Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 310434
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO ADJUST WINDS AND TEMPS BASED OFF TREND
OF LAST COUPLE HOURS OF OBS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 10 MPH OR
LESS AND HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
NICELY AFTER SUNSET WITH AREA SEEING 40S TO THE WEST UP TO THE
L50S TO THE EAST. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES STILL EXPECTED BEFORE
ARRIVAL OF STRATUS DECK BY TOMORROW MORNING...STILL LOOKING FOR
AREAS OBS TO SHOW DROP TOWARDS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE ROCKIES.

H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
SENSIBLE WX CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE KS AND
COLORADO BORDER AND HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY ACCORDINGLY. WHILE AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER AIR BACKING INTO THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MORNING...UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATED A FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE
RATE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW
FREEZING...POTENTIALLY BACK DOWN TO HARD FREEZE IN A FEW SPOTS
AROUND MCK AND HLC SHOULD DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

AS SFC HIGH RETREATS ON FRIDAY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE INCREASING WINDS...COMBINED WITH A
COLD AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL CREATE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD SUNSET. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY PLANNED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DRESS A BIT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD INVOLVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
MAY ALLOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AIR MAY
EDGE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS WOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. MORE
CONFIDENT IN A POSSIBLE STRATUS EVENT THAN FOG. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENCE WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SATURDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES SO NUDGED SATURDAY
HIGHS DOWN. WITH A STRONG MORNING INVERSION AND LESS MIXING
EXPECTED...COOL WAS THE WAY TO GO.

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING
AND EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST GUIDANCE
TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY SOLUTION AND WITH A STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALOFT...THINK THE DRY SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS STILL
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT NOW
CONFINE THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...LIGHT
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT SHALL MOVE
THROUGH...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. WITH A LARGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARMER
WEATHER IS AGAIN ASSURED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REAPPEAR BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MIX OF VFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. KGLD/KMCK WILL SEE SKC THRU 09Z-10Z...THEN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BUILDS IN...REMAINING THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3SM IN FOG. BY 19Z-20Z
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCT120-150. WINDS VARIABLE THRU MID MORNING
BECM SSE 10-20KTS...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY BY 00Z SAT 5-15KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN



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