Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 010847
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
247 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE SOME SPOTS OF LIMITED VISIBILITY WHERE THE EVENING`S
STORMS HAVE MOVED AND WHERE THERE WILL BE A CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD. VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO UNDER A MILE IN A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. WILL CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FORECAST FOR THE EVENING HAS BEEN FAIRLY ON PAR FOR THE STORM
COVERAGE...BUT DID UPDATE IT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE GROUP OF
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH INSTABILITY
DECLINING STORM INTENSITY SHOULD DECLINE THROUGH THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AM
THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH STORM COVERAGE WILL THERE
BE AND WILL THERE BE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF OUR CWA WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE A
LEE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE
WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE PALMER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
COLORADO AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY HEIGHT
FALLS ALONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PROBLEM IS BEST AREAS OF VERTICAL
MOTION ARE SHOWN TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
IN HIGHER COVERAGE. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE CO STATE LINE...AND RAP/HRRR SHOWS SB CAPE VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IN OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.9 TO 1.00" HIGHLIGHT THE MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
STREAM INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF.

HIGH CINH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS  EASTERN COLORADO...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS
OCCURRING ALONG FRONT RANGE/BENEATH SURFACE TROUGH CENTER WHERE
CAP HAS WEAKENED. GUIDANCE SHOWS CAP WEAKENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR THROUGH 00Z...AND I STILL EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A 30-35KT LLJ AND VEERING
WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHEER VALUES AT LEAST
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
LIMITED FORCING OVER OUR CWA WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY ENDING QUICKER
THAN MODEL QPF FIELDS WOULD INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO COVER
POSSIBILITIES AND REMAIN CONSISTENT...HOWEVER I THINK MOST
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER AFTER 03Z.

MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS OUR CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE BETTER THAN
TODAY...AND CONSIDERING NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON T/TD
TRENDS AND ONGOING PROFILES...WE COULD SEE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO OR INITIATING
OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS STILL SHOW THE SAME
PATTEN AS THEY DID THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY
DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UNTIL A CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME THEY SHOW A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL CAUSE A MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION. WITHIN THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS... SOME STRONGER THAN OTHERS... ARE ANTICIPATE TO PASS OVER
THE AREA. MEANWHILE... ON THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION.

THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE TRI
STATE AREA LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S RANGE WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES DIPS INTO THE
UPPER 50S FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. CLOSE TO SUNRISE
A FEW DIFFERENT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE TAF SITES INDICATE IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING FOR A FEW HOURS. WAS INITIALLY SKEPTICAL OF
THIS...BUT AFTER MORE INVESTIGATING THREE DIFFERENT MODELS HAD
VERY SIMILAR CEILING HEIGHTS FOR THE TAF SITES WITH AN ENSEMBLE
MODEL INDICATING A 50-50 SHOT AT THOSE CEILINGS. CLIMATOLOGY ALSO
SUPPORTS THE TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH THE ODDS OF
HAVE CEILINGS THIS LOW ARE NOT TOO GOOD. WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
MODELS AND AN ENSEMBLE ALL SHOWING THE SAME THING...THIS BOOSTED
CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A MENTION IN THE TAFS. LOW CEILINGS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MID MORNING IN TIME FOR THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY. THERE WILL BE SOME STORM CHANCES FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NOT PLACE A MENTION OF STORMS IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JTL



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