Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KGLD 201930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1230 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 358 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

Main forecast issue will be fire weather concerns for today. Minor
secondary concern is if area will see any precipitation later
tonight into early Tuesday morning. Satellite showing an amplified
flow across the Pacific. This transitions to a broad ridge/fast
westerly flow across the country. Very dry air mass in place through
mid levels. Air mass has also warmer over the last 24 hours.

Models started out fine at mid and upper levels. Only minor issues
was the output being a little too low with the height field over the
region. Ukmet and the Canadian were doing a little better than the
rest on the low level thermal field.

Today/tonight...Left front quadrant of a near 160 knot jet will
begin affecting the western half of the area late in the afternoon.
Then it remains near to just south and west of the area with jet
axis centered over Colorado. Key for today is how much/thick the
cirrus will be which impacts the mixing/temperatures. For the
discussion todays fire weather concern, please refer to the fire
weather section below.

Large shield of cirrus has to been over the northwest and north
central portion of the country. Have been monitor trends on this
cloud cover and comparing to the latest model data. Trends since
around midnight has been for the cirrus to thin/warm as it
progresses east and south from its place of origin. Have seen this
happen before with cirrus in northwest flow aloft. The more
aggressive Gfs and Ecmwf are too high with the rh while the Canadian
and Nam are closer to reality.

So at this time am not expecting a thick/dense enough cirrus shield
to hinder the warmup. With warm air advection and downslope winds
strengthening and continuing through the day, am expecting a good
warm up. 2 meter temperatures are cooler with the warm MOS about 5
degrees warmer. This agrees with the progged 850 mb temperatures. 2
meters were too cool yesterday with the MOS closer. So raised maxes
toward these warmer values.

Again models bringing a slug mid level moisture later tonight with a
dry layer expected from 700 mb down. More 00z data produced very
light precipitation than yesterday. However, the 06z output cut back
on the those very low amounts. With the jet and brief mid level
forcing would not be surprised to see some sprinkles or flurries
depending on the temperatures. However this is low probability, will
not insert anything in, and will brief the day shift on this.

Strong cold front moves in later tonight which is slightly faster
than what was shown yesterday. Increasing clouds and downslope winds
in advance of the front will make for mild low temperatures.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Strong jet axis moves slowly across the area
and looks to be east of the area late in the afternoon to early
evening. The above mentioned moisture moves through in the morning.
That and the cold air advection will make for a much cooler day.
What the blend gave me looks reasonable and did not change.
Cold front moves through early in the day. Gradient and decent 3
hour pressure rises support at least breezy conditions.

Wednesday/Wednesday night...Strong ridging aloft builds into the
central and western portion of the country. So plentiful sunshine
and light downslope winds will allow for a good warmup. Again what
the blend gave me looked reasonable and did not change.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

No major weather concerns are expected this period. Return flow
gets underway Tuesday night behind the front, and gave some
thought to adding patchy fog with the increasing moisture.
However, SREF probabilities are low and surface wind direction
unfavorable from the southwest to west by Wednesday morning, so
left it out. Otherwise, upper ridge will amplify northward across
the Rockies and be the dominant feature through the period.
Temperatures will be much above normal through the end of the
week. One shortwave trough does temporarily weaken the ridge
Thursday night and Friday, but the trough will track across the
northern plains so strongest lift will stay north and no
precipitation is expected. The accompanying cold front will drop
temperatures for Saturday back to near normal, then gradually
warming to slightly above normal next Sunday and Monday as the
ridge rebuilds.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1029 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the TAF period.
Gusty west winds are anticipated this afternoon as a pre-frontal
surface trough moves across the central high plains region. Mid
level clouds will move into the region along and behind the cold
front overnight with scattered lower clouds possible through
Tuesday morning.


KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ001.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ252.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ079.



AVIATION...LOCKHART is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.