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000
FXUS63 KGLD 152017
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVES WILL BE COMING OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. STORMS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1800 TO 2400 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40KTS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE AREA.
STEERING WIND WILL MOVE STORMS SLOWLY EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
PLAN TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND CHANCE POPS SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT BEHIND THE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ITS
SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA AND IN COMBINATION WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR MUCH WARMER AIR
AND A STRONGER CAP. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE CONVERGENCE ALONG SHARPENING DRYLINE AND
TRANSIENT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW.
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE TIMING AND
CHARACTERISTICS OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
LEAVES TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR CONFIDENCE IN POPS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND KEEPS HEIGHT FALLS NORTH OF OUR
AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT KGLD AND KMCK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO KGLD FIRST AND THEN TO
KMCK LATER THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES ABOVE 90 PERCENT ESPECIALLY AT KMCK WHERE IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO A STRATUS DECK WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING
SUNDAY. SOME SCATTERED STRATUS IS EXPECTED AT KGLD. STRATUS WILL
SLOWLY ERODE BY MID MORNING AT BOTH SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...FS