridge.  At the
surface a trough was moving in from the west.  Behind the trough
south winds were turning to the west.

This evening the surface trough will washout along the western
border.  Meanwhile the light south winds will become breezy as the
surface pressure gradient tightens.  With dew points in the 40s and
a warmer air mass overhead, lows will be around 50.

Thursday cloud cover will increase from the west ahead of an
approaching upper level short wave trough.  A weak cold front will
move in and stall along Highway 40.  To the west a dry line will
develop over the southwest portion of the forecast area during the
afternoon. Meanwhile storms will move in from the west, with some
isolated activity developing along the dry line, as the upper level
short wave trough continues toward the forecast area. Lift is quite
strong and deep with this trough. However the environment still
looks stable except for a narrow corridor just ahead of the short
wave trough.  Under the short wave trough there is almost no CAPE
but the environment will become saturated.  There is 30-40kt of deep
layer shear and up to 2000j/kg of mixed layer CAPE, but the CINH is
very high.  At this time the severe threat does not look to be that
impressive, but the potential is there for a brief window large hail
up to half dollar size and damaging wind gusts.  This looks to be a
more favorable setup for general thunderstorms with light to
moderate rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 108 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

A trough is set to slowly move across the region beginning Thursday
night. A few ongoing thunderstorms could become strong to severe as
we head through the evening and into the early overnight hours.
Instability and CAPE will be relatively high; however, initiation
could be an issue as CIN will also be a bit high. If an updraft is
able to overcome the cap, will will see thunderstorms capable of
producing hail and gusty winds. A more favorable severe setup will
take shape on Friday as CAPE climbs to near 2000 J/Kg during the
midday to middle afternoon hours. Bulk shear will be in the 40 to 50
knot range with 0-1km shear approaching 20 knots, especially late in
the afternoon. The main risk will be supercells that will produce
large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
out, especially in the western half of the CWA. Good instability and
a favorable shear profile will allow the potential for elevated
severe thunderstorms to develop during the Friday overnight hours
and into the early morning on Saturday with large hail being the
primary threat.

The more favorable CAPE and theta-e axis will remain south of the
CWA as we head into Saturday. There will remain Chc PoPs in the
region with showers and embedded thunderstorms possible through the
late evening before the shortwave trough moves out of the area. An
isolated strong storm is possible on Saturday; however, severe
thunderstorms are not favored at this time due to only low levels of
instability. PoPs diminish Saturday evening, allowing the CWA to dry
out as we head into Sunday. A chance of scattered, mainly afternoon
thunderstorms are in the forecast Monday through Wednesday with the
next potential for severe thunderstorms potentially manifesting on
Wednesday afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR conditions will persist with mostly clear skies through the
remainder of the night and Thursday morning. LLWS will continue
through about sunrise with stronger south winds near the top of
the inversion layer in advance of the surface trough that moves
through the central high plains region on Thursday. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain to the west
and move east across the plains during the afternoon and early
evening. GLD and MCK TAF sites could see thunderstorms between
about 22Z through 03Z. with clearing skies after 03Z.




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