Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 250443
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1043 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Made adjustments to PoP/Wx to account for current trends on
radar/satellite/lighting data. Custer of showers/thunderstorms
over Yuma county developed along elevated CAPE axis near elevated
baroclinic zone. Coverage is still uncertain across most of the
CWA, however based on current trends match HRRR/RAP and these
models show isolated to widely scattered activity through the
night. I kept slight chance mention most places, and chance at
and downstream of where current activity is.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...persistent partly sunny
skies remain over the area with a SSE surface wind and temps ranging
nicely...mainly in the 70s...despite cloud cover. A moisture axis
allowing the low/mid level cloudiness...is sourcing from the eastern
Rockies and will persist thru the rest of the afternoon hrs...
resulting from surface ridging east and a building trough in the
southern Rockies.

A few isolated showers will move thru the northern zones this
afternoon as well with little impact to the area.

Going into tonight...looking for cloud cover to wane for central and
eastern zones...with mostly cloudy conditions for western zones due
to proximity to low/mid level moisture axis over Colorado.

For Sunday...similar scenario for the region as today. Surface ridge
to our north and east will shift further east thru the day allowing
inverted surface trough to push further into the Rockies. The
moisture axis between the two remains mostly over eastern Colorado
thru the day...with some bleed over into western Kansas thru the
day. 500/700 mb winds remain out of the WNW during this time...
aiding in moisture shift into the Plains region.

Models do hint at some weak instability over eastern Colorado...with
the possibility of shifting east. Some rw/trw possible but best
chances look for the western CWA to see precip...especially for
eastern Colorado.

For temps...cool airmass influenced from the surface
ridge...clearing over the area for many locales tonight will afford
the region overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s into the lower
50s. Daytime highs Sunday will reach into the mid and upper 70s but
will depend on extent/thickness of clouds for the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

H5 trough situated over southern Ontario will push off to the east
on Tuesday with the western Ridge over southern Arizona and New
Mexico beginning to break down simultaneously. The pattern will
become increasingly zonal as we head into Wednesday and Thursday.
This will be short-lived as another H5 trough will take shape
across the upper Mississippi Valley region as we head into Friday
with a weak cold front to follow. Northwest flow will develop
during this time as another ridge builds into the southwestern
states. Global models disagree with regards to the strength/timing
of both features but are in loose agreement with the general
pattern.

Embedded shortwaves will develop each afternoon Monday through
Thursday and travel with the flow pattern. Consequently,
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon with a favorable
severe thunderstorm environment developing Tuesday through
Thursday.

Severe indices each day as of the latest guidance:
Tuesday (CAPE 1500-2500 and 0-6Km shear 40-50 knots)
Wednesday (CAPE 1700- 3000 J/Kg and 0-6km shear 45-55 knots)
Thursday (CAPE 2000-3500 J/Kg and 0-6Km shear 55-65 knots)

The greatest instability will be in the eastern and northeastern
portions of the CWA. Forcing will be highest on Tuesday; however,
if guidance remains consistent, the environment on Wednesday and
Thursday will be supportive of supercells as well.

A weak cold front will push across the region on Friday, reducing
instability a bit but still allowing at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms during the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK terminals. A series of weak upper level disturbances will
bring showers and maybe a few thunderstorms to the region. Light
showers near KMCK should end early in the TAF period and VCSH was
limited to this TAF. Isolated showers or virga may redevelop
tonight and move near both terminals, confidence is low and
mention was left out. Better coverage is expected Sunday when
thunderstorms may also be possible, however coverage is still too
limited to include in TAFs.

Surface high pressure is keeping prevailing winds below 10kt, and
this will continue through Sunday morning. High pressure begins
to slide east by the afternoon and winds may increase to 10-14kt
range with occasional gusts in the afternoon (stronger winds at
KGLD).


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR



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