Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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611
FXUS63 KFGF 051856
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1256 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN AT LEAST TO START OUT WITH. BY
SUN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY. BY 12Z
MON AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WI/IL AREA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS
THAN AN INCH.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES A BIT TODAY WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES AGAIN SAT WITH WARM FRONT MOVING
IN. THE ECMWF WAS A FARTHER NORTHEAST SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. WILL
BLEND THE TWO MODELS. COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUN.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON LATE SAT INTO SUN AS SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES. SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SUN. WILL UPDATE THE SPS FOR
WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AS THE WEEKEND UPPER LOW DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKE ON MONDAY AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH ON TUESDAY COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...BUT WITH MODELS HAVING A LOT OF VARIATION
IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...KEPT THE FAIRLY LOW POPS THAT THE
BLENDED SOLUTION GIVES US. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST
THE COLDER AIR COMES DOWN. BLENDS GIVE US A FAIRLY GOOD GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR TEMPS WITH COLDEST READINGS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND MORE MILD IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH NW WINDS TODAY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY
ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST AFTER THIS VALID
PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...DK



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