Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281723
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1223 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WILL INCREASE WINDS A BIT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TODAY. OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS OVER AN INCH THIS MORNING. A DRIER AIR COLUMN
OVER CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT AND MON ONLY TO RETURN BACK NORTH INTO CANADA ON MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAIN IS
MAINLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS DRY/MOIST INTERFACE. INTERFACE
ALSO ALIGNS WITH 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH OVER
BC AND ALTA/SASK BORDER RESPECTIVELY. RIDGE/TROUGH PAIR WILL MOVE
EAST AND AMPLIFY A BIT TODAY THROUGH MON AND DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING BETTER THAN 130M HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS OVER AN
INCH. HOWEVER MU CAPES ARE CURRENTLY ANEMIC.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH 84 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IN THE VICINITY INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
EXIST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MOST ACTIVITY WOULD BE SCATTERED
AND LIGHT. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS THE NRN
PART OF THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO WRAP IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...DK





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