Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 222051
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
351 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Water vapor loop indicated upper low was over MN/MAN border and was
moving east about 15 knots. Upper low will move to the New England
coast by Thu afternoon. Instability remains over the southeast
zones. Downdraft capes were running better than a 1000j/kg.
However mid level lapse rates were not very impressive.

Surface mixing ratios were decreasing post frontal in the southern
zones. Convective temps were in the low to mid 70s in the southeast.
Radar indicated showers and isolated thunder roughly east of line
from DTL to Greenbush MN. New development was occurring in Clay
county. Threat of severe weather is possible over the southeast
zones for the next couple hours then severe threat moves out of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Thursday night surface high will shift east setting up return
flow/warm advection. This should hold minimum temperatures close to
average from 55 to 60.

Warm frontal boundary will lift northward through the forecast area
Friday as surface low pressure organizes over the northern high
plains. There is an outside chance of some light pcpn developing
north of the boundary however as convective inhibition increases
think chances are low. Otherwise increasing humid conditions setting
up as low level moisture flux increases. Temperatures should be able
to recover to at or above average.

Convective initiation and location Friday night will hinge on how
far north boundary gets and when cap goes. Favored location at this
time looks to be across the north half of the fa with severe storms
likely with sufficient convective parameters and strength of low
level jet.

Will likely see ongoing pcpn Saturday am again with best chances
across the north.  Far eastern fa looks to have a narrow window for
severe storms Saturday afternoon before cold front pushes through.

Saturday night and into Sunday will see some wrap around rain across
the north as surface low tracks across southern MB and into Ontario.

Early next week looks dry and cooler as high pressure builds in
and region transitions into nw flow aloft.

Models diverge on solutions for rain potential midweek but based on
pattern favor drier solution at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

MVFR cigs were located over the northwest zones. Rest of the area
had VFR cigs. Expect MVFR cigs to slowly shift south through the
afternoon and overnight.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Hoppes



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