Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 180947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
247 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 243 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

Forecast issues will be winds today followed by temperatures through
the period. Satellite showing an amplified flow from the Pacific
into the western Atlantic. The flow has become more amplified over
the last 24 hours, especially over North America. Strong cold front
has blasted through the area.

Models started out well at jet level. At mid levels...the models
were having a little trouble with the upper trough coming through.
They tended to have it too deep and slow. The Gfs, Canadian, and
Ecmwf looked to be doing the best. The Rap and Nam were starting out
well on the surface wind and pressure field. The Ukmet, Canadian,
and Gfs were doing a little better on the low level thermal field.

Today/tonight...Initial mid/upper level lift along with
precipitation looks to be south and east of the area by the
beginning of the day. Will watch the trends up until the last minute
to see if any lingering precipitation needs to be kept in. After the
precipitation ends a drier and subsident air mass moves into the

Gradient and mixing keeps breezy to windy conditions going through
the middle of the day with a slow decrease after that. Cooler air
mass in place but will be offset by plentiful sunshine. What the
blend gives me looks reasonable and have no good reason to change
it. Light winds, low dewpoints and no cloud cover expected tonight.
So cooled temperatures from what the blend would say especially for
the eastern portion of the area where the winds will be the lightest
through the night.

Sunday/Sunday night...Mid level ridge moves into the area with
decent west to northwest flow aloft. This bring plentiful sunshine
to the area with model showing light to moderate downslope surface
winds, especially in the western half of the area. With a dry air
mass in place should see a good response to the sun and downslope
winds. So raised maxes from what the blend gave me.

Cross mountain flow continues to increase during the night. As a
result downslope winds and warm air advection really begins to kick
in. At the very least will have steady if not slowly rising
temperatures through the night.

Monday/Monday night...Jet axis/left front quadrant look to be south
and west of the area through the period but does start getting
pretty close late in the night. Still looks like will have plentiful
sunshine with moderate to strong downslope winds and warm air
advection continuing. Models seem to be playing catch up on this. So
raised the maxes from what the blend gave me toward the warmer

A large area of mid level moisture moves across during the night.
There will be a deep dry layer at the bottom so virga at this time
looks to be the most likely outcome with the mid and upper level
lift nearby.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

Expect dry conditions during the extended period as a upper level
ridge amplify over the Rockies. On Tuesday, a shortwave trough
looks to move over the ridge and across the High Plains; however,
there will not be enough moisture to work with so no precipitation
is expected. Temperatures, on the other hand, will cool down
slightly behind this trough. For the rest of the week, the ridge
continues to amplify and any shortwaves will be shunted eastward.
This will continue to produce dry conditions along with above
normal high Temperatures, lower to middle 60s, for the
Thanksgiving holiday.

The next impact to the local area looks to be next Saturday as the
models show a major front passing through the High Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1037 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Band of rainfall is
slowly marching east, and will continue to do so through the rest
of the night. Have yet to see any MVFR visibility from the
rainfall. Am skeptical any snow will actually form due to the
precipitation ending by the time the temperature is cold enough to
support snowfall. The lowering cloud deck will be what impacts
flight conditions tonight. Don`t have too high a confidence when
the specific time for category change will be so have tempo groups
when the change will be most likely to occur. The strongest wind
gusts will be between now and 12z, mainly for KGLD.




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