Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 302027
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
227 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016
A couple of boundaries over the area. One over the far southwest
portion and another over the northern portion. A shortwave trough
is coming in from the northwest. Some thunderstorms to the west of
the area with a cumulus field over the far east.
Convective allowing models not totally excited about tonight.
There is a decent amount of cinh. However, the lift from the
shortwave increases later this afternoon into the early evening.
So have put a slight chance over most of the southern and eastern
areas with a low chance in the far east. Newer model runs do not
bring the front as far south. So EXTENT of fog is not as great
and further north so adjusted accordingly for later tonight into
early tomorrow morning.
Front is further north tomorrow afternoon as well and mainly
affects the far northwest portion. Also next shortwave trough
begins to affect the northwest corner as well. So have slight
chance in the far northwest. High temperatures will be warmer and
made slight adjustments up from the previous forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 118 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016
The extended period will have an active weather pattern. The source
of moisture everyday will be the Monsoonal moisture from the
southwestern states. Even though each day has the potential for
precipitation and storm chances, the process in which they will
occur will vary as the week progresses.
The beginning half of the period, Sunday night through Tuesday, will
have the CWA under a ridge. Sunday night in particular looks to have
a boundary set up that will help increase PoP potential, as well as
a mid-level shortwave that moves through. Monday and Tuesday are
similar, weak shortwaves will move through the region under the
ridge and help with precipitation chances. Right now storms are not
anticipated to be severe.
Wednesday and Thursday will be influenced by a low pressure that
moved into the Pacific Northwest on Monday and began to trek across
the USA, Canadian border through the week. Come mid week, that low
pressure will start moving just north of the CWA and push the ridge
east of the region. This will create a southwesterly flow into the
CWA, thus creating a better chance to tap into the Monsoonal
moisture and bring it into the area. Late Wednesday night has a
boundary that sets up over the CWA, and that in addition to a
shortwave will help bring precipitation chances to the region. Come
Thursday a cold front will push over the northern portions of the
CWA helping with forcing and creating better storm potential all
By the end of the week the low pressure will have moved over the
northeastern states and a ridge begins to push into the western
states. Friday is variable on what may happen though. Current
surface analysis has the cold front lingering over the region. If
this holds true it will continue to help with precipitation chances.
Yet, via current model runs, there is an embedded upper level trough
in the ridge to the west of the CWA. So this will also help with PoP
chances Friday, due to keeping a southwesterly flow into the region.
Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s Monday
through Wednesday before dropping into the low 80s to low 90s by the
end of the week in the wake of the cold front passage.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016
For Kgld...isolated thunderstorms are expected during the late
afternoon and early evening. At this time it looks like they will
be just east of the site. So will only insert vcts from 00z to
04z. Some fog is expected again late tonight into early Sunday.
Chose to just have 6sm from 12z to 16z.
For Kmck...There will be a better chance of thunderstorms to
affect the site. However due to spotty coverage will only insert
vcts from 22z to 04z. Later tonight, mvfr conditions are expected
from 10z to 15z.