Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 221945
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
145 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

BUSY FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF WIND...FIRE
WEATHER...AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WHICH PROVIDED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
TRI STATE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATED
SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO...WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN COLORADO AS OF
19Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE REGION AND ADVECTING TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND CREATE A CONFLUENCE ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
IT WILL BE ALONG THIS LINE THAT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A MODIFIED KDNR SOUNDING SHOWS
SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MODEL DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 1000 J/KG
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS TONIGHT WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT
DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP TO NEAR THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
FOR FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT WIND
SPEEDS AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES WOULD BE PRESENT IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS AT THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...DID NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

WITH STRONG 50 KT JET AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND 35 TO 40 KTS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WITH LCL HEIGHTS LOOKING TO BE UPWARDS OF 5000 FT...NOT
CURRENTLY THINKING TORNADOES WILL BE A PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH MIXED
LAYER HELICITY LOOKS FAVORABLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. GFS/ECMWF 850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C-22C WOULD SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BUT WITH
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FULL MIXING
POTENTIAL MAY BE IMPACTED THUS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WEST COAST NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES DURING THE DAY THEN MOVES OVER THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO GET DETAILED AS SFC
FEATURES...INSTABILITY AND LIFTING MECHANISMS NOT HANDLED WELL BY
ECMWF/GFS THUS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALSO IN QUESTION GIVEN LACK OF AGREEMENT IN FRONTAL
POSITION SO WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW 60S NORTH TO NEAR
MID 70S SOUTH FOR HIGHS AND LOW 40S WEST...UPPER 40S EAST FOR LOWS.
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...CLOSED LOW WITHIN NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AREA DURING THE DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT. 850 TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 5C
NORTH TO 15C SOUTH RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FORECAST FOR HIGHS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT 850 TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST). WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING WITH A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO VERY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY
DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT. GENERAL IDEA AT 500MB IS FOR THE CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER CHILLY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 1C EAST TO NEAR 10C WEST. WONT MAKE CHANGES
TO EXTENDED PROCEDURE FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 50S HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WITH LOWS INT HE MID TO
UPPER 20S. MAY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE COLDER
AIR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOWER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...AFFECTING BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER STORMS SHOULD STAY WITHIN THE VICINITY AND NOT
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES. OTHER THAN STRONG WIND
SPEEDS...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
     080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MK






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