Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 222059
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES WITH DEVELOPMENT
ALREADY UNDERWAY. STORMS SHOULD AFFECT KGLD FIRST. MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES BEFORE
ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 06Z. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG OR STRATUS AFTER
THE STORMS AT THIS TIME SINCE WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO SCOUR THE
MOISTURE OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER



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