Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 261730
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NEVADA LATE THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO UTAH THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO BY 00Z THURSDAY. ONE OR TWO DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS GOING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISNT VERY HIGH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WEST...LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER. FURTHER EAST IN THE HILL CITY AREA UPPER 80S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE OBSCURE AS FAR AS
FINDING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO REALLY KEY IN ON TO DETERMINE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF STORM ACTIVITY DUE TO MORE DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE AREA.  AS WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIFT OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
WHILE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT MOVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  EAST OF THE FRONT
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS AND
CAPE PROFILES IN THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLY HALF DOLLAR SIZE OR SMALLER. DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORM
COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT EXTENSIVE EAST OF THE RETREATING FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT...NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA...SHOULD START TO MOVE BACK SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  LIFT INCREASES OVER THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST SO BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
TRIGGER FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ABOVE IT. AS
A RESULT HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASES TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE REMAIN UNCHANGED...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION MEAN STORM MOTION
WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE AXIS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY MOVE
SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. DIFFICULT TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE PRECIP.
FORECAST DUE TO A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LIFT OVER THE AREA. AM
THINKING THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WITH SOME LINGERING RAINFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH DURING
THE NIGHT. DUE TO TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES NOT BEING AS STEEP AS
THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A
CONCERN.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION ON SATURDAY THAT PUSHES EASTWARD
OVER THE PLAINS STATES AS THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVES
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BEGINS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES.  WITH THE UPPER FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY
WITH THE JET SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT
TO CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SWEEPING THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY AND MOVING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SAG FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
TO INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

KGLD...MAY SEE A ONE OR SO HOUR PERIOD OF NEAR MVFR CIGS FROM
18Z-19Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS. GENERAL THINKING IS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE AROUND/APPROACH THE TERMINAL BY 23Z WITH -TSRA
FROM 02Z-08Z. AFTER 08Z WILL KEEP SOME VCTS TIL 12Z THEN SOME VCSH
THROUGH 17Z BEFORE PRECIP IS EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. COULD
VERY WELL SEE MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THUNDERSTORMS AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXTENT) LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO CREATE MVFR CIGS WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE. HAVE LOWERED CIGS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

KMCK...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST 10KTS OR LESS. AM THINKING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEAR THE TERMINAL BY 02Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z...BEST
CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL FROM 05Z-14Z. IN THIS TIME FRAME
CIGS/VIS MAY BE REDUCED TO MVFR CATEGORY IN HEAVY RAIN/FOG. AFTER
14Z SHOWERS EXPECTED NEAR THE TERMINAL AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
WIND ALONG WITH POSSIBLE NEAR SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
PRODUCE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ001-013.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...99



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