Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 180930
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
230 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 230 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

Today-tonight...mid and high level clouds will spread across the
area from west to east ahead of an approaching upper trough.
Southerly winds will increase this afternoon with speeds of 10 to 20
mph, highest along and west of the Colorado/Kansas border. They
remain breezy late this evening through the rest of the night.
Afternoon temperatures should peak in the mid to upper 60s. For
tonight increasing low level moisture will keep lows rather mild for
this time of year with upper 30s to low 40s. As advertised by
previous shift am expecting some fog to move in from the south
toward sunrise.

Sunday-Sunday night...upper trough becomes negatively tilted as it
approaches the area during the day. It moves northeast across the
area during the night. Should see some patchy fog in the morning
with some showers and possible thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening with the upper trough passage. Southerly winds increase into
the breezy to windy category during the day. Behind the trough winds
shift to the northwest and increase into the 15 to 25 mph range by
sunrise Monday morning from Goodland to Yuma. High temperatures in
the mid to upper 60s. Lows in the mid 30s west to mid 40s east.

Monday-Monday night...clouds quickly decrease in the morning with a
clear/mostly clear sky during the night. Main weather story will be
northwest winds gusting 30 to 40 mph during the day. Afternoon
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s with lows in the low to mid
30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

Tuesday-Wednesday: Shortwave ridging aloft transitions eastward with
westerly flow developing in the Central Rockies by Tuesday
afternoon. This will keep a deep dry and stable air mass in place
over our CWA. Deepening lee trough will result in good WAA and
models have been consistent on temps aloft reflecting very similar
conditions as our record highs this past Thursday (mid to upper
70s). I trended highs upwards to reflect this based on biases of
past warm ups. Highs Wednesday will also be quite warm (60s/lower
70s), but as surface trough shifts eastward there is less confidence
on where main axis of WAA will fall.

Winds may currently be underdone Tuesday as model mixing heights
might allow for gusts 20-25mph to mix in the morning before stronger
winds aloft transition out of the area. Timing does not seem to
support RFW as winds may decrease as lowest RH develops. Will need
to monitor due to the dry/warm conditions likely to occur.

Thursday-Friday: Change in pattern is still reflected during these
periods in current guidance. Trough is shown to move across the
Great Basin and deepen over the Plains, with a cold front dropping
through our CWA by Thursday night. Confidence is still high on
seasonably cold temperatures and windy conditions on Friday.
Magnitude of CAA is somewhat limited, but highs Friday could be near
freezing depending on timing of precip/cloud cover. While below
normal in a technical sense this is much more seasonal than we have
experienced in the last few weeks.

Regarding precipitation: 12Z ECMWF and 12z/00z GFS have reflected a
northerly track in the previous few runs which is generally
unfavorable for our CWA to receive meaningful precipitation (maybe
the far north/northwest). Latest runs of ECMWF/GEM have shown
opposite trends. GEM is much stronger and could support a winter
storm developing. The 00Z run of the ECWMF has shifted further south
in a similar manner to the GEM, but is more progressive and shows a
smaller window for moisture advection. I kept PoPs in place with
only adjustment to timing, as models support any precip ending by
midday Friday. Lots of uncertainty on amounts, with range of
possibilities from a barely measurable event to a winter storm. At
this range we will have time to fine tune details as consistency
hopefully increases.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 230 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through at least 10Z. Winds
initially variable 5kts becoming southeast around 8kts by 18z.
Could see a few gusts 15-20kts in the 20z-22z timeframe. Winds
become southerly and increase toward 13kts by 06z and continue
through 10z before lowering toward 11kts through 12z. Stratus/fog
approach the terminal or could reach the terminal after 11z. For
now will keep things vfr.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through at least 10z. Winds variable
5kts or less from taf issuance through about 19z. From 20z-08z
winds generally from the southeast under 10kts. From 09z through
the rest of the taf period winds remain from the southeast under
10kts with wind shear expected. Similar to KGLD will have to watch
for possibility of stratus/fog to reach the terminal from the
southeast after 10z or 11z. For now have kept forecast vfr.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

The combination of relative humidity values slightly above 15
percent and northwest winds gusting to 35 mph will produce
critical or near critical fire weather conditions Monday
afternoon generally along and west of a line from Haigler
Nebraska to Goodland and Russell Springs Kansas.

Critical and near critical fire weather conditions are expected
Tuesday over much of the area as winds gusting to 25 mph will
combine with relative humidity values near 15 percent.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

Record and near record high temperatures are possible at the
following locations Tuesday February 21:

Goodland..........73 in 1995 and previous years
Hill City.........77 in 1977
McCook............76 in 1933
Burlington........72 in 2000
Colby.............74 in 1972 and previous years
Yuma..............72 in 1982

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
CLIMATE...99



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