Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 040822
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
222 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE HOW MUCH TO WARM UP TEMPERATURES AND A
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/SPLIT FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO NORTH AMERICA. UPPER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
HAS PUSHED A FRONT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/UKMET.
AGAIN THE GFS AND CANADIAN DOING THE BEST WITH THE STRENGTH/POSITION
OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THE
ECMWF WAS DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE PATTERN. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/NAM/SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EDGE TOWARD THE
AREA WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AROUND. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOWING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT TRYING TO SAG INTO THE AREA AS INDICATED
BY THE SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS
WARMING OVER YESTERDAYS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS/BIASES AND WARMING INDICATED AT 850 MB...WARMED UP THE MAXES
A LITTLE. FOR THE NIGHT...LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN PORTION. ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH CREATES WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. PER THE REASONING ABOVE...I
ONCE AGAIN RAISED MAXES. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS AND FOG FOR
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE SREF PROBABILITIES AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT SHOW NOTHING SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT OUT.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE STARTS PUSHING TO THE EAST. MODELS
APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ALSO THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING THE PATTERN IN PLACE. SO WOULD EXPECT STRONGER RIDGING.

HOWEVER AFTER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT UP TO THIS PERIOD...MODELS START
DIVERGING IN THIS PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP IN THE
TEMPERATURES AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL. ALL THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO
WHERE THE MODELS PUT THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE CANADIAN NEXT IN LINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE THE FURTHEST NORTH...STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING
THE PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO NOT MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS
SOUTH.

FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...CONSIDERING THE ABOVE AND REASONING USED
FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. FOR RAINFALL CHANCES...SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND NOT MUCH CAP. AFTER COLLABORATION...AND
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND BEING A LITTLE OVER 3 DAYS
OUT...PLAN ON KEEPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MY NORTHWEST CORNER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTO THE MIDDLE 20S C. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FRIDAY.

THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCER ENTERS THE PICTURE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WHILE THE
EXTENDED MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OVER THE
WEEKEND...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE SETS UP OVER
EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PREVAILING
WINDS BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR



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