Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 041911
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
WORK WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER
STORM THAT DEVELOPS. THE SET UP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR WITH A STAGNANT PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL DUE TO
A COLD FRONT THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS
STILL SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
MONDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA IT WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. IT WILL ALSO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGHS AREA EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
70S.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE CR_INIT SHOWS STABLE CONDITIONS WITH CLOSER
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... HOWEVER, SOME
MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
THIS COULD POSSIBLE PRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN COLORADO AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...024


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