Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 040823
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT
FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RIDGE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE ROCKIES AND ALMOST NO MOVEMENT WITH THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.  BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES NORTHWEST FLOW WAS
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW.  A
FAIRLY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BEING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH NOT MOVE OVER THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING.  LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A STRIP OF SUBSIDENCE WAS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO...EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF A BURLINGTON TO RUSSELL SPRINGS LINE WHERE
MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR 40KTS WILL BE PRESENT.
AM THINKING THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SHOULD
HOLD BACK STORM INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IF STORMS ARE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

THIS EVENING STORMS COVERAGE WILL BE BEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE AREA WHERE THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH.  AS
TEMPERATURES COOL THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME A BIT MORE STABLE
CAUSING CAPE TO DECLINE SOME.  THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE
AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING WHICH SHOULD HELP STORMS TO CONTINUE
DESPITE THE DECLINING CAPE.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT A BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20MB SO LOW
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE
ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 800J/KG TO WORK WITH ABOVE 800MB.  AS THE LIFT
MOVES EAST IT WILL WEAKEN...SO AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE ALL THAT EXPANSIVE.

SATURDAY THE EASTERN TWO COLUMNS OF COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
STORMS DURING THE MORNING AS LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING
THE AFTERNOON WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE
BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT.  DUE
TO THE SOMEWHAT HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY.  A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ARE
POSSIBLE AS AN 850MB CONVERGENCE ZONE EXITS THE AREA.  ALTHOUGH
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 18 AND 20
C...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
SLIDE INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE.  ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION.
CHANCES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS. SURFACE WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL
STRENGTHEN BY 15Z AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SE WINDS GUSTING
20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND SCATTERED CU AT FL050-
070 SATURDAY.  THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSRA TOWARD
DAYBREAK IN THE VCNTY OF KGLD BUT FEEL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND DID
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF.  LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY...TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DLF


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