Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Thursday night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Flat upper level ridge axis was over eastern MT. Water vapor loop
indicated a short wave over northeast MT. Upper level jet extended
from the Pacific Northwest along the Canadian border to New England.
Upper level jet will shot slowly into southern Canada through 12Z

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough off the southern CA
coast. Trough will move into the Northern and Central Plains by 00Z
Thu and bring threat of rain in the southern Red River Valley. High
level moisture forecast to move into southern MN and southern SD

Upper level trough off the west coast of Canada will move into the
Intermountain West and deepen. Downstream ridge building will occur
over the Northern Plains by 12Z Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

For friday through Monday...the forecast deals with track and timing
of 500 mb upper low/trough which will move northeast and east into
the northern plains.  ECMWF has been a bit more consistent over the
past few days in taking upper low in tact into ND/SD Sunday.  00z
GFS weakens upper low and opens it up and trough moves through a lot
faster.  Thus with ECMWF precipitation hangs around a bit longer
than with GFS.  Models do indicate however the heaviest rainfall
likely to the west of the upper low over Montana into parts of
eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba...which is good news for
area farmers. Overall no deviation from given model blend


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Some high based showers look to arrive in the KFAR area in the 14z
to 17z time frame. Could be a rumble or two of thunder, but latest
models keep the elevated instability either west or south of KFAR.
Otherwise, just looking at light winds and mid and high level
clouds throughout.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Godon is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.