Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 130923

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
223 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

Through Tonight: The MSLP gradient will begin to tighten this
evening/tonight as the next shortwave in NW flow aloft digs SSE
from Alberta/Saskatchewan into the Dakotas. Expect a light W/WNW
breeze to shift to the NW at 15-20 knots in the 06-09Z time-frame.
With decreased radiational cooling assoc/w increasing wind,
expect warmer lows than in previous nights, ranging from the upper
20s to mid 30s.

Wednesday: Low-level flow will strengthen as the MSLP gradient
tightens on the western periphery of the aforementioned shortwave
/attendant sfc low/ as it digs SE from the Dakotas into the
central/northern MS river valley. Expect winds to abruptly
increase to 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph AOA 16Z and persist for
a few hours before weakening in concert with the MSLP gradient as
the shortwave /attendant sfc low/ progress toward the OH valley.
With CAA in the morning, expect cooler highs in the mid/upper 50s.
Despite gusty winds, minimum RHs are expected to remain AOA 20%
in most locations. Though an elevated risk for adverse fire
behavior will no doubt be present, at this time it does not appear
that RFW criteria will be met.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

At the start of the extended period the models are showing an upper
level trough moving across the region with an associated surface
front. This front will produce a chance of precipitation Saturday
night into the early hours of Sunday morning. The precipitation is
expected to start out as rain showers, then becoming a wintry mix
before turning into snow showers.

By Sunday morning, dry conditions returns, with closer to normal
temperatures, to the local area as the front continues to move east
out of the region. Expect the afternoon high temperatures to reach
the lower 40s.

For the first part of next week expect dry conditions with the
temperatures warming back into the above normal range. Afternoon
high temperature will be in the middle to upper 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1026 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

VFR conditions with scattered high clouds will prevail at MCK and
GLD through the TAF period. Light westerly winds will increase in
strength after 09Z-10Z and turn more northwesterly. Northwest
winds will continue to increase and become gusty through the
morning with peak afternoon gusts around 35kts. Wind speeds will
taper off rapidly after 23Z.




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