Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 241038
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON RADAR TREND
OVER LAST COUPLE HOURS. PRECIPITATION THAT HAD BEEN OVER EASTERN
ZONES EARLIER HAS SHIFTED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA QUICKER
THAN EXPECTED...LEAVING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP COMING OFF THE
FRONT RANGE AS THE REMAINDER OF EXPECTED PRECIP. IN AREAS THAT
HAVE SEEN SOME CLEARING...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED CLOSE TO 32F...SO
HAVE BROUGHT IN MENTION OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS GOOD AND ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S W/ VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. REGIONAL RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THRU THE
ROCKIES AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THRU THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR LIGHT -RW AND
EVEN THE CHANCE FOR -TRW. THE CONTINUED FOCUS WILL STILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BASED ON PLACEMENT OF SFC FRONT AND
MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE. IN AREAS WHERE -RW HAS FALLEN...DO EXPECT
SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. WESTERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO SEE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HRS AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...SO HAVE KEPT OUT OF THIS REGION.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY STILL IS THE DRY CONDITIONS THAT
WILL ENSUE AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS THAT WILL PUSH
INTO AREA BY MIDDAY...LASTING THRU EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEARING 45 MPH. MODEL RH VALUES DO DROP INTO THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUANCE OF RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
DESPITE THE RAINFALL SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED OVERNIGHT...AREAS WILL
DRY OUT THRU THE MORNING...AND WILL ALLOW FOR BLOWING DUST CONDITIONS
TO SET UP BY MIDDAY. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING AROUND HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS BEHIND
EXITING SHORTWAVE.

GOING INTO TONIGHT AS WINDY CONDITIONS ABATE...COOLER AIR PREVAILS
MAKING FOR A NICE EVENING. FOR WEDNESDAY ON THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES MOVE
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH EACH OF THESE
SYSTEMS...BUT ONLY ON THE SCALE OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS. ALSO WITH THESE
TWO SHORTWAVES...THE GRADIENT WITH AND BEHIND THESE WILL BE STRONG
WITH LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINTING AT WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR MORE BLOWING DUST TO AFFECT THE AREA...BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF DAY FOR PASSAGE AND AMT OF PRECIP. BUT
OVERALL PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME AREAS/PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE MIX FOR NOW AND WILL AWAIT
FURTHER CONSISTENCY IN MODELS TO PUT IN.

OVERALL FOR TEMPS...CWA WILL SEE TODAY AS THE HIGHEST OUT OF THE 3-
DAY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF EACH SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVE WED/THURS. 60S LOOK GOOD FOR THE CWA TODAY...STEPPING DOWN
INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS INTO THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OFF
IN THE 30S BUT DROP TOWARDS THE 20S FOR WED/THURS NIGHTS. THESE TWO
NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE DEPENDENT OF CLOUD COVER REMAINING OVER AREA FOR
THE PASSAGE OF THE TWO SHORTWAVES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST...PESSIMISM TOWARDS ANY PRECIPITATION HAS
GROWN AS FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS UNANIMOUSLY TRENDED DRIER. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...LATEST RUN NOW HOLDS THE BEST LIFT/FORCING FURTHER EAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY BUT THE
LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE CONCERNING. MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SOME TOWERING CUMULUS/VIRGA BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

IN TERMS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE THE DOMINANT THREAT THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR EACH DAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD
OCCUR ON DAYS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THUS COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THESE DAYS IN PARTICULAR ARE FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW
DAYS...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10-15 PERCENT.
OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN FOR THESE DAYS IS CURRENTLY NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS. OBVIOUSLY...FORECAST GUIDANCE IS HAVING SOME
DIFFICULTY WITH THE TIMING OF FRONTS...FORECAST MIXING AND THUS WIND
STRENGTH AT THIS TIME. WITH LARGER FIRES RECENTLY OBSERVED ON DAYS
WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND LIGHTER WINDS OR DAYS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY 20-25 PERCENT AND WINDS GUSTING 30-35 MPH...EACH DAY
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST NEEDS TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DECREASE AT KMCK FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
KGLD WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. CURRENT KGLD
RADAR IS DETECTING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES. MOISTURE RETURN WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR STRATUS AND FOG AT KMCK. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING WILL ERODE THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KMCK.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE SET TO AFFECT THE TRI STATE REGION BY
MIDDAY ON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STILL LOOKING FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT BY MIDDAY...THEN
RECOVER BY 03Z-04Z. EXPECTING WINDS TO BE STEADY IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS REACHING NEAR THE 45 MPH MARK AT TIMES...TAPERING
OFF AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-
     041-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS
FIRE WEATHER...JN


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