


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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879 FXUS63 KGLD 131739 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1139 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - 5-10% chance for shower/storms this afternoon along a boundary roughly from Flagler to Norton. Sudden/sporadic wind gusts of 50-60 mph are possible. - Warmer temperatures in the 90s to start the week. - Daily chances for showers and storms begin Tuesday during the afternoon to evening hours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Dissipating stratus across SW portions of Cheyenne county Colorado is ongoing this morning yielding a relatively sunny and warmer day than what was experienced yesterday as high temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. Winds are forecast to become lighter as the day goes on as a sagging frontal boundary looks to set up across the area which will essentially eliminate our wind field; outside of this boundary however (eastern Colorado and eastern portions of the CWA) some sporadic gusts up to 20 mph are possible with diurnal mixing. I did add in some 5-10% chance pops across this boundary which based on latest guidance looks to be draped roughly Flagler up through Norton. Overall forcing is nebulous but RAP forecast soundings do show us reaching our convective temperatures so it`s not impossible for a rogue shower or storm to develop with severe downburst winds possible as inverted v soundings are in place. The most likely outcome with this boundary other than shifting winds is cumulus development along it. No landspout threat is currently anticipated due to the lack of strong surface convergence. Southerly winds are forecast to continue through the night with some wind gusts along and west of Highway 25 of 20-25 mph as a low level jet develops across the area. Some stratus can`t be ruled out as well across eastern Colorado into Monday morning. Monday, high pressure across the western CONUS begins to break down through the day. A surface trough then nudges into the area which is forecast to bring some breezier winds around 25-35 mph to western and central portions of the area. Even warmer temperatures than today are currently forecast with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s across the forecast area. The afternoon hours are currently forecast to remain dry but could see some increase in coverage of Palmer Divide storms after 6pm MT moving into eastern Colorado with a weak shortwave off of the mountains. No severe storms are currently anticipated with these as they should be on the weakening trend of things as they move in, but will need to keep a close eye on stronger winds as they dissipate along with some heat burst potential as well. A stronger low level jet is forecast to develop Monday night and into Tuesday morning leading to breezy winds continuing overnight with gusts around 30 mph. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Moving into next week, the upper level ridge moves further across the Great Plains while lee surface troughs develop along the Front Range to High Plains region. Moisture will try to advect into the Tri-State area from Mexico and the Gulf beginning Monday evening, bringing some weak 20% chances for showers or storms along the Front Range into Northeast Colorado. Confidence is low currently for any storms to make it into the forecast area. The active pattern continues through much of next week with daily chances for showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours through the weekend. With the ridge pattern remaining dominant and limited potential for forcing, confidence is low to moderate. Should severe storms develop, all modes can be possible with flash flooding a possibility for those who get multiple rounds of rain. High temperatures will be in the 90s Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday will be slightly cooler with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Thursday and Friday could have highs in the 80s both days before warming into the low 90s. Overnight lows each night will fluctuate around the 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1029 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 VFR conditions are currently forecast for each terminal. Winds are forecast to become SSE through the afternoon as a boundary sags into the area. Along this boundary am forecasting a cumulus field to develop around 20Z along with a 5-10% chance of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms through 02Z. Confidence is low in the storms developing due to the lack of forcing and the limited spatial nature of any convection precludes me from introducing into the TAF. If this starts to look more probable of occurring over then an AMD will be warranted. A more southerly wind component is forecast to occur overnight along with some wind gusts up to 20 knots at KGLD as a weak LLJ develops. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...KMK AVIATION...Trigg