Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 300858
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
258 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Weak upper disturbances rotating around the anticyclone centered
over Oklahoma and a very moist air mass will combine to produce
scattered thunderstorms over the region today through Wednesday.
Due to weak instability and shear, no severe storms are
anticipated. However, with 0-6km mean winds of 5kts or less, slow
moving storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. In addition,
areas of fog, occasionally dense, will develop in the overnight
hours and persist through mid morning. Rain chances will gradually
diminish Wednesday night and Thursday morning as a cold front
backs into the area from the northeast. Much drier area on the
cool side of the front will slowly advect into the region, but it
may take most of the day Thursday for the showers/thunderstorms to
finally end.

High temperatures will be below normal through the period due to
cloud cover and precipitation, while low temperatures will be near
normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 123 AM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

The beginning of the extended period, Friday, will have the CWA
under a ridge that is starting to push east out of the region. This
is due to a strong upper level low pressure system moving into the
Pacific Northwest. As this low pressure begins to slowly move east
the ridge will slowly move east as well. With this brings southwest
flow into the region. That in addition to 700 mb shortwaves will
bring chances for precipitation each day during the period. Current
model runs show the GFS to be more amplified with the trough in the
western CONUS than the European, so precipitation chances and timing
are still uncertain. Come Monday the trough will be closer to the
region and could potentially bring a frontal passage over the area.
This is still uncertain due to the model discrepancies. The European
has the front east of the region and the GFS has the front moving
through the CWA late Monday night. If the front does move through
the region this could potentially create greater chances for storm
development.

Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s over the
region through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Conditions at MCK and GLD will start out VFR with a few showers
lingering in the vicinity through about 10Z. With overnight lows
approaching surface dewpoints in the middle 60s after 10Z, areas
of fog are expected to develop across the region and should begin
to affect the TAF sites bringing conditions down to MVFR and
with visibilities mainly between 3 and 5 miles and ceilings
occasionally between 1500 and 2500 ft AGL through 15Z. GLD may
occasionally see visibilities down to one mile or less between
12Z-15Z. After 15Z, expect a return to VFR conditions with
scattered thunderstorms developing after 18Z and continuing into
the evening hours.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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