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000
FXUS63 KGLD 072119
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR A RELATIVELY MINOR RAIN-TO-SNOW EVENT. ON
THE BROAD SCALE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...WITH
THE REAL COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND DECENT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT A LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW EVENT IS
IN STORE. DESPITE SNOW TONIGHT TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK UP TO NEAR 50
AGAIN TOMORROW.

TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SKY COVER HAS
BEEN A CHALLENGE TODAY AS CLOUDS CLEARED OUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN OVERCAST MORNING...BUT STILL
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MOVES INTO
THE REGION. ACCORDINGLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP BEYOND MOST GUIDANCE
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HEATING...BUT THIS WILL
TURN AROUND SOON AS THE COLD AIR IS KNOCKING OUR DOORSTEPS WITH KLBF
REPORTING SNOW AS OF 18Z. DUE TO THE WARMTH AND DEEPER MIXING WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THIS HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST WINDS BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. PRECIPITATION IS A
CHALLENGE WITH...THE LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW NOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL MOVE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE RAIN TO
SNOW IN EASTERN COLORADO MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE LATER POTION OF
THE SYSTEM...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO AND ADJACENT KANSAS
COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN FOR EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST KANSAS...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW.

TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED IN EASTERN COLORADO AND PARTS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...EVENING WILL BEING WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 WHERE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE PREDICTED...AND
SNOWFALL COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL QPF
/LIQUID/ AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ONE TO TWO INCHES IN EASTERN COLORADO
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...ELSEWHERE A
COATING TO AN INCH IS EXPECTED...WITH AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
PROBABLY NOT SEEING MORE THAN A HALF INCH. SNOW SHOULD NOT BE MUCH
OF AN ISSUE ON THE ROADS DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPS TODAY RESULTING IN
WARMER SURFACES...AND WITH AMOUNTS LIGHT AND TIMING POST-DINNER
TIME THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BE MINOR. AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS WILL COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 20S...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW 20 IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. SNOW ON THE GROUND
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 50 ON SATURDAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT.  FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES.  UPPER FLOW WILL
TURN NORTHERLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD RIDGE AND
SUBSIDENCE.  THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY
WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL COME TO
AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. SUBSIDENCE
AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S COOLING TO
THE MID 20S BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO THE UPPER 20S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. WARMER READINGS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD
AND MCK. A CHALLENGING FORECAST...ONE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UPDATED AS CONDITIONS CHANGE. SKIES HAVE BEEN A MIXED BAG...WITH
MUCH OF NORTHWEST KANSAS NOW CLEARING OUT DESPITE GUIDANCE
INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS. THAT SAID...IFR CLOUDS ARE ON THE WAY
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER SOON. WINDS HAVE
BEEN A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...AS WELL AS HAVING
A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THESE WINDS SHOULD KEEP UP THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
TIMING IS A CHALLENGE...BUT AM STILL THINKING START TIME WILL BE IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON BECOMING MOST INTENSE TONIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR CUT... WITH RAIN QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EARLY TOMORROW CONDITIONS WILL DRAMATICALLY
IMPROVE...BECOMING VFR AT BOTH SITES BY SUNRISE...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
EARLIER THAN THAT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JJM