Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300436
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1136 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER S CENTRAL SASK GENERATING A FEW TSRA. CURRENT
SPC HRRR PROPAGATES CONVECTION ESE OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY
DISSIPATES ANY PCPN BEFORE GETTING TOO FAR INTO THE FAR NW PORTION
OF OUR FA AROUND 12Z. KEPT FORECAST DRY THIS AREA BUT WORTH
MONITORING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

HAVE CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAST THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIE
OFF THIS EVENING...THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WERE
STILL QUITE GUSTY EVERYWHERE BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FA. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM AND
WILL LET THAT RIDE AS IS. SOME CUMULUS DID FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT
IT SHOULD THIN OUT AGAIN THIS EVENING. PATTERN IS PRETTY SIMILAR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EACH OF THESE DAYS
THE MODELS SHOW WEAK WAVES DROPPING THRU POTENTIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING...WHICH COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. FOR THU
AFTERNOON THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS.
WENT AHEAD AND MATCHED KDLH WITH SOME ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SAME STORY GOES FOR FRI...WITH THE POTENTIAL AREA STILL BEING
AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. CONFIDENCE ALSO LOW SO DID NOT
MENTION AT THIS POINT. FOR SAT MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE BUT
CONSISTENT IN MINIMAL IF ANY PCPN. BROADBRUSHED AN ISOLATED
MENTION BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE LOW.

FOR SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT DEPICTING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MUCH OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL...ALTHOUGH HARD TO FORECAST WEAK WAVES WITH
THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN. AT ANY RATE...NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL VALUES. BY
THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL TO GET BACK INTO
ZONAL/SW FLOW ALOFT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL
PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MID LEVEL CIGS ACROSS DVL-GFK ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER S CENTRAL SASK OTHERWISE NO
CIGS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AM BUT NOT NEAR AS
STRONG AS LAST TWO DAYS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER


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