Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 220411
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1011 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Area of rain showers moving east quickly along hwy 2...now mostly
in MN. Amounts were very light as the cloud bases the rain was
from was around 10k ft agl. Remains of earlier thunder in SW ND
and SE MT moving east as showers and these will move into SE ND/WC
MN overnight so added pops to this area which had been dry. Nice
break in the action upstream so tweeked pops down in far northern
areas. Fog is still present though less expansive on the dense
fog....but still around Langdon, Cavalier and lesser degree Grand
Forks, Grafton.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

The main concern tonight through Wednesday will be the impacts of
precipitation produced by a surface low rushing through North Dakota
from west to east. Precipitation will begin in the Devils Lake area
tonight as light rain. As dry air aloft gradually becomes more
saturated overnight, rain showers will spread along and north of
Highway 2, centered around an axis from Devils Lake ND to Baudette
and Roseau. With temperatures having remained significantly cooler
over an area from Hallock to Roseau, would expect those locations
to receive more snow showers/light wintry mix than rain during
tonight.

Temperatures begin to drop overnight from northwest to
southeast as cold air moves in behind the cold front. This colder
air moving in from the north Wednesday morning will gradually
transition precipitation to a light wintry mix and light snow by
Wednesday afternoon in the northern half of the forecast area.
These locations will likely see less than an inch of snow, but
with some uncertainty in the model QPF and temperature fields
today, cannot rule out bands of heavier amounts especially around
the Devils Lake area and an area from Bemidji to Crookston in MN.
Slick roads will be a concern Wednesday morning in the northern
half of the forecast area with temperatures falling to near or
just below freezing during the morning commute. Precipitation
chances gradually increase southward early Wednesday morning. In
the southern half of the forecast area, expect that the air will
gradually saturate early Wednesday and temperatures look to
remain warm enough to receive mainly light rain showers during
late morning through late afternoon.

Fog will continue to be a concern overnight and into Wednesday
morning as some parts of the far northern Red River Valley have not
quite cleared out today and relatively strong low level moisture
content remains in the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

On Wednesday evening, it`s possible precipitation will still be present.
There are several short wave troughs will be exiting the area at
that point. There is also high vorticity at the 500 mb level
causing rising motion near the surface. Expecting mixed
precipitation changing over to snow into Thursday morning before
tapering off. Temperatures are starting to dip down into the low
30s reaching the mid 20s for the high on Friday following a cold
front pushing southward through the period. The GFS has a system
that is trending further northward than other models which has
potential to clip our southern counties. Included some low PoPs in
the region however, if precipitation occurs, it will likely be in
our southern counties.

Saturday and Sunday temperatures are going to continue to dip into
the single digits for lows and twenties for highs. Temperatures will
be near average values for this time of year. Very few short waves
will be moving through over the weekend and this could bring a few
flurries to light snow showers however, nothing significant.

Monday and Tuesday bring about the most challenge. The GFS and
European models are not in agreement in regards to a system that has
potential to set up over the forecast area. The location of the low
pressure system will determine where and how much precipitation is
expected over these days. Uncertainty is very high. Will keep PoPs
near the blended solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Grand Forks with VLIFR vsbys and cigs. Highly uncertain on exact
vsby/cigs thru the night into Wednesday but feel better chances
than not that IFR cigs will continue, though vsbys and cigs not
quite as extreme as 01z. Rest of the TAF sites may see low clouds
and/or fog form as cooler airmass drops south. But once gain high
uncertainity on timing. Spotty light precip moving along Hwy 2
corridor this evening with additional precip later tonight into
Wednesday, with this second batch trending toward more of a mix.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NDZ007-008-016-
     026-027-029-030-054.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...dtr
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Riddle



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