Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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936
FXUS63 KGLD 201757
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1157 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Today-tonight...a stationary frontal boundary is expected to be in
our extreme southwest Nebraska counties into Yuma county Colorado
around noon with a subtle wind convergence area expected. This
boundary should remain nearly stationary through mid afternoon
before lifting slowly north by days end. Should be enough moisture
and low level forcing to produce isolated to perhaps scattered
showers and thunderstorms. 850mb temperatures did rather well
yesterday with high temperature forecast and will use again today.
Aim shooting for readings ranging from the low 90s across far
eastern Colorado to the mid 90s up to 102 across the Republican
river valley of southwest Nebraska to Norton and Graham counties of
Kansas.

Precipitation chances should come to an end during the evening. Will
have to closely monitor NAM/GFS boundary layer moisture behind the
cold front which by midnight is flirting with our Nebraska counties.
If these models are correct the stratus will slide south and extend
from near McCook to Goodland and Kit Carson Colorado by sunrise
Monday morning with some fog possible. Low temperatures in the low
60s to around 70.

Monday-Monday night...large area of moisture in the 850-500mb layer
moves into the area from the southwest during the morning hours
ahead of an upper trough which is forecast to move in from the
northwest during the afternoon...pushing the deeper moisture slowly
east. May have to contend with some stratus from roughly Kit Carson
Colorado to Goodland and McCook in the morning (thickest earlier in
the morning) which could impact eclipse viewing. Otherwise we should
see an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances during the
afternoon and night as the upper trough and moisture move through.
Post frontal stratus and fog possible per boundary layer humidity
and visibility forecasts toward sunrise Tuesday morning. Should see
afternoon temperatures in the low 80s to low 90s with lows in the
mid 50s to mid 60s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...dry weather expected. Outside of some
possible morning low clouds and fog rest of the day should be mostly
sunny with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures
in the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Wednesday-Thursday: Upper level ridging is the main weather feature
for this period. Expect mainly dry conditions with abundant
subsidence in place. Only exception may be Thursday evening and
overnight when a weak shortwave trough moves across the area. Will
have slight chance to chance PoPs for then. Temperatures will be
near normal for the period.

Friday-Saturday: Better model agreement for this period as the GFS
is more in line with the ECMWF and CMC drier solution. Still expect
a series of shortwaves to move across the area with NW to zonal flow
aloft. Moisture seems to be more limited compared to early model
runs last week. Best chance of rain and storms will come Saturday
afternoon and evening. Not expecting any severe weather at this
time. Temperatures should continue to be near normal for the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

VFR conditions expected at MCK and GLD through the TAF period.
Although there could be isolated thunderstorms across the region
this evening, the probability is very low of any discrete storm
moving across the TAF sites. Have mentioned a VCTS at MCK between
02-04Z to account for it, otherwise only mid to high clouds
expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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