Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 142006
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
306 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Surface boundary has pushed through all but the far se forecast
area. Higher dewpoints lag behind the front where current elevated
convection is taking place. Weak impulse over the Fa providing
enough support to aid in convection into the evening. Based on
elevated cape values and showalter indices, T will be possible
mainly over the southeast half of the fa.  Back edge of pcpn
entering the western fa so trended lower pops from west to east
through the evening with most areas dry after midnight. Convection
currently spotty with T so far isolated so will continue with
high end chance pops. So far CAM guidance is not developing any
convection vcnty boundary which has seen some solar but under
stiff cap. Coolest temperatures overnight will be vcnty DVL basin
which will be under stronger cooling with the remainder seeing
lows in the 50s to around 60.

Fa will see a break first half of tomorrow with leading edge of
rain shield reaching the western fa during the afternoon. Models
in pretty close agreement with timing so did increase pops across
the west from mid afternoon on. With clouds and developing rain
temperatures will be much cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Friday night through Sunday...model trends continue to be in general
agreement and on track with the weekend system crossing the area.
After Tuesday, there is a bit more divergence in solutions so opted
for a blended soln toward the end of the forecast period. Placement
of best divergence is in the northern part of the forecast area
where heavier amounts of stratiform rain is expected. Winds will
more northerly and widespread cloudiness will keep temps on the
cooler side with highs only expected to reach the 50s to low 60s.

By Monday...upper level trof begins shifting east and
broadening...with ridge amplification in the west. This pattern will
shift east resulting in a warm up through the latter part of the
period...with values reaching back into the mid 70s for highs.
Otherwise...expect periods of scattered showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Main challenges will be CIGs and timing of any pcpn. Lowest cigs
currently just behind boundary that is slipping slowly se. With
elevated convection expected along and just behind boundary could
continue to see some mvfr cigs. Otherwise better potential for
more widespread lower cigs will be late tonight.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Voelker



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