Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 202050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
250 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Initial forecast concerns are possible isolated thunderstorms this
evening.  The second short term forecast concern focuses on the sky
cover expected during peak eclipse viewing times on Monday.

With dewpoints in the lower 60s and temperatures approaching the
century mark with southerly low level flow ahead of a surface trough
and a CU field already developing over portions of south central
Kansas, expect to see a few thunderstorms to develop and move
through the far eastern portions of the forecast area this evening.
There is also a possibility of seeing an isolated storm move off the
higher terrain in Colorado and across the plains of northeastern and
across the Nebraska/Kansas border region as convective inhibition is
eroded late this afternoon. That amounts to a brief window of
opportunity before sunset, so still feel the better chance of seeing
a thunderstorm will be over the northeastern and far eastern
sections of the forecast area this evening with any storms expected
to dissipate rapidly after 06Z.

SREF is showing low clouds and fog possible over central and
southern Nebraska, but isn`t producing any low clouds over Kansas or
Colorado overnight.  NAM is also not showing any early morning near
surface RH values greater than about 60 percent, which should
indicate the lack of any low clouds or fog. However, model cross
sections at various locations across the forecast area are showing
the possibility for significant mid to high cloudiness from late
morning through mid-day and into the afternoon. Even though
conditions may not be ideal, some of the high cloudiness may not be
completely opaque and may be translucent enough to adequately view
the partial eclipse expected across our forecast area on Monday.
From mid-day through the afternoon, expect cloudiness to increase as
thunderstorms develop over portions of northeast Colorado and
southwest Kansas and move northeast across sections of the forecast
area during the afternoon and evening as a short wave trough lifts
out across the Central High Plains Region ahead of a surface low
that migrates across eastern Colorado and southwest Kansas Monday

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

The start of the extended period on Monday night will see chances
for storms across the Tri-State region. This is due to northwest
upper level flow being present over the region, a 700 mb shortwave
and moisture being transported up from the desert southwest. CAPEs
are favorable but bulk shear is weak, so severe storms are possible
but may not be organized.

Tuesday through Thursday morning will bring dry conditions to the
region. This is due to a ridge moving over the CWA. Come Thursday
evening, there will be a late afternoon/evening trough starting to
move into the region. This will possibly bring precipitation to
areas along and west of the Colorado/Kansas border.

Friday through Sunday will bring periods of precipitation to the
area. Especially Friday and Saturday as a trough swings over the
CWA, bringing northwest upper level flow. Sunday appears to be dry
as of now.

Temperatures during the period will primarily stay in the 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

VFR conditions expected at MCK and GLD through the TAF period.
Although there could be isolated thunderstorms across the region
this evening, the probability is very low of any discrete storm
moving across the TAF sites. Have mentioned a VCTS at MCK between
02-04Z to account for it, otherwise only mid to high clouds




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