Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
948 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

Issued at 628 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

A few locations have already dropped to near the low temperature
forecast. So adjusted the mins down a few degrees.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

The storm system that brought blizzard conditions to the central
high plains region yesterday through this morning is spinning out
across the central plains states this afternoon.  Mostly clear skies
and an extensive snowpack will be left behind tonight through
Tuesday.  Gusty northwest winds are expected to become light
overnight.  So with light winds, clear skies, and fresh snow, have
tended to go towards the lower side of guidance and temperatures a
couple of degrees lower overnight tonight than what was produced by
the CONSShort guidance. Have also lowered the high temperatures
expected on Tuesday over much of the area. Across the far southern
portion of the forecast area where snow amounts are lower with a
degree of melting that has taken place today under sunny skies,
expect temperatures near or even slightly warmer than guidance
across that portion of the forecast area. However, the challenge
will be balancing the less significant snow cover across the south
and the full sun during the day with the northwest fetch of near
surface winds that will be blowing across the snowpack and likely
bringing temperatures down a few degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1250 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

For the extended period Tuesday night through next Monday dry
weather is forecast. Upper level ridging spreads over the area by
mid week ahead of an approaching trough. This trough is forecast to
move across the area Friday with some weak ridging returning over
the weekend.

Forecast challenge the next several days will be impact(s) of the
snow cover across the area on temperatures. Coolest high
temperatures through Thursday should be along and north of the
interstate where deepest snow cover exists. By late in the week
through the weekend cooler air moves over the entire area. For next
Monday warmer air moves in from the southwest.

I will mention the NAM model snow depth field for today shows up to
3 inches of snow it thinks is over the area along and north of the
interstate. We have reports of amounts up to three times that (9
inches) so its 2m temperature forecast is likely on the warm side
the next few days. Will see what the 18z run has and hope it will be
closer to what we`ve observed.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 945 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. For Kgld, west
winds near 12 knots are expected until late tomorrow morning. At
18z those winds will shift to the northwest and increase to near
14 knots with gusts to near 21 knots. Late in afternoon those will
decrease to near 6 knots and then around 03z shift to the west at
the same speed.

For Kmck, through 18z on Tuesday west winds of near 8 knots are
expected. At 18z those winds will shift to the northwest and
increase to near 11 knots. Near 01z those winds will shift to the
west at near 6 knots.




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