Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
439 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 215 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

The primary short term concern are the expected near critical to
critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon.

An upper trough sweeps quickly across the high plains today with
short wave ridging in place across the region on Monday and
southwest flow persisting from Monday night through Tuesday night
ahead of the next upper trough moving eastward through the western
U.S. A weak surface trough moves across the southern plains today
with a stronger lee trough deepening in the lee of the Rockies
over eastern Colorado on Monday morning in response to the
transition to the southwest flow aloft across the Rockies. This
surface trough consolidates into a closed low that lifts out
across the forecast area Monday night with high pressure remaining
mostly over the northern sections of the forecast area Tuesday and
Tuesday night as another surface low develops and deepens over the
panhandle region ahead of the upper trough.

With the deepening lee trough on Monday, south to southwest
surface flow is expected to increase with gusty winds and warm air
advection helping highs to rise into the 50s and lower 60s Monday
afternoon. With the gusty winds, dry conditions, and warm
temperatures expected on Monday, critical to near critical fire
weather conditions are expected across mainly the southern portion
of the forecast area Monday afternoon. Will maintain the current
fire weather watch as it is across the favored areas with some
fine tuning expected during subsequent shifts.

The area of surface high pressure that noses into the area on
Tuesday will bring cooler temperatures mainly to the northern
sections of the forecast area where highs will be only in the
middle 40s while the southern sections are expected to be in the
lower 60s again. Dry conditions with RH values <20% could be seen
again Tuesday afternoon across the southern sections of the
forecast area, but with lower wind speeds expected, do not
anticipate another round of critical FWX conditions on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 150 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

Dry weather prevails during the extended period as temperatures
steadily increase.

On Wednesday, an upper trough weakens as it tracks from the desert
southwest to the southern Plains. Meanwhile at the surface, low
pressure advances southeast of the region. There is still some
uncertainty in the timing and track of this system due to model
differences. At this time, the forecast remains dry with
precipitation staying south and east of the area. Will continue to
monitor to see if PoPs are warranted.

The upper trough progresses towards the Great Lakes and upper
ridging builds in behind it on Thursday and Friday, bringing warm
and dry weather. Southwesterly flow develops aloft on the backside
of the ridge on Friday as the next upper trough digs into the
western CONUS. A tightening pressure gradient could lead to some
breezy winds Friday afternoon. This combined with dry conditions
raises fire weather concerns for the southwestern portion of the
region, where RH values range from 17 to 20 percent, during that

The area remains dry on Saturday as the upper trough over the
western CONUS shifts from the Pacific Northwest to the northern

A warming trend is expected during the extended period. Highs climb
from the 40s on Wednesday to the upper 40s/low 50s on Thursday,
followed by readings in the 50s and 60s on both Friday and Saturday.
Low temperatures are mainly in the 20s throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 341 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the TAF period.
Skies will clear by afternoon and remain clear overnight.
Southwest winds will turn west and increase around mid day today
before decreasing and turning to the south southwest overnight.
LLWS is expected at GLD until the surface inversion breaks down my
mid day today.


KS...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for KSZ004-015-016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for COZ253-254.



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