Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 110930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
230 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

Today-tonight...some cooler air backs into the area during the day
with 850mb temperatures dropping about 7F (west) to 13F (east)
compared to yesterday. This would support highs in the low to mid
50s which is currently advertised in the forecast. Low temperatures
in the upper teens to low 20s. Northwest winds increase into the 20
to 30 mph range with higher gusts by late morning and continue
through mid to late afternoon. The combination of the strong winds
and low humidity supports the current Red Flag Warning area (see
fire weather section below).

Tuesday-Tuesday night...should see a few more mid and high level
clouds through the period moving down from the north. Much less wind
compared to Monday with speeds around 10 mph from the northwest.
850mb temperatures warm about 5F to 10F across the area supporting
highs in the mid 50s to low 60s (warmest across the west). Low
temperatures above normal with mid 20s to low 30s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...another cold front moves through the
area with daytime winds from the northwest in the 20 to 25 mph range
with higher gusts. 850mb temperatures cool up to 6F from Tuesdays
forecast values supporting highs in the mid 50s to near 60 which is
handled well in the current forecast. Low temperatures in the mid
20s to around 30.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

At the start of the extended period models are showing an amplified
upper level ridge over the western portion of the country with upper
level trough over the central portion. This will produce north-
northwesterly upper level flow during the first part of the period.

Heading into Friday, and on through the weekend, The ridge looks to
flatten out over the Plains with a longwave trough following it on
Sunday. This will cause the upper level flow to shift southwesterly
over the weekend.

On Monday, another amplified upper level ridge builds over the
western portion of the country allowing the northwest upper level .
flow to return over the region.

Even with a surface front expected Friday night, expect dry
conditions to continue throughout the extended period with periods
of windy/breezy conditions.

The region will see above normal high temperatures during the
extended period. Daytime highs will range into the upper 40s on
Thursday followed by the upper 50s to lower 60s over the weekend and
into Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 230 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Both terminals will see northwest winds gusting near 40kts during
the day decreasing quickly by sunset. For the overnight hours
winds begin from the northwest 10kts or less backing slowly to the
west by the end of the period at similar speeds. Variable
cloudiness is expected at both terminals at all levels of the


KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 5 PM
     MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for KSZ001-002-013-014-

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning to 5 PM
     MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for NEZ079-080.



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