Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 101400
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
800 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

UPDATE TO GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED MAINLY TO ADJUST CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION. MORNING LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING...BUT IS SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE
EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HAVE TRENDED EASTERN ZONES MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES...WHILE
WESTERN ZONES WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TRENDING TO SUNNY BY
MIDDAY. SOME TWEAKS TO GOING TEMPERATURES FROM LATEST OBS...BUT
WILL KEEP DAYTIME FORECASTED HIGHS INTACT FOR NOW AND AWAIT NEXT
UPDATE TO SEE IF CURRENT CLOUD COVER IS AFFECTING GOING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY/TONIGHT
AND THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE WILL BE OVER THE FA THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL
BE AN AXIS OF 2000-2400 J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA BUT
THERE WILL ALSO BE HIGH VALUES OF CIN OVER THE SAME AREA.  THE MOST
LIKELY PLACE OF STORM INITIATION WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT CAPE WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 200 J/KG. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE WILL RETURN TO THE FA FRIDAY MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON
CAPE INCREASES TO 2400 J/KG ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING.  PLAN
TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE TROUGH AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FA. POPS WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA.  PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LATEST SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT INDICATES STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH SHOWS THAT THIS AREA
OF STRATUS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH INTO OTHER AREAS OF THE FA THROUGH
SUNRISE. PLAN TO INCREASE SKY COVER OVER THIS AREA UNTIL AROUND 15Z
TODAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S TODAY WITH COOLER LOWER
90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM CANADA ON
SUNDAY.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN A TRANSITION ZONE
BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL JET
STREAM SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HINTS OF STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH KANSAS ON TUESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.  THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN
DROP A BIT LOWER INTO THE UPPER 60S.  MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INDICATING A COOLING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS STARTING FOR THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CONTINUE TO DROP
FURTHER.  FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXACT
TEMPERATURE RANGE...HOWEVER...TRENDS DEPICT A BREAK FROM THE WARM
WEATHER AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S EXITNG SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AND AT KGLD AND KMCK.
HOWEVER A STRATUS LAYER WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OR UNTIL
MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.  LATER TODAY SOME
STORMS WILL FIRE NEAR A TROUGH IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND MOVE INTO
THE VICINITY OF KMCK. KGLD SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY STORMS TODAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS







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