Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
345 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017

Today-tonight...latest 00z models have changed their tune a bit
regarding timing of showers/thunderstorms today which has also
impacted various other parameters including temperature, dewpoint
and wind.

Latest thinking is for a weather disturbance (currently over
northern Nevada and Utah) to move off the Colorado front range and
into the northwest half of the forecast area by mid afternoon
spreading east late in the day. Area remains under left front quad
of 90kt upper jet with great upper divergence. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible with large hail and damaging winds the
primary threats. Precipitation looks to linger through the evening
and perhaps midnight before lifting northeast and out of the area.
850mb temperatures warm about 8F to 13F across the area supporting
highs in the upper 70s (north) to near 90 (south), this matches
pretty well with latest 2m temperatures and bias corrected grids so
have raised highs as a result. Low temperatures in the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

Friday-Friday night...another weather disturbance moves off the
Colorado front range and into the area from the west-northwest by
mid to late afternoon continuing east through the evening and
overnight hours. Once again great upper jet divergence with this
feature and it may suggest storms transitioning into an MCS.
Afternoon temperatures look to warm into the low to upper 70s
(northwest to southeast) with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Saturday-Saturday night...upper trough axis finally forecast to move
across the area during the day slowly moving east of the area during
the night. Will have a continued threat for showers and
thunderstorms through midnight before drier air aloft moves in from
the north. High temperatures will be much cooler with low 60s
(northwest) to low 70s (far east and south). Low temperatures in the
mid 40s to around 50.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 153 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017

There are chances for rain showers and storms over the Tri-State
region during the second half of the extended period. Sunday and
Monday, for the most part, will be a lull period as dry air will
take over the region.

Northwest upper level flow will continue to dominate over the
Central/High Plains through the period. So Tuesday and Wednesday
will have chances for precipitation due to shortwave troughs moving
over the region both days and frontal boundaries positioned near
the CWA. Instability and shear will be present as well, which
indicates that some severe storms may develop. With these days being
at the end of the period, it is hard to determine the exact impacts
and timing. Model guidance is showing similar ideas for these days
so the likelihood that precipitation will occur is higher at this
time. Will continue to monitor as the middle of next week

Temperatures during the period will stay consistent and hover in the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about 20z.
Winds begin the period from the southwest around 12kts but quickly
become northwest at similar speeds around 15z then northwest
around 10kts by 19z and north around 20z. From 21z-23z most recent
hrrr experimental and operational models showing convection
developing near/over the terminal with outflow winds around 45kts
and possibly large hail falling. Visibilities in the precipitation
could fall to a few miles for a brief period. Have added a prob30
group to account for this. After 02z precipitation should be away
from the area with winds from the north to northeast around 10kts.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about 21z.
Above mentioned convection is forecast to move across the terminal
in a north to south oriented line of storms in the 22z-24z
timeframe. Outflow winds are forecast to exceed 50kts from a model
or two with visibilities reduced to mvfr category...could be lower
if thunderstorms are producing downpours. Anyway, have highlighted
22z-24z timeframe for adverse weather. Convection threat continues
through about 06z then should be away from the area. Winds
through the period all over the place at speeds under 10kts.




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