Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 122023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
123 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

Through Tonight: The MSLP gradient will begin to tighten this
evening/tonight as the next shortwave in NW flow aloft digs SSE
from Alberta/Saskatchewan into the Dakotas. Expect a light W/WNW
breeze to shift to the NW at 15-20 knots in the 06-09Z time-frame.
With decreased radiational cooling assoc/w increasing wind,
expect warmer lows than in previous nights, ranging from the upper
20s to mid 30s.

Wednesday: Low-level flow will strengthen as the MSLP gradient
tightens on the western periphery of the aforementioned shortwave
/attendant sfc low/ as it digs SE from the Dakotas into the
central/northern MS river valley. Expect winds to abruptly
increase to 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph AOA 16Z and persist for
a few hours before weakening in concert with the MSLP gradient as
the shortwave /attendant sfc low/ progress toward the OH valley.
With CAA in the morning, expect cooler highs in the mid/upper 50s.
Despite gusty winds, minimum RHs are expected to remain AOA 20%
in most locations. Though an elevated risk for adverse fire
behavior will no doubt be present, at this time it does not appear
that RFW criteria will be met.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

No real changes in the extended period from the last few write ups.
Dry condition and above normal temperatures will continue into next
week with a few breezy days included. Even though the models are
showing a couple of upper level troughs, with their associated
surface fronts, moving across the region over the weekend; the
environment is too dry to support any significant impact other than
an increase in cloud cover.

Afternoon high temperatures will maintain in the upper 50s to lower
60s throughout the period with the exception of Sunday, which looks


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1010 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

VFR conditions will once again rule through the TAF period. Expect
light W to WNW winds at ~10 knots this afternoon through tonight,
however, winds will shift to the NNW (320-340 degrees) and
abruptly increase to 25G35KT at the end of the TAF period (15-18Z
Wed) as the MSLP gradient tightens/low-level flow strengthens on
the western periphery of a shortwave /attendant sfc low/ digging
SE from the Dakotas to the central/northern MS river valley.




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