Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 202055
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE LIGHT TO BREEZY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  OVERNIGHT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL
POOL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA...CAUSING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP.  THE FOG/STRATUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOCATIONS IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO
HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO A MILE OR LESS AROUND SUNRISE.

TUESDAY MORNING THE FOG/STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST SUNRISE THEN
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.  HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE.  DURING THE AFTERNOON 850MB WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES
EASTWARD. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY WINDS
TO MIX TO THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CENTER ON STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL DRIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SREF ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...SO LATEST RUNS WHICH
SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF OF PRECIP THREAT. WHILE THIS DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT...NOT READY TO GREATLY LOWER POPS AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH A GENERAL SCALING BACK APPEARS WARRANTED. OTHERWISE QUIET
AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE H5
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CWA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA...BUT VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH KEEPS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION FAIRLY LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE FOR
THE TAFS WILL BE THE ONSET OF FOG/STRATUS FOR KGLD LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FOG/STRATUS
WILL MOVE EAST FROM COLORADO OVER THE SITE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING BUT THE STRATUS WILL LINGER UNTIL
ALMOST 18Z. KMCK MAY HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING BUT
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE SITE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL



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