Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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709
FXUS63 KGLD 251905
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
105 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Main forecast issues will be how long to keep the rain chances going
and temperatures, especially the lows. Satellite showing an amplified
and blocky flow from the Pacific into the western Atlantic. Analysis
and satellite showing the amount of moisture the column has decreased
from yesterday. Slow moving cold front looks like it has finally
cleared the forecast area.

At jet level...models started out fine but were a little weak on
incoming southern jet. At mid levels...the Canadian and Gfs were
doing the best. Nam was doing well with the surface pattern.

Today/tonight...Right rear quadrant moves across the area during
the day. Last shortwave, a rather strong one, in this flow rotates
through during this time. A large cluster of showers and
thunderstorms is approaching the area. So will have very high pops
to start out the day and gradually decrease them from west to
east during the afternoon. With cold air advection, thick cloud
cover and ongoing rainfall, will cool todays maxes a little.

During the night the models redevelop or move this right rear
quadrant back to the northwest. Strong southern jet starts nosing
into the area during the last half of the night. At that time the
area is solidly in a coupled jet setup. However, the air mass is
becoming much drier by then. Will keep the gradually decreasing pops
but slow it up a little. With most of the area seeing no rainfall by
late in the night and some breaks in the cloud cover developing,
models are indicating that some fog could develop so inserted this
after midnight.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Coupled jet structure begins the day over
the area. By late in the afternoon the models consolidate the jet
with the jet axis over/near the southeast half of the area. By this
time the column has dried out considerably so at this time only
expect some lingering cloud cover. Blend high temperatures look
reasonable and left alone.

Jet axis/right rear quadrant remains over the southeast half of the
area through the night. Even though the column remains dry and do
not expect precipitation, this will keep some cloud cover around
which will be a good thing. Models are all indicating little to no
wind. So am expecting at this time these clouds to keep temperatures
near or slightly below what the blend gave me. If the cloud cover is
much less, temperatures in the upper 30s and maybe even mid 30s
could be possible.

Wednesday/Wednesday night...Models differ on the details but
essentially keep the jet axis over the area through the day with
them finally moving it to the east of the area during the night.
Some cloud cover should be around. Blend high temperatures again
look reasonable and again left alone.

Shortwave trough approaches after midnight. Some instability present
plus some models have some qpf. Model blend inserted some pops so
see no reason to make changes to this at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Tuesday night-Thursday...the upper level pattern features high
pressure over southeast Texas and low pressure over the southern tip
of California at the beginning of the period. Moisture in the 700-
500mb layer starts to move into the western 1/2 of the area late
Wednesday afternoon through the overnight hours as the upper low
lift`s northeast toward eastern Utah/western Colorado. This is
when are next chance of precipitation arrives. On Thursday
precipitation chances spread east across much of the rest of the
area within area of better 850-500mb moisture. Low temperatures
each night in the low to mid 40s. High temperatures Wednesday in
the low 60s to low 70s, mid 50s to low 70s Thursday...coolest
across the west.

Thursday night-Friday...precipitation chances continue as plentiful
moisture slowly spreads east ahead of upper low thats forecast to
lift into Wyoming/southern Montana. Forecast low temperatures in the
mid 40s to around 50 with highs in the low 60s to low 70s.

Friday night-Saturday...will have to continue with some
precipitation chances as 850-500mb moisture remains over the area.
Trend is for decreasing pops from west to east. Low temperatures in
the mid 40s to low 50s with highs in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday night-Monday...upper level flow shifts to southwesterly
ahead of a large upper trough centered over the northern plains.
Will have to keep some type of mention of precipitation through the
period from time to time otherwise we should see temperatures
generally in the 70s, a few 80s are possible Sunday. Low
temperatures in the mid 40s to low/mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 541 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

For KGLD... Terminal has been experiencing bouts of blowing heavy
drizzle that lowers the visibility to less than 2 miles
periodically during the pre-dawn hours. Expect this to continue
most of the morning. IFR conditions expected through the entire
period. A cluster of thunderstorms are moving into the region from
the south. Expect them to weaken before reaching the terminal so
did not include any mention of VCTS or TS in the TAF.

For KMCK... While reporting stations near KMCK have had IFR
conditions the majority of the pre-dawn hours, KMCK has stayed
MVFR. Expect KMCK to stay MVFR most of the period with brief
stints of IFR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...SME



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