Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 210921
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
221 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 221 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...cold arctic air remains
over the area with temperatures ranging in a mix of single numbers
above and below zero. Winds are light for most locales...but even
with the light conditions...wind chill readings are ranging from -2F
down to -19F. Some scattered mid and high clouds are filtering thru
the region...and aiding in the large temp difference by offering
some areas a shield from radiational cooling effects. The snowpack
received from the system yesterday also a factor where temps are
lowest.

Current Wind Chill Advisory will be allowed to continued with focus
on temps around the area thru effective time...15z. Will consider
cancellation if trend is upward a bit in temps to lessen the effects
of wind chill.

Going into today...looking for increasing temps thru the day as
surface ridge shifts east towards the Mississippi Valley...allowing
for WAA on southerly flow. Even with the increase in WAA over the
area...increasing clouds late in the day with approaching
system...will afford the region daytime highs only in the upper 20s
w/ a few locales near 30F.

For tonight on into Thursday...the region see the first in a series
of shortwaves that will move thru the area. This first one will
trigger light precip to start after 06z Thursday and taper off from
SW to NE as the H5/H7 trough swings across the area. Limited QPF
with this system will focus expected light precip mainly north of I-
70 and east of Highway 25. Up to a half inch of light snow is
possible with even a trace of freezing rain based on latest models.

The CWA will see a break in wx conditions Thursday night into Friday
with dry conditions...only to set the region up for a stronger
shortwave to push east off the Rockies going into Friday
night...helped by an inverted surface trough/low to pass south of
the area during this timeframe. For Friday night...more widespread
light snow is expected with highest amounts around an inch north of
I-70. Eastern zones could see a few hundredths of an inch of
freezing rain as temps transition to more snow conditions.

For temps...highs Thursday/Friday mainly in the 30s w/ a few 40s in
far southern zones. Overnight lows will range from the teens tonight
up to the 20s in most locales going into Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Southwest upper level flow will persist through Saturday when a
stronger short wave trough will move through, then dry westerly
flow behind the trough. Currently the upper level short wave
trough looks to move through quick enough Friday night and
Saturday to produce only a couple inches of snow. However theta-e
lapse rates will be near or below 0 in the snowfall. If this
continues to be the case by the time Friday night/Saturday arrive,
snowfall amounts will need be to increased, despite the snow
moving through fairly quickly.

Aside from the first part of the weekend, the other timeframe of
interest will be Wednesday night.  Currently the forecast is dry for
this night.  However latest data suggests the potential for freezing
drizzle.  There are two factors that greatly limit confidence of
freezing drizzle occurring.

The first is the small amount of lift that occurs during the night.
The freezing drizzle event in late December had more lift than
Wednesday night, which is what lowers confidence of this occurring.
However with a saturated environment above the surface, not much
lift is needed to create drizzle.  So have moderate confidence there
will be enough lift to form freezing drizzle.  Currently the best
lift/saturation is east of Highway 83.

The second factor limiting confidence is the saturated layer is very
close to the -10C line, so almost cold enough to support snow
instead of drizzle.  If the saturated layer deepens further, or
cools more, the odds of snow forming instead of drizzle go up.
Confidence of precipitation type for Wednesday night, should any
occur, is low.

Temperatures will warm during the period, with the warmest day on
Tuesday as the jet stream slides slightly further north.  However,
looking out past the forecast period, more cold air looks likely for
the latter half of next week as an upper level short wave trough
deepens over the Rockies early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 905 PM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

For KGLD, vfr conditions through about 02z. After 03z low clouds
move in from the south producing mvfr cigs. Could be some
visibility restrictions as well with possibly light precipitation but
this far out will keep it out of the forecast. Winds generally
variable around 5kts through 14z then increase and possibly gust
near 20kts during the late morning through early afternoon hours.
For tomorrow evening winds steady from the southeast near 10kts.

For KMCK, vfr conditions through about 03z. After 04z low clouds
move in from the south producing mvfr cigs. Could be some
visibility restrictions as well with possibly light precipitation
but this far out will keep it out of the forecast. Winds generally
variable around 5kts through 17z then east or east-southeast
around 7kts through the rest of the period.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ this morning for
     KSZ001-002-013-014-027.

CO...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for COZ090>092.

NE...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ this morning for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99


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