Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

902
FXUS63 KGLD 110705
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1205 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE EATEN INTO THE SNOWPACK TODAY. TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE WARMER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S
OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO
STAY RATHER HIGH DESPITE WESTERLY WINDS. MORE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
A FRONT BACKDOORING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

THIS IS WILL CREATE A LIGHT UPSLOPE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
FIELD...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS. LATEST
GUIDANCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE NOW NOT ONLY INDICATING A RATHER
HIGH CHANCE OF STRATUS BUT ALSO FOG IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA.
AS A RESULT HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING FOG FROM THE
MIDDLE OF TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING TOMORROW.

HAVE TEMPERATURES COOLER PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE/OVERNIGHT
FORECASTER REASONING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STRATUS AND FOG
BURN OFF...THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TOMORROWS MAXES
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THOSE
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED SOME MORE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...QUICK MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE. A LARGE BATCH OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MOISTURE BELOW 700MB NOT
TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION SO WILL KEEP IT DRY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. CLOUDS SLOWLY
EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT LEAVING A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER...ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. MOST OF THE MID AND UPPER MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS IS NORTH OF
THE AREA SO AM EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NO
PRECIPITATION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY THEN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANY CLOUDINESS EAST
OF THE AREA LEAVING US NEARLY IF NOT CLOUD FREE. WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES. SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST LOW TO MID 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR MID
FEBRUARY WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH LOW 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO MILD
(ABOUT TWICE AS WARM AS NORMAL) WITH LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND SUPPORTING A CHANCE FOR STRATUS/FOG AND POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMCK THURSDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITION SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. BY
EVENING WINDS SHOULD SHIFT THE THE NORTHWEST WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE EAST.|


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.