Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
522 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 331 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Quiet conditions to persist to end the work week and head into the
weekend. Forecast focus continues to mainly be on temperatures in
addition to any fog potential.

Even with increasing moisture/dew points this morning, fog potential
has been limited with winds remaining generally above 5 kts. Winds
look to increase throughout the day as the area experiences a
tightening pressure gradient with a surface low across southwest
Canada deepening and ridging building into the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley regions. Today will signal the beginning of the advertised
warming trend with temperatures soaring into the low to mid 40s
across much of the area (possibly 50+ far southeastern North
Dakota). The only exception will be extreme north central
Minnesota where readings are starting out a bit lower and where
the strongest push of warm advection will be the last to reach.

Upper level ridging will then to build into the central CONUS as
the surface low propagates across central Saskatchewan/Manitoba,
bringing a weak surface trough through the area allowing winds to
weaken a bit by this evening. Wind speeds shouldn`t completely
drop off but fog potential will need to be evaluated once again as
winds might be a tad weaker than overnight Wednesday.

The main upper ridge axis shifts off to the east on Friday but a
plenty warm air mass will remain in place with high/low
temperatures remaining a solid 20 degrees (or more) above normal
heading into the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 331 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Focus for early next week will be 500 mb trough and low pressure
which will track north through the Dakotas and into Manitoba Monday
into Monday night. 00z model suite in better agreement in showing
an average of 0.25 to 0.40 inch qpf (liquid) for this event. GFS
operational model has been quite variable over the past two days
with amounts while the GFS Ensemble guidance has been more
consistent in showing the 0.25 to 0.40 inch amounts. With low
pressure moving west of the RRV it does open the door for a very
moist airmass to move up with increasing likelihood of some low 50
dews pts to reach into far SE ND Monday. 40s dew pts up well
north to near the Canadian border. This warm/moist airmass will
accelerate further the snow melt in addition to the rain. With
warmer temps mostly all rain for the fcst area...only some minor
rain/snow mix chances along the Canadian border. System exits
Tuesday and cooler weather moves in Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)

Issued at 522 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR conditions throughout the period. Any fog early this morning
has been confined to areas near the international border and away
from the main TAF sites. Otherwise, quiet conditions with just
some cirrus continuing to stream across the area today. Southerly
winds 10-15 kts may turn a bit more westerly at the eastern ND
sites but should decrease to around 5 kts by evening. Any fog
potential late in the period will be highly dependent upon how low
winds can get so have refrained from including with this TAF




LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Lee is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.