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000
FXUS63 KGLD 050651
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1151 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

ARCTIC COLD HAS ENTERED THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR
A WHILE. SOME LIGHT SNOW FELL THIS MORNING...WITH HEAVIEST BANDS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING NEARLY AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS.
TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD BRING A
QUICK INCH IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT OTHERWISE THE COLD WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE LEAD TO SNOWFALL ENDING AND
EVEN SOME CLEARING SKIES...AND HIGHS WERE A CHALLENGE OF BALANCING
THE ADDITIONAL SOLAR RADIATION WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ARE A
BIT STRONGER THAN THE ORIGINAL FORECAST...BUT A BLEND OF 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE HANDLED THE STRONGER WINDS A LITTLE BETTER THAN MOST OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO AND PARTS OF NW KANSAS/SW
NEBRASKA WILL REACH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO...APPROACHING RECORD
COLD VALUES. A QUICK CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL DUE TO A NARROW BAND
ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS AS SUGGESTED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. A FEW
SPOTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70 COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH...BUT ANY
SNOWFALL THAT DOES FALL WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT. SNOWFALL AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ONCE THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY AS COLD
AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD...850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -20 C...VERY COLD
EVEN BY WINTER STANDARDS. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
ZERO...APPROACHING RECORD VALUES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AM VERY CONFIDENT ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WIND CHILLS DROP TO -15 TO -25...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO. IF SKIES CLEAR AS RAPID AS THE RUC IS INDICATING...EVEN
COLDER TEMPS/WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...COLD. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS...EVEN WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS WILL BE
NEAR ZERO MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT WILL FINALLY RELENT TOWARDS THE VERY END
OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN ADVISORY RANGE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOSE IN SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE
FRESH SNOW PACK COMBINED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING COULD TANK TO
NEAR 10 BELOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AND
THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
WITH METARS SHOWING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND KMCK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS AT BOTH
SITES SHOW AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>003-013-014-027.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS