Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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673
FXUS63 KGLD 032026
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
126 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

AS OF 3 AM CST...2 AM MST...CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT COMPARED TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED AT THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLOUDY AS SOME STRATUS HAS
SPREAD IN EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S BUT A COUPLE LOW SPOTS IN EAST COLORADO ARE REPORTING SINGLE
DIGITS. WINDS ARE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D
IMAGERY INDICATES NO PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
IS SPREADING OVER IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...NOW CENTERED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW HAS TAKEN
HOLD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER IDAHO ACCORDING TO LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ONLY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER POSSIBLE IS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

BEGINNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES...FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED COLD
TEMPS TODAY WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FORECASTER RATIONALE.
HOWEVER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE A DIFFERENT STORY. MANY MEMBERS OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A RAPID AND SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO POTENTIALLY LOW
40S. THIS DOES NOT AGREE WITH THE WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFIELD
THAT WILL BE AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AN INVERSION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BREAK...
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WITH REGARDS TO LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL CONCERNS...A VERY
COLD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WIDESPREAD
SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TANK WITH PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. COLDEST SPOTS
WILL BE WHERE WINDS GO CALM...PARTICULARLY IN AREA LOW SPOTS.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BUT AM CURRENTLY ON THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AS NEEDED TO
REALIZE FORECAST LOWS. HOWEVER...IF WIND SPEEDS REMAIN A LITTLE
HIGHER AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS
MAY STILL OCCUR. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES. IF ONE IS NEEDED...AN ADVISORY WOULD LIKELY COVER LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.

THE PRIMARY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...ARRIVES WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.
IN ADDITION...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LIFT SUGGEST SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
MENTION OF FLURRIES. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OVER NEBRASKA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME MINOR (LESS THAN ONE HALF
INCH) ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA WITH SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE INCH. SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WEAK...WITH BETTER
FORCING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
LIMITED. SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME. REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...LEAVING THE CENTRAL CONUS UNDER BROAD
NORTHERLY OR NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY.
EVEN WITHOUT THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE SLOWLY MELTING SNOW
FIELD THERE COULD BE A LARGE WEST TO EAST GRADIENT AS DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW FURTHER EAST SEND COLD SURGES AIR SOUTHWARD. GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST THESE SHALLOW COLD
AIR MASSES COULD EXTEND. HOWEVER THINK THE SNOW FIELD WILL BE THE
BIGGEST PLAYER IN THE TEMPERATURES AND PREFER TO ERR ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STRATUS IS MOVING OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY A FEW REMAINING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND KMCK. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 12
TO 17 MPH. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...TL



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