Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 190717
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
117 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADD IN TREND FOR LAST COUPLE HOURS OF
OBSERVATIONS. STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING TO MEANDER SLOWLY NORTH
AND EAST THRU THE CWA KEEPING FOG AT BAY TO MOSTLY PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...WITH MAINLY SSW FLOW BEHIND FRONT.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE H5 RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THIS
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY HAVING
LARGE IMPACTS ON AVIATION SERVICES AROUND MCCOOK. LOOKS LIKE
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANY
BREAKS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH CLOUDS EXPANDING RIGHT
AFTER SUNSET. BY 06Z...ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THIS AREA CAUSING CLOUDS AND ANY
LINGERING FOG TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS HAVE NOT BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THERE WILL BE A FEW STORMS
WITH THE FRONT...AS WELL AS ANYTHING THAT MIGRATES OUT OF THE
NEBRASKA HANDLE FROM THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR IT WITH PEAK HEATING. AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 WILL BE FAVORED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST
FOR THOSE AREAS...SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.
FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL
RESIDE WEST OF A WRAY TO LEOTI LINE. WHILE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE
IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING UP
THE RIDGE IN CENTRAL COLORADO WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW STORMS
OVER THE COLORADO PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED STORMS WITH
PEAK HEATING FURTHER EAST IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR TO LIFT CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. FOG CURRENTLY
OVER KMCK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN IMPROVE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME
VARIABILITY IN THE VIS TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FOG BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTH WHILE THE WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE SITE. MEANWHILE CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KGLD. DURING THE DAY WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY FOR BOTH SITES THEN BECOME LIGHT BY THE EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL



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