Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 132103
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
203 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

Main issue once again will be fog/dense fog. Air mass near and
just upstream from the area remains unchanged/saturated. High
resolution models in good agreement about not only developing fog
but a large area of dense fog over the area. The agreement is so
good that confidence is above average that some portion of our
area will have dense fog.

Recent trends/biases/persistence along with a favorable setup to
have dense fog develop led to the issuance of a dense fog advisory
for the eastern two thirds of the area from 03z tonight to 16z on
Tuesday morning. Feel confident about this area. However some
trends that the evening shift will have to monitor. The latest
Nam, Operational and Experimental Hrrr, have trended a little
further west with time. If this looks like it will be reality the
advisory will need to be extended one row of counties further
west.

Low temperatures tonight should be mild and above freezing due to
high dewpoints and cloud cover. A tough/problematic high
temperature forecast for tomorrow. There could end up being a wide
range of temperatures. Cloud cover will be slow to clear out of
the eastern counties. The last few days, the locations that saw
sun the earliest warmed to above the given guidance. The warmest
temperatures, close to what they were today, will occur along and
west of the Colorado border. Temperatures in the east could be 10
to 15 degrees cooler. If the latest Nam is right, the temperatures
in the east that I have in there now are too warm.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 100 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

Progressive pattern early in the period will become more amplified
by the end of the period as a ridge builds over the Rockies.
Bottom line is that precipitation chances will be slim and
temperatures variable, but tending to be near to slightly above
normal. Thursday and Friday will be windy, with southerly winds on
Thursday ahead of a front and northerly winds on Friday behind it.
There will also be slim chances for light rain or rain/snow
showers Friday and Friday night behind the surface front. No
accumulating snow is expected. The remainder of the long term
period will be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1041 AM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

Air mass remains the same and will continue to allow stratus and
fog to continue through this period. For Kgld, for at least this
period it looks like the greatest threat of stratus and fog will
remain east of the site. Vfr conditions are expected through the
period with south to southwest winds near 7 knots. Those winds
will shift to the northwest at near the same speed late tomorrow
morning.

For Kmck, conditions will start out mvfr. Near 21 to 22z will
temporarily become vfr. However due to persistent southerly flow
and high low level moisture, mvfr conditions will rapidly develop
near sunset. By late in the evening those conditions will become
ifr. Near or shortly after midnight, lifr/vlifr conditions are
expected to develop and continue until the end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday
     for KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday
     for NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER



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