Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 191121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
521 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows a
shortwave trough over Wyoming and Colorado, with a region of
subsidence/dry air moving northeast out of south central Colorado.
At the surface Lo pressure is in place with a surface trough axis
extending north across eastern Colorado. A cold front is over then
Northern plains, moving into northeast Wyoming and approaching
southern South Dakota.

The shortwave trough will move east and pass over our CWA today
and tonight. Region of subsidence may remain in place over our
southern CWA limiting chances there. Moisture profiles will be
slow to saturate, and dry lower levels may limit potential for
precip to reach the surface. Limited instability and a slow
increase in moisture depth/moisture profiles could eventually
allow light showers to develop. Guidance is still showing an
overlapping weak precip signal in our north and northeast today
and tonight, with dry conditions elsewhere. By Thursday the trough
will be east, and subsidence ahead of building ridge in the west
will overspread our CWA. Very dry/stable air will then remain in
place through the rest of the week.

Regarding temperatures: The cold front in the northern plains
should pass over our CWA this morning and Canadian high pressure
will slide out of the Rockies towards the Central High Plains
tonight, then eastward through Thursday night. The air mass change
will support cooler temperatures Today and Thursday (upper
50s/lower 60s), before the flow aloft shifts and WAA brings above
normal temps back to the region Friday (mid 70s).

A frost (or freeze) is possible Thursday and Friday
mornings. As surface high pressure remains just west, we may see
enough of a gradient that winds around 10 kt could limit peak
radiational conditions to all but the far west tonight. There is
also a small chance that stratus develops along forward edge of
ridge ahead of low BL Tds, and this could hold overnight lows up.
On Thursday night/Friday morning radiational conditions may
better better, but the air mass will also begin to moderate
lowering confidence in lows. Ultimately a frost advisory may be
needed (06- 15Z) tonight/Thursday morning and Thursday
night/Friday morning for our west. There is enough uncertainty
that after coordination, the decision was made to hold off for

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

An upper ridge looks to be the dominating feature this weekend
into early next week. This leads to dry weather persisting for
the large majority of the extended period.

The ridge progresses onto the Plains over the weekend, with its
axis moving east of the region on Monday. Southwesterly flow
then develops aloft as a trough advances onto the Pacific coast on
Tuesday, bringing some moisture towards the High Plains. Will
continue to monitor how models resolve discrepancies with the
trough as next week draws near, but this appears to be our next
shot at precipitation.

Temperatures generally follow a slight cooling trend during this
time frame. Highs start out in the upper 70s to low 80s on
Saturday and end mainly in the low to mid 70s Tuesday. Lows stay
in the upper 30s to 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Wed Oct 19 2016

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period, with
upstream trends and current short range guidance no longer
favoring MVFR cigs this morning. A few light showers or virga will
be possible, mainly over southwest Nebraska (KMCK) this afternoon
through late tonight. Confidence in coverage was too low to
include mention in TAF. Winds will shift to the northeast as a
front moves through the region and increase to 10-12kt (a few
gusts to 20 kt at KGLD). Winds then decrease tonight and
eventually back towards the northwest as high pressure builds west
to east.




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