Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 250807
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATES A PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
EXTENDING FROM LAS ANIMAS TO GOODLAND COINCIDING WITH AREA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S WITH DEEP MIXING AS PER 19Z OBSERVATION.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS HAD BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA
WHERE DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY NEED A RFW AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR HAS ADVANCED INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
CWA...APPEARS SOME MOISTURE POOLING IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR
CONVERGENT ZONE BETWEEN YUMA AND AKRON. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THIS AREA AND WITH CU FIELD
FORMING THINK THIS AREA WILL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRIOR TO
22Z. COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTION AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
CENTER OF CWA MAKES ME THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CWA...WITH STORMS MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS INTO AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN
11 AND 16Z. AS IT MOVES INTO UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS THINK IT WILL BE
VERY UNLIKELY FOR FRONT TO INITIATE ANY PRECIPITATION. FRONT WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A HIGH LIKELYHOOD FOR CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AS
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE...LIKELY SETTING UP AREA
FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING IN RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. GOING INTO NEXT MONDAY...BROAD H5/H7
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND A DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS LEAVES THE
FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR THE ENTIRE 4-DAY
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...BOUNDARY STAYS ALONG THE EAST COAST...DOWN
INTO THE GULF REGION AND UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY HAS CWA SEEING LOW PRESSURE FORM ALONG THE TAIL-END OF THE
FRONT IN EASTERN COLORADO. WITH LITTLE FORCING TO MOVE CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS...KEEPING HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY MIDWEEK...WEAK 700 MB
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODEL
TRACK WILL PUT HIGHEST POP CHANCES ALONG WESTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. BRIEF RESPITE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING OCCURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GOING
INTO THURSDAY...TROUGH TO THE EAST DOES RETROGRADE SOME...HINTING
THAT CUTOFF LOW MAY FORM. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL THEN PINWHEEL
SOUTH ON BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR 20-30 POP POTENTIAL
FOR RW/TRW THURSDAY...DROPPING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN RETURNING
FOR FRIDAY. WITH REGION SEEING BROAD NW THROUGH THE EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME...COMBINED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH
AND CLOUD COVER FROM EXPECTED CONVECTION...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO RANGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGHS(LOW TO MID
80S)/LOWS(LOW TO MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTH NORTHWEST AFTER 14Z AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OFF THE ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SOME STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND GLD DURING THAT TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE AND
PROBABILITY ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THEY WERE NOT PUT IN AS A
PREVAILING CONDITION.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART






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