Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 200430
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1130 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

No changes necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 955 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

Gusty winds west of the valley beginning to subside with loss of
heating. Expect trends to continue. Current forecast on track. No
changes necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

Severe convective line has cleared the forecast area and removed
pops the rest of tonight and likely will be will be able to c.
Still have an isolated severe storm approaching lake of the Woods
and will impact that area the next hour or two. Otherwise
generally clear skies anticipated remainder of the night with much
drier airmass spreading from west to east. Some gusty winds this
evening over higher terrain west of the valley should diminish
with loss of heating. Grids tweaked accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

At 20z a Surface cold front has nearly pushed through the FA and
was stalled roughly along a Baudette-Bemidji-Breckenridge line.
SPC mesoanalysis indicates 2500 to 4000 j/kg of MLCAPE across the
area with MNCIN eroding along the boundary...while the SPC HRRR3
model runs have been consistent in developing scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms along the frontal zone just east of FAR-BJI
line from 21z onward. Suspect that this is a bit early as 18z ABR
amd INL soundings coming in with 15C at 700mb...suggesting a
substantial CAP needs to be overcome. That said... will need to
keep sharp eyes on that frontal zone through around 00z... till
threat shifts well east of the FA. If CAP breaks... rotating
supercells are likely across the southeastern FA. SPC is
considering a Watch to be highly likely for this area attm.

Tonight and Monday...A more stable and dry airmass settles into
the area overnight with dewpoints dropping into the lower 50s for
most areas by around midnight. Light west to northwest blayer flow
will persist overnight and into Monday. Temps overall cool to
slightly below normal realms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

The period starts quiet as sfc high pressure builds over the
forecast area. Upper level pattern shows mainly zonal flow with a
slight NW flow component. Temps will remain rather seasonal with
highs in the mid 70s with little pcpn forecast.

By Wednesday...the H5 ridge will build and shift eastward over the
Dakotas and start to bring warmer temps back across the
region...with values beginning to climb back in the 70s and 80s.
Southerly sfc winds will bring moisture back north ahead of another
low pressure system forecast to cross the area. The risk for
showers/tstms increase ahead of the system with lift associated with
the sfc boundary.

For Thursday through Sunday...the pattern becomes a little more
unsettled as a series of waves propagate through the flow bringing
more chances for pcpn...and temperatures remain near to slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

VFR conditions through the period with no cigs anticipated.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Voelker



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