Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
159 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Issued at 650 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Updated forecast to remove Fire Weather Highlights


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Scattered mid and high level clouds are expected tonight.
Southeast to southwest winds this evening will become southwest
around midnight at 10 to 20 mph. After midnight winds are expected
to veer to the northwest at 5 to 10 mph as a cold front
approaches. Low temperatures generally in the low 20s west to low
30 east.

The cold front moves through Tuesday morning with north winds
increasing into the 15 to 25 mph range with some higher gusts
during the late morning through afternoon hours. High
temperatures look to range from the upper 30s northwest to low 50s
far east and south. Should also see some light rain showers
develop after the noon hour. Models not handling the qpf forecasts
very well which appears to be tied to whether or not a band of
moisture in the 850-500mb develops behind the front. Will continue
with a slight chance of light rain showers as the incoming 18z
nam is similar to the 12z run with little if any qpf.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 159 AM MST Tue
Feb 28 2017

The pattern for the extended period has westerly upper level flow
over the Central Rockies and Central High Plains along with a strong
surface high pressure center northeast of the Tri-State region. The
models are also showing a developing lee trough to our west. This
will set up dry conditions with well above normal temperatures
(Highs around 70) for this weekend.

After this weekend... a little less certain with the pattern as
there is a possibility of a cold front moving through the area
Sunday night. However... the mean at this time is still favoring
above normal temps (50s to near 60F).


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1026 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Conditions will remain VFR through the TAF period at GLD and MCK.
Winds will turn northwest between 09-11Z following the passage of
a cold front, and will turn north and become gusty by 18Z as the
pressure gradient increases in the wake of a deepening surface
low. There will be a chance of rain or GLD will see a chance of
rain or snow after 00Z, but will remain VFR.




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