Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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788
FXUS63 KFGF 210129
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
829 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Let the wind advisory expire on time at 8 pm. Really never saw the
type of gusts that southern Manitoba had, but did see a few higher
gusts at St. Vincent (48 mph) and Flag Island (51 mph) in
Minnesota. Winds have now shifted to the north behind a line from
Lake of the Woods to Grand Forks to Devils Lake. These northerly
winds and cooler temperatures will continue to push southward
tonight. There is already a good 20 degree temperature difference
across the FA, as the northwest FA is at 20F and the southeast FA
is at 40F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Cold front/wind shift line is just entering the northwestern
forecast area this afternoon. Ahead of this line, clouds cleared
much of northwest Minnesota and the Red River Valley allowing
temperatures to soar into the upper 40s/low 50s. The Devils Lake
basin remained under thicker cloud cover for most of the day, and
with the arrival of a northerly wind shift, temperatures have
remained a bit cooler out that way.

More cloud cover is moving back in to the area (mainly along and
south of Highway 2), and spreading from west to east. Models have
been having a hard time with the extent of cloud cover which will
likely have an impact on how far temperatures drop tonight. An
additional factor will be the increasing northerly winds along and
behind the front to 10-15 mph (gusts maybe 25-30 mph north)
overnight. Lastly, a compact upper wave (depicted nicely on water
vapor this afternoon) near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border will
propagate southeastward and clip the far northeastern forecast
area. Some light snow showers (or at least flurries) aren`t out of
the question with this feature, even with somewhat limited
moisture in place, across mainly the Lake of the Woods area. Any
accumulation should be minor, if anything at all.

Canadian high pressure will build southward into the area on Tuesday
ushering in much colder air relative to Monday. Cool, northerly flow
will keep temperatures below the freezing mark once again, except
for maybe the far south along the South Dakota border.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

The forecast for this period starts off with cold high pressure
sliding southeast from southern MB into the Great Lakes region. An
upper ridge will move through the area on Wednesday...with southerly
winds increasing across the region. Warmer air then moves into the
area for Thursday, but so will some precipitation. Right now it
looks like it should be mainly rain Thursday and Thursday night. A
cold front will approach from the north on Friday, but there is some
uncertainty how far south this front will progress. After Friday
morning`s precipitation in the far southeast, conditions look dry
until Sunday night/Monday when chances for mainly rain return. After
a close to normal Wednesday, temperatures look to be generally above
average for this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Winds will be the main story initially. Gusty westerly winds will
switch to the northwest in the next 1 to 3 hours, and stay gusty.
KFAR may not see wind gusts as high as the other TAF sites, but
they will still see some. These higher wind gusts should decrease
again by mid evening, but they will still be a little gusty into
Tuesday morning.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Godon



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