Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 071730
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT WILL
LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AS A SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATES AND
DEEPENS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE APPROACH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALOFT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100
DEGREES...WHILE HIGHS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 00Z AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CLIPS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
SURFACE LOW BEGINS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE FRONT. THE GREATEST
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY BE A FEW
STORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THAT MAY MOVE EAST OVER THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
GETS HUNG UP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND INSTABILITY INCREASES
WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PUSHING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THESE IMPULSES ARE CURRENTLY POORLY
DEFINED...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SPECIFIC AREA BEING THE FAVORED
LOCATION FOR STORMS IS LOW AND HAVE TRIED TO BROADBRUSH POPS AS
MUCH AS POSSIBLE AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN ELONGATED
RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY WITH WEST TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A NEW RIDGE APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WESTERN CONUS...EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY A NUMBER OF WEAK
FRONTS/SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY MOST DAYS...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY /MONDAY JUL 7TH/.

ON THURSDAY A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION...WHICH COMBINE WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MAY SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MOTIONS WOULD BE ON THE
SLOWER END OF THINGS...10 TO 15 KTS...BUT PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR STORMS WILL BE OVERCOMING THE VERY WARM
AND DRY LOW LEVELS...WITH A T-TD SPREAD APPROACHING 50 F. WHILE ABOVE
600MB MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...THE DRY
AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO OVERCOME...AND MAY DEVELOP INTO
AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF DRY MICROBURSTS...AND AT THE
VERY LEAST A FEW GUSTY STORMS. MODEL HODOGRAPHS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLULAR THUNDERSTORMS...AND CAPE
VALUES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS INDICATE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
UNLIKELY TO BE VERY STRONG.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AM CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DUE TO
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
VICINITY...MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO. THIS TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
BECOME A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON PULSE STORMS...BUT BELIEVE MOST OF
CONVECTION WILL BE TERRAIN BASED AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA AROUND
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS
BREEZY AND TOMORROWS /MONDAY THE 7TH/...THE PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
PRETTY GOOD. BEST LARGE-SCALE LIFT LOOKS TO BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SKINNY CAPE PROFILE AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL...LOW TO MID 90S MOST DAYS. THURS/FRI/SAT 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S C...INDICATIVE OF SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S.
ECMWF IS A BIT COOLER THAN GFS...AND GEM A BIT WARMER...BUT OVERALL
FEEL FORECAST TEMPS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S
RANGE. ON SUNDAY TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN MOST SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO KGLD AND KMCK
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH POSSIBLE MVFR NEAR STORMS. CLEARING
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING AT BOTH SITES
TOWARD SUNRISE DUE TO HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...FS






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