Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 110458
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1058 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG FOR THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE DRIER
AIR THAT MOVES IN. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID/UPPER 60S...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHES OF FOG FORMING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

TONIGHT...

MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUNDING NICELY FROM THE MORNING
CLOUD-AFFECTED NUMBERS...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND SEVERAL HOURS OF
DAYTIME HEATING LEFT IN THE DAY. WEAK LOW/LEE-SIDE TROUGH DOES SIT
OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME...WITH BROAD H5
RIDGE. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODELS SHOW WEAK 700MB
TROUGH ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH LEE-SIDE
TROUGH...AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED 2 FACTORS WILL ALLOW THE 700 MB WAVE TO RIDE EAST
ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER OVERNIGHT. 850 FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD TRIGGER A FEW STORMS
BETWEEN 04Z-12Z. THIS COMBINED WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
COLORADO AT THIS TIME HAS ALLOWED FOR 20 POPS FOR WESTERN
COLORADO/NORTHERN CWA ZONES OVERNIGHT. PRECIP-FREE ZONES FOR CENTRAL
SOUTHERN AREA. WITH TEMPS ALREADY A FEW DEGREES BELOW WHAT MODELS
SAY WHAT WE SHOULD BE AT...HAVE UNDERCUT NUMBERS BY A COUPLE DEGREES
IN SPOTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL RANGE IN LOWER TO MID 60S.

GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ANY LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL GIVE
WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND REMAIN INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THE AFTERNOON...CWA WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WNW AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP
ALONG THE REMNANTS OF LOW/TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. EXPECTING CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO START
OVER NW ZONES AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY 00Z SATURDAY. FOR
NOW...STAYING IN THE 20/30 POP RANGE FOR INITIAL START OF
PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES...CLEARING PERIOD FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO STRETCH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...AIDED BY 850 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +28C
TO +31C W/ BEING ON THE WARM POOL W/ WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA.
SPC DOES HAVE THE NORTHERN ZONE REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WX POTENTIAL .

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BEING ADVERTISED BY LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
STARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE
WEST AND THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER ALBERTA INTENSIFIES AND STARTS
HEADING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER FLOW
FROM WEST-NORTHWEST WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT CLEAR DOWN TO THE GULF COAST WHICH IS
EXTREMELY UNUSUAL FOR JULY. MEANWHILE A 1028 MB CANADIAN HIGH WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOT CLEAR
CUT BUT IT APPEARS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN MID LEVELS MOVES FROM COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA. ON
SATURDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE
SURFACE FRONT DROPS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS.

HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL COOL OFF IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 80S
WITH THE SOUTH HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 90S. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH ON SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THOSE DAYS IN THE 80S. A SHARP COOL DOWN IS SEEN
TUE-WED AS THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A WARMUP AFTER THAT.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS FAIRLY
TENUOUS WITH POPS MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF
BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE
GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. COMPROMISED WITH HOLDING LOWER
END POPS IN THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD. LATEST
SAT/RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO MOVING EASTWARD. AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT... CONVECTION MAY TREND UPWARD IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE
BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION WILL BUILD.
HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM KGLD SINCE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
BE NORTHEAST OF THE GOODLAND TERMINAL. CHANCES ARE HIGHER AT
KMCK BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TERMINAL BEING
DIRECTLY IMPACTED IS LOW. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW WITH THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY BEING EAST
OF BOTH TERMINALS. NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS AT KGLD WINDS MAY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR A PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON. REVISIONS TO THE
WIND FORECAST ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MAY BE
NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...BRB





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