Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 190759
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
159 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Latest upper air analysis has changed little since yesterday.  The
ridge that has been over the Great Basin is now centered over the
High Plains. At the surface the weak front that has been over the
Tri-State Area has shifted slightly to the east.

Tonight the south winds will bring up higher dew points from the
south over the east half of the forecast area.  The moisture
advection will result in some fog developing, with visibilities
generally around a mile to three miles in the fog.  The thickest fog
will develop around 7am CT east of Highway 83.  Lows will be warmer
than last night due to the moisture advection.  Meanwhile a surface
trough will begin to move through from the northwest.

Sunday morning the surface trough will continue to move through.
Behind the trough winds will turn to the northwest.  As the surface
trough approaches the fog, drier air with the trough will cause the
fog to end around 10am CT. Meanwhile around noon the winds will
reach their peak over the northwest quadrant of the forecast area,
north of I-70/west of Highway 27. During the afternoon the winds
will gradually decline as the breezy 850mb winds end.  Highs will
reach record or near record values due to the increased WAA behind
the surface trough. See climate section for record information.  The
lower dew points coming in from the west and record/near record
highs may lead to critical fire weather conditions.  See fire
weather section for further information.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 142 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Will start the period under southwest flow ahead of a system in
the Four Corners area. Might see scattered showers on Wednesday
associated with any weak wave in that flow. Main upper feature
will be approaching the central Rockies on Thursday and move
across the adjacent high plains area Thursday night and Friday.
Still considerable differences between the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS
is more open and faster, with less precipitation and more
northerly track, while the ECMWF is slower, developing a closed
low over southwest Kansas, resulting in considerable wraparound
precipitation, possibly as light snow. Until the models can come
into some kind of agreement, will be carrying pops Wednesday
night through Saturday morning in the low to mid range, with a
mention of rain or snow in deference to the ECMWF scenario, and
thunder in deference to the GFS, which has up to 1000 j/kg of
sbcape and deep layer shear of 60-70kts, suggesting at least a low
end severe threat will be possible on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

For Kgld...vfr conditions are expected through the period. Through
12z south winds of 8 to 12 knots will shift to the west. From 12z
to 18z those winds will shift to the northwest/north northwest
from 10 to 13 knots. Those winds will continue until near sunset
the winds become north at around 6 knots.

For Kmck...low level wind shear will be in place until 10z. Vfr
conditions will become mvfr near 12z and continue 16z when they
become vfr once again through the rest of the period. From mid
morning through sunset the winds will shift from the west to
northwest at less than 10 knots. North winds of less than 10 knots
are expected during the evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for
     COZ252.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for
     NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER



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