Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 201135
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
535 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE EVIDENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 925MB HAS PRODUCED LOW
STRATUS.  UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH A MINOR SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL WYOMING THAT
WILL MOVE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA LATER TODAY.  AT THE SURFACE
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA UNDERNEATH
THE LOW STRATUS.  EXPECT THE STRATUS AND FOG TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING.

TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND
DEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE DRY LINE.  THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES HOW FAR EAST THE DRY LINE WILL
MOVE...VARYING FROM NEAR THE KS/CO LINE TO AS FAR EAST AS HILL
CITY.  WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS LEANING TOWARD THE
FURTHER EAST OPTION OF THE DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HILL CITY
SOUTHWEST TO TRIBUNE...WILL GO THIS DIRECTION WITH THE FORECAST.
INCLUDED A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE 700MB LIFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
STRONGEST SINCE SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3000J/KG AND CINH IS
ALMOST NIL.  HOWEVER THE 1KM MIXED LAYER CINH WAS IN EXCESS OF 50
J/KG ALONG THE DRY LINE SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STORMS WILL
EVEN DEVELOP DEPENDING ON WHERE THE PARCEL IS COMING FROM...BUT IF
ONE OR TWO DO IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER EASTERN NORTON OR GRAHAM.
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 25KTS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.  HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY.  MODELS HAVE
COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY AND ARE PUSHING THE DRY LINE FURTHER EAST.  THIS MAY PUT
THE HEAT ADVISORY IN JEOPARDY.  HOWEVER DID NOT REMOVE THE HEAT
ADVISORY YET IN CASE MODELS ARE MOVING THE DRY LINE EAST TOO FAST.

THIS EVENING THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH.  AS IT DOES SO...ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPS FROM ROUGHLY HILL
CITY TO TRIBUNE.  PARCELS BEING LIFTED FROM AROUND 775MB HAVE THE LOWEST
CINH TO OVERCOME...AROUND 30J/KG WITH CAPE AROUND 1200J/KG. WITH
0-6KM SHEAR OF 20-25KTS...A SHORT LIVED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.  IF ONE DOES DEVELOP HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT.  THESE ELEVATED STORMS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHEN THE ELEVATED CAPE BECOMES CAPPED.  MEANWHILE THE DRY LINE WILL
MOVE BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE DRY
LINE SITUATED NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER.  MIXED LAYER 1/.5KM CINH IS
60+J/KG WHILE SURFACE BASED CINH IS ALMOST NIL.  SINCE A STORM
DEVELOPING OVER THE DRY LINE WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS BEST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WILL KEEP MINIMAL CHANCES GOING FOR THE
AFTERNOON.  ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO MOVE EAST WHERE
MID LEVEL LIFT WILL INCREASE.  WHILE SURFACE BASED CAPE RANGES FROM
1500-2000J/KG...THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR DECLINES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TO 10 KTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST SO A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM SEEMS UNLIKELY.  HOWEVER DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUD BASES
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

MODELS HAVE COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM WHAT WAS
ADVERTISED YESTERDAY...BUT HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THE HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR VERIFYING DUE TO THE
DRY LINE BEING FURTHER WEST THAN TODAY.  GOVE COUNTY MAY REACH A
HEAT INDEX OF 103 BRIEFLY...SO IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE
ADVISORY.

HOT AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CHANCES OF PRECIP
ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE OVERALL IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE/UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
AS IT STRENGTHENS MID-WEEK THEN WEAKENS. THE UPPER HIGH ITSELF WILL
BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY THEN
MEANDER SOUTHWEST INTO NEW MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER. THE H5 RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS PERIOD...CENTERED ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEK THE
FLOW FLATTENS TO BECOME NEAR ZONAL AND EVEN SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY
BY SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY ON
TUESDAY ORIENTED IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FASHION ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. NOT CONFIDENT IN AN EXACT
PLACEMENT AT THIS POINT BUT GENERALLY THINKING IS THAT THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT /NORTHEAST/
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS AND SOME RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ALONG THE SAME PATTERN AS PREVIOUS
RUNS...GFS CONTINUES TO BE WARMER AND WETTER WHILE ECMWF NOT AS HOT
AND LESS AGGRESSIVE ABOUT PRECIP. GEM IS COOLER STILL AND GENERALLY
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO NOT BE WIDESPREAD DURING THE WORK WEEK DUE TO MODERATE TO
STRONG CAPPING IN PLACE EACH DAY. STORMS THAT DO FIRE WILL BE AN
ENVIRONMENT WHICH SUPPORTS VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...LESS THAN 5
KNOTS...AND THUS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN. WHILE
THIS PATTERN IS NOT ESPECIALLY MOIST...LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
EAST SUPPORTS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...TO THE POINT OF PWAT
VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS KMCK ON THE WEST EDGE OF A PLUME OF LOW STRATUS. THE
STRATUS HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
UNTIL RECENTLY WHEN IT HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. IF IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AT ITS PRESENT SPEED IT SHOULD BE THROUGH
KMCK AROUND 13Z.

OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE DIRECTION CHANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY TURN TO THE WEST THEN BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ003-004-015-016.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
     016.

CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ081.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JJM/JTL
AVIATION...JTL






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