Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
423 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 205 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are currently
mcloudy to cloudy as a veil of mid and high cloud works over the
area. Temperatures are ranging mainly in the 40s...but as clouds
part and winds become more light...temps are dropping into the mid
and upper 30s. Radar/obs are showing a few sprinkles passing north
of the CWA and should clear before 12z.

For today...with high pressure nosing southward into the Plains
region thru the day...CAA is expected to ensue giving the area near
normal high temperatures.

Going into tonight and on thru Thursday night...surface ridge slides
off to the east. This combined with amplifies H5/H7 ridging over the
west...will bring a return to above normal temps thru the remainder
of the period. With the upper level ridge axis cresting over the
region from Wednesday onward...the area will see highs top off in
the 60s Wednesday and around 70F Thursday. This is in comparison to
around 50F today. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the mid and
upper 20s...but increase to the upper 30s into the 40s for Wed/Thurs

With strong subsidence over the area thru the next 72 hours...the
CWA is to remain dry with no precip expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 203 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

Very stagnant large scale pattern is progged through the extended
with ridging entrenches over the western US through the weekend,
eventually transitioning eastward through early next week. A
shortwave trough is shown to rotate through the mean flow Friday
through the Northern Plains, and an cold front dropping south over
our CWA by Friday night. A substantially deep/dry air mass will
preclude any precip chances. There may be a period of gusty winds
behind this front Friday evening. An axis of strong WAA ahead of the
pre-frontal trough could also support near record highs, but
confidence isn`t there on timing (this could be south of our CWA by
the afternoon). Either way we should be very warm Friday.
Temperatures will tend to be above normal through early next week
and dry conditions should persist.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 423 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

For KGLD...VFR conditions with frontal passage thru the area.
Mainly BKN040-090 giving way to SCT250 by 00z Wednesday. Winds NW
20-30kts shifting to NNE by 14z this morning. By 21z N around
10kts becoming LGT/VAR by 00z Wed. By 05z wednesday...SW around

For KMCK...VFR conditions with frontal passage thru the area.
Mainly BKN050-070 giving way to SCT250 by 21z-00z. Winds N around
10kts increasing to 15-25kts by 15z. By 21z...N around 10kts
becoming LGT/VAR by 00z Wed. by 07z Wednesday...S around 10kts.




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