Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
938 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS FIRED AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS A SHORT WHILE AGO
ALONG THE BEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT HAVE QUICKLY
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE
VORT MAX WOULD INDICATE NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER WEST. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO LOWERED
LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE WESTERN CWA AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND
WINDS HAVE DECREASED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IN THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE NORTH
NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN CANADA. THERE ARE SOME WEAK ECHOES
DEVELOPING BUT WITH A LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION THINK NOT MUCH
WILL REACH THE GROUND. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT AM NOT VERY EXCITED
ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT. WILL TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT THE NEXT
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST INCLUDE TEMPS AND PRECIP. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST AND USED A BLEND TOWARD THE
OVERALL DRIER 12Z ECMWF AND GEM WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT AND
POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET AS
ATMOSPHERIC DECOUPLING OCCURS QUICKLY WITH THE DRY COLUMN. WAA
CONTINUES ABOVE THE INVERSION WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND
EIGHT TENTHS OF AN INCH. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
MAYBE ENOUGH TO GET SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WITH AS
SHOWALTERS ARE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.

FOR MONDAY A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH WIDE SPREAD LIFT
ALOFT AS500MB LOW ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL ND BY 00Z WILL LIMIT SOLAR
AND MAKE FOR COOLER MAX TEMPS. SLIGHT POPS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
LIFT THOUGH MOISTURE MEAGER IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND EXPECTING A
DRY DAYTIME MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR AT LOWER LEVEL AND EXPECTING SHOWERS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF 500MB LOW TO WRAP INTO THE NORTH FA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

TUESDAY NW WINDS WILL BE STRONG AS MIXING TO AROUND 850MB HAS 20
TO 30 KTS COMBINED WITH PGF BETWEEN GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EAST IN
THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH. WITH AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH IF CLOUDS
CLEAR A COOL NIGHT INSTORE AS RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS OVER NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THAN PROPAGATING
OVER THE REGION SATURDAY/SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES (ACTUALLY MORE NEAR NORMAL) FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...THUS ANY WEAK FORCING
SHOULD NOT LEAD TO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE 4000-6000
FT CIGS AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES GIVING WAY TO CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS AS GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO
MORE WESTERLY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES IN. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THEN WESTERLY BY
TOMORROW. WITH THE SFC LOW OVER THE REGION SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE VERY HIGH...AND WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS IN MOST AREAS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JR






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