Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281214
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
HAS PROMPTED AN EARLY INCREASE IN POPS TO THESE AREAS. IS SHOWING
UP MORE STEADILY A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE THESE CHANGES...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 3-6SM IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC010 UP TO OVC045. WINDS SSW10-20KTS
BECOMING VARIABLE BY 03Z-06Z SUNDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN


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