Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251935
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS H5/H7 UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH PV HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER SW
NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
NORTON AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LOWER TD VALUES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING SOUTH AND WEST WITH NW BL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE (TQ VALUES IN EXCESS OF 20) AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG SEVERAL BANDS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ROTATING IN PROXIMITY TO MAXIMUM HEIGHT FALLS AROUND UPPER LOW.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO THE WEST TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AS WE LOOSE
DAYTIME HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. GUIDANCE DOES
HOLD ONTO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN OUR
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH TREND SHOULD BE
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES...AND SHEER REMAIN EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INITIATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...AND WITH 0-6KM MEAN WINDS (ALONG
WITH BUNKERS LEFT/RIGHT MOTIONS) TO THE EAST THIS WOULD CARRY
STRONGER CELLS AWAY FROM OUR CWA. ITS WORTH WATCHING SEVERE THREAT
IN OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST BASED
ON POSITION OF COLD FRONT (AND ITS FURTHER MOTION EASTWARD).

WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/0-3 KM CAPE IN PLACE BENEATH
UPPER LOW THERE COULD BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR NON SUPERCELLUAR
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/REGIONS OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF OUR CWA AND THERE ARE VERY FEW
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MISOVORTICES TO DEVELOP.
WHILE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO.

TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. LEE TROUGH ALONG CO/KS
BORDER WILL RESULT IN DECENT WAA ACROSS THE CWA WITH INCREASING CAPE
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY SEVERAL POCKETS OF 700-500MB VORTICITY COULD
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THESE DO
APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL...SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. SHEER WILL BE
VERY LIMITED AND WITH MARGINAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST
ONE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  EAST
OF THE MAIN FEATURE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM IT AND BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE LIFT WILL
BE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA ARE 75%-90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

WITH THE DRY LINE WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHER MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG THAN THEY ARE WITH
THE CAPE FOR TODAY.   SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO THE INSTABILITY LINGERING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE WEATHER SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE
AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH STRONG...DEEP...PERSISTENT LIFT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AM THINKING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA.  WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES/AMOUNTS...BUT DECIDED NOT TO SINCE THIS IS TWO DAYS AWAY AND
THE FORECASTED TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CHANGE BY
THEN.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF
CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A LACK OF
AN UPPER OR MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LITTLE BULK SHEAR OR STRONG
HELICITY VALUES IN THE PROFILE.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE
SEVERE AND HAVE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 900 AND 1300 J/KG PER GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. SURFACE FORCING
WILL BE IN QUESTION WITH A LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE GFS DOES HINT AT A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT COULD SPARK
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. PROFILE CAPE WILL BE LESS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1800 J/KG AS A
RESULT OF WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED PROFILES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 500 MB WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES IS
APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
EXTREMELY SATURATED GFS MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES AND SIMILAR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD HAVE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
FORECAST COLLABORATION THRESHOLDS.  FUTURE FORECASTS WILL MOST
LIKELY INCREASE POPS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CEASE BY SUNDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
IFR/MVFR STRATUS/FOG TO BRIEFLY ADVECT OVER KMCK 11-13Z AS SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE AND POSITION OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION. OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NEBRASKA
WHERE I INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA GROUP FOR KMCK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD
TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT
KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL/MK
AVIATION...DR



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