Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 050807
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...MUCH OF THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY SITTING UNDER A BLANKET OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS SURFACE
TROUGH SITS OVER THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. WITH TROUGH PLACED IN
CURRENT LOCALE VERSUS PLACEMENT YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...THE
REGION IS THE WARM SECTOR SIDE WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE 70S...AND
UP TO THE LOWER 80S IN SPOTS.

LITTLE MOVEMENT FURTHER EAST OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS SUNRISE IS GOING
TO LIMIT ANY DOWNTREND IN TEMPS...AND THUS WILL SET THE ENTIRE AREA
UP YET ANOTHER HOT DAY. MODELS DO KEEP CLOUD COVER THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY TODAY...BUT HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE 95-100 DEGREE
RANGE NONETHELESS.

THE BROAD H5 RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS EASTWARD THRU THE UPPER ROCKIES/PLAINS REGION. SO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ON INTO NEXT MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER SEEING
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY MODELS STILL IN CONSENSUS FOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH...TO DROP SOUTH
SLOWLY THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SETTLING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY MONDAY. LIMITED MODEL QPF
WITH THE FROPA DUE TO MOST DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...SO
PLAN TO CONTINUE PREVIOUS TRENDS OF KEEPING MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW/RW. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE RIDGE COMING SOUTH BEHIND FROPA WILL GIVE THE TRI STATE
REGION A BREAK FROM THE CURRENT HOT TREND WE HAVE BEEN SEEING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WEST
TO THE LOW 60S EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 80S.
EARLY HIGHS NEAR 90F POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BEFORE FROPA OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAYT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE PLUME BISECTING THE AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z SUNDAY STEADILY MOVES
EAST/NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY BRINGING A DECREASING TREND FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIP CHANCES NEARLY
NIL AS DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPTION BEING THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA NEAR FLAGLER BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY
DOUBT ANYTHING CAN GET GOING.

LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60
WEST...LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY LOOK
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW
90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...HOTTEST IN THE HILL CITY AND NORTON AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S WEST TO LOW 60S EAST.

MONDAY...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY INCREASES QUITE A BIT GENERALLY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS/EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOMEWHAT FAVORING
CURRENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SO
ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
EXPECTING A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST...PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FROM
MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID
50S TO LOW/MID 60S.

TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING FURTHER COOLING TO THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60.

WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE MIDWEST ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH SFC WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
SIMILAR OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS WARMER COMPARED TO
TUESDAY SUPPORTING AT LEAST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AM EXPECTING CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT A BIT MILDER COMPARED TO TUESDAY NIGHTS GIVEN THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WIND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE WITH BROAD
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD. SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CURRENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT
AFFECT EITHER SITE WITH KMCK HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. SOME
GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS WILL END BY 09Z TO 10Z. THESE SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE 15Z TO 17Z TIME FRAME.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS WILL BE FURTHER EAST THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS WITH ONLY A MODEL OR TWO SHOWING THIS AND THE MODELS HAVE
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL. SO AT THIS TIME MADE
VCTS OR TSRA MENTION IN THE TAFS. THESE CAN BE REFINED THE CLOSER
WE GET TO THAT TIME PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.