Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 212044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
244 PM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 111 PM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Upper ridge axis will cross the local area tonight resulting in
dry conditions. A few short term models showing isolated
thunderstorm development this afternoon in the deeply mixed hot
and dry air mass. There has been cu development in the last hour
but given lack of any kind of upper forcing and the only surface
boundary west of the area do not think any precipitation will
develop. Clouds will dissipate after sunset with loss of surface
heating but with winds forecast to stay breezy from the south
through the night temperatures will struggle to fall below the
lower to middle 60s. Upper ridge will move east on Monday with
southwesterly flow by the afternoon. This will open the door for
any shortwave trough climbing the ridge...with one identified in
the models moving into southeast Colorado. Timing would keep chances
for any associated precipitation until after 00z. Otherwise
temperatures will be similar to today with breezy to windy south
winds during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

The upper flow across the Central High Plains Region transitions
from west to southwest from late Monday through late Tuesday as a
series of short wave troughs moves into the southwest U.S. and
begins to lift out across the Rockies with the approach of a
stronger low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures remain warm through Tuesday with southerly near
surface flow ahead of a prefrontal trough deepening over eastern
Colorado. This surface trough moves through the forecast area on
Tuesday with a cold front to follow Tuesday evening. A few storms
are possible Monday evening ahead of the surface through as the
initial short wave trough lifts east of the Rockies.

The better chance of thunderstorms will come Tuesday night through
Wednesday as the cold front moves through the area and a stronger
upper trough approaches late Tuesday and eventually lifts across the
Central High Plains Region on Wednesday.  Temperatures on Wednesday
and Thursday will be 5-10 degrees cooler than average as a cooler
airmass with plenty of cloud cover moves into the region.  There is
a possibility of isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day from
Thursday through Sunday along with temperatures warming back up to
above average values as it appears the surface boundary lifts
back northward through the region as additional poorly defined
short wave troughs swing through the west and southwest U.S. and
lift out across the central Rockies and Central High Plains


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period.
Southerly surface winds will be gusty, especially in the
afternoon, with pressure gradient between return flow around a
departing high pressure system and trough of low pressure in
eastern Colorado.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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