Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 271740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. HAD MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z. QUESTIONS
THEN BECOMES WHERE WILL THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION FIRE.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HINTING AT AN AREA REDEVELOPING AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE.

THE NAM AND RAP AND LARGER SCALE MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE MAIN AREA
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THAT AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE
SAME TIME. SO ADJUST THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA.

SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THE GREATEST BUT WILL HAVE GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. CONSIDERING THAT AND THE GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...GREATEST RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUINTER TO
COLBY TO GOODLAND TO FLAGLER.

PER THE LATEST TRENDS...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS
10-20KTS. BY 00Z THURSDAY...VCTS WITH BKN040-050 GIVING WAY TO 3SM
IN TSRA THRU 03Z...THEN MIX OF MVFR/VFR SKIES AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. SOME FOG AFT 09Z POSSIBLE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SW AROUND 10KTS BY 09Z.

FOR KMCK...MIX OF VFR/MVFR SKY CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-050 WITH 3SM
IN TSRA BR THRU 05Z THURSDAY...THEN 3-6SM BR AND BKN015-030 THRU
MID MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO VFR. SE WINDS
10-20KTS BACKING TO THE ESE 10KTS BY 08Z...THEN SOUTH 10KTS BY
15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



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