Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 202352
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE LIGHT TO BREEZY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  OVERNIGHT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL
POOL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA...CAUSING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP.  THE FOG/STRATUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOCATIONS IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO
HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO A MILE OR LESS AROUND SUNRISE.

TUESDAY MORNING THE FOG/STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST SUNRISE THEN
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.  HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE.  DURING THE AFTERNOON 850MB WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES
EASTWARD. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY WINDS
TO MIX TO THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CENTER ON STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL DRIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SREF ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...SO LATEST RUNS WHICH
SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF OF PRECIP THREAT. WHILE THIS DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT...NOT READY TO GREATLY LOWER POPS AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH A GENERAL SCALING BACK APPEARS WARRANTED. OTHERWISE QUIET
AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE H5
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CWA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA...BUT VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH KEEPS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE OMA/MKC AREAS WILL SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WITH S-SE WINDS INCREASING TO
10-20 KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE KGLD SITE LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING AT KGLD BY AROUND 12Z. STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FOG/IFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DLF



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