Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 210043
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES SENT OUT TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMP TRENDS WITH SUNSET
NOW UPON THE CWA. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH INFLUX OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA OVER NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS TO SEE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TEMP-WISE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR EASTERN ZONES FOR POTENTIAL OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS THE EXTENT OF FREEZING FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE VERY SHALLOW AS LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

ALSO EXPECT THICKENING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH HE
NIGHT. THIS WILL HINDER ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG BUT NOT A LOT AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL. ONE FOG AND
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...HOW MUCH WARMING THERE WILL BE IS IN QUESTION.

SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. THINKING WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS UP THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH 700 MB ALONG WITH
DRY GROUND AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. BELIEVE FOR THE
MOST PART THE MODELS ARE TOO COOL. THEY HAVE SHOWN THIS TENDENCY
RECENTLY. WILL TEND TO GO TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...BUT NOTEWORTHY ELEMENTS BEAR CONTINUED VIGILANCE.

SURFACE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW CENTER TAKES THE FAR
SOUTHERLY ROUTE OVER THE ROCKIES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
APPROACHES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
UNDERDOING HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAK TREND IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
RESULT. THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL
WEAKER POORLY DISCERNED IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR STILL BEING DEPICTED.

COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GFS SHIFTS THE OVERALL PATTERN EAST WITH THE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY
(THANKSGIVING) WHILE THE ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN DOWN INTO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. IF THE
GFS PANS OUT...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL HAVE A WARM AND
DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT...IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. TEND TO PREFER THE GFS AND
HAVE REFLECTED THAT IN THE FORECAST...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE ECMWF
COMPLETELY. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY VERY
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT-
BKN120-250. KMCK MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MVFR FOG
AROUND 5SM FROM 07Z-15Z FRIDAY. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS FOR BOTH
SITES...SHIFTING SSE 5-10KTS BY 03Z FRIDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN



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