Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 172032

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
132 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 122 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

Gusty winds are starting to decrease. The wind/rh
combination very near critical fire weather conditions along and
west of the Colorado/Kansas border. As stated above fortunately
the winds are decreasing/relative humidity is coming up.
Temperatures have warmed up a little more than had previously
expected with not much cooling from yesterday for some location.
McCook has already set a new daily record.

For tonight...winds will have dropped significantly by the
beginning of the period. Winds go light north to light and
variable during the night. With more winds last night temperatures
still went below superblend. Considering the low dewpoints and
lack of wind, I lowered the mins from the previous forecast. One
caveat is that some increase in mid/high level cloud cover is

For Saturday...winds will start out light and variable with
surface ridge near/over the area at the beginning of the day.
Winds slowly shift to the southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Consmos has
been doing well with the temperatures recently and has them
warmer than previous forecast. Considering the lack of mixing and
cloud cover holding back heating a little, went a little below

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1240 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

Monday...winds shift to the northwest during the day and could be
breezy along the CO/KS border behind Sunday nights departing storm
system. Otherwise lots of sunshine with highs in the low to upper
60s. Low temperatures continue mild around to the mid 30s.

Tuesday...another sunny/mostly sunny day with afternoon temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s and lows in the low to mid 30s.
Record/near record high temperatures are possible. At this time most
likely locations for records would be Goodland (73 in 1995 and
previous years), McCook (76 in 1933), Burlington (72 in 2000), Colby
(74 in 1972 and previous years), and Yuma (72 in 1982).

Wednesday...a large upper trough is forecast to move onshore across
the western United States early in the period reaching the
intermountain west by Thursday morning. No impact on our weather
other than a bit of an increase in clouds during the night.
Temperatures remain above normal with highs in the mid to upper 60s
and lows in the low to upper 30s.

Thursday...00z GFS/ECMWF suggest a large dry slot covers the
forecast area during the morning with possibly some breezy south to
southwest winds for parts of the area. For the afternoon hours the
center of the 500mb low is forecast to be in the Yuma or Dundy
county areas with the sfc low over the Gove county area. Winds will
shift to the north and northwest and increase into the breezy
category along and west of the CO/KS border while further east
remain out of the south/southwest. Clouds increase on the backside
of the sfc low and with a little instability generate some showers
and possible thunderstorms. High temperatures generally in the mid
50s to low 60s. For the overnight hours the storm system is expected
to slowly move east through central Kansas. Wraparound precipitation
is possible generally east of the CO/KS border. With northwest winds
around 20 mph with higher gusts bringing colder air into the area a
changeover to snow is expected from west to east starting in the
evening. Right now an inch or two is possible. Low temperatures are
expected to drop into the low 20s to near 30.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1029 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. North winds near
20 knots with gusts near 27 knots are expected at both sites
through the afternoon before decreasing near sunset. After that
the winds will become light and variable through tomorrow with a
shift toward southeast during the mid morning hours on Saturday.




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