Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 291837
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1237 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: CUMULUS FIELD WEST OF AN ATWOOD TO GOVE LINE WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS HEATING CONTINUES TO
PUSH READINGS NEAR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS CAPE OVER 1500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN IN
THIS AREA. KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF
HWY 83 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THIS EVENING-WEDNESDAY: MAIN CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS NOW
OVER UT/CO/NM. PRECIP EMPHASIS NOW IS IN THE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME RATHER THAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING. OVERALL...THE
LOCATION OF THE BEST RAINFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE OVER OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN AREAS SO NO MAJOR CHANGE THERE.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TWO MAIN SHOTS OF PRECIP. THE FIRST
IMPULSE WILL LIFT OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO SE COLORADO...SW KANSAS
AND THE TX-OK PANHANDLE LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE LARGE CIRCULATION NOW OVER UTAH IS A LITTLE MORE OF A
WILD CARD IN THAT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE
WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOT AS CERTAIN. LATEST NAM/ECMWF IMPACT MORE
OF OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN CONTRAST WITH THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE ALMOST ENTIRELY IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COLORADO.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH 1.50" PROGGED
TONIGHT AND 1.25" WED AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MEAN 0-6 KM WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD MEANS THAT ANY AREA GETTING
DECENT SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS IT
STANDS NOW...THE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH IN OUR CWA THE BETTER THE
CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR NORTON...MCCOOK AND
HILL CITY WILL LIKELY SEE MINIMAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR FLOODING IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARD BUT
STILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER COLUMN
WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND PROFILE LOOKS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY IN THE
HIGH PLAINS AS COMPARED TO THE MOIST/SATURATED DEPICTIONS FOR MID
WEEK. WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING IT INTO AT LEAST THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE. WITH FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND A TREND TOWARD RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...CONVECTION COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
EVENING AND PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO COLORADO AS TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION DRIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT
INCREASE MARKEDLY BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEAMPLIFYING THE PATTERN
BY MONDAY AS COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THEREFORE
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

KGLD: BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD OVER NW KANSAS WILL GENERATE ISOLATED
SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z WITH BASES AROUND FL050. THE MAIN
WEATHER SYSTEM OVER COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BETWEEN
00Z-03Z WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM COLORADO. COVERAGE OF -TSRA WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS. VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING
WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR LATER TONIGHT IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND FOG
WHICH WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY AT 8-14 KTS DURING PERIOD.

KMCK: BAND OF WEAKENING CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY IMPACT TERMINAL WITH MID CLOUD DECK. VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS A
LARGER SCALE WEATHER SYSTEM SKIRTS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST. SOUTHEAST WINDS 12-18 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EAST AT
8-12 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...DLF






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