Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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585
FXUS63 KGLD 212336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS LOW
LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS
RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING RAINFALL. CURRENTLY...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIP EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL COLORADO DOWN TOWARDS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...ALL MOVING NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST OF PRECIP
BEGINNING BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT FROM THE SW DOES LOOK GOD AT
THIS TIME BUT MAY ADJUST TIMING OF PRECIP ENTRY INTO THE CWA IF IT
LOOKS TOO SLOW BY NEXT ESTF. TEMPS TRENDS LOOKS GOOD AS WELL WITH
ONLY SOME TWEAKS FROM LATEST OBS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN UP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS
CURRENTLY LIFTING ENE ACROSS NEW MEXICO. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DECENT BAND OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. TIMING SHOULD BE STARTING LATE EVENING ACROSS
COLORADO AND WESTERN KS COUNTIES...ULTIMATELY REACHING THE NORTON
AND MCCOOK AREAS LATER TONIGHT BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXPECTING A
GENERAL .25 TO .50 IN OF MOISTURE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDER OVERNIGHT WITH INSTABILITY DEFINITELY
LACKING. PRECIP WILL END FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY...PRETTY
MUCH OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A BAND OF INSTABILITY SETTING UP ALONG THE CO-KS BORDER BY
MID AFTERNOON. A COMBINATION OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
IMPULSES ALOFT WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME OUT RIGHT NOW WILL HELP
TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST POTENTIAL IN TERMS OF
LOCATION LOOKS TO BE IN NE COLORADO...FAR NW KANSAS INTO SW
NEBRASKA...PERHAPS NORTHWEST OF A BURLINGTON COLORADO TO MCCOOK
NEBRASKA LINE OR THEREABOUTS. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON IN NE COLORADO IN BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS. SURFACE CAPE DIMINISHES QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET BUT
MEAGER ELEVATED CAPE WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG KS-NE BORDER AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACTS IF TROUGH OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA AND HOW
IT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE PLAINS. SREF DATA FROM 09Z CYCLES
INDICATES 2 DISTINCT CAMPS IN HANDLING TROUGH...WITH MEMBERS
FAIRLY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN A MORE PROGRESSIVE/NORTHERLY SOLUTION
AND A SLOWER MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. GIVEN THIS SPLIT...VERY
DIFFICULT TO PICK ONE OVER THE OTHER SO THINK TENDING TO A
CONSENSUS/MEAN OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.
THAT BEING SAID...GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL AS POSSIBILITY OF OF WIDESPREAD FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING. THINK STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL MAINTAIN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE INCREASING MIXING RATIOS IN THE LOWEST 0.5 KM
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATES AROUND BASE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. DETAILS VARY GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND RESULTING SFC REFLECTION WITH GENERAL IDEA OF
STRONG DRYLINE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO AND LIFTING
NORTH...AND A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR I-70. GIVEN THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE AS
STORMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN AREA
OF ADVANCE OF DRYLINE WHICH COULD GREATLY DIMINISH
TEMPS/INSTABILITY IS ALSO FAIRLY HIGH SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A
SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE WEST CLOSER TO
H5 LOW CENTER AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE EAST.

IN THE EXTENDED (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS QUICKLY MOVE
OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER WEST
COAST AND WHILE SOME ACTIVE WX IS POSSIBLE...HARD TO GET ANY HIGH
CONFIDENCE DETAILS AT THIS POINT. FOR THE TIME BEING...THINK MEAN
FORECAST THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN LARGE SCALE
PATTERN INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS TO START WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CONDITIONS BY 05Z-07Z FRIDAY AS CEILINGS DROP TO BKN-OVC025.
BY 08Z MVFR/IFR/LIFR MIX AS RAIN AND FOG DEVELOP OVER AREA.
VISIBILITY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 2-5SM WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM
OVC015 DOWN TO OVC003-006. WINDS STAYING FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5-15KTS THRU 08Z FRI...THEN 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JN



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