Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
630 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Made a few minor tweaks to clouds, but no other changes for the
morning update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Winds and how much precip we get in the north today will be the
main forecast concerns for the short term.

The upper low currently over eastern Manitoba will move into
Ontario today, leaving west to northwest flow aloft over the
Northern Plains. Surface low pressure to the northeast will keep
the area under a fairly tight gradient, and winds today will again
be a concern. 925 and 850mb winds are currently around 40 kts, but
will drop down a bit later today into the 30 to 35 kt range. Cold
air advection will help enhance afternoon mixing. Will keep winds
on the higher end, but below advisory criteria with speeds around
25 kt sustained and gusts around 30 to 35 kts.

As the upper low rotates, there should be some decent mid level
moisture coming around the backside of the system. Current rain is
staying north of the international border, but with the cool air
aloft convective redevelopment further south is possible, which
fits high res models for this afternoon. Bumped up POPs a bit to
the 30-50 percent range with some parts of the northeast getting
close to likely POPs as they have a better shot of seeing the more
widespread wrap around precip. With some sub 500 J/kg of CAPE some
thunder is not out of the question so included an isolated mention
for this afternoon.

With the clouds and precip highs in the north will be close to the
70 mark, but the sunny south should see highs in the low 80s.
Tonight, a few showers could linger in the northeast as the system
pulls slowly away, but otherwise it should be drying out and winds
diminishing as high pressure builds into the area. Lows should
drop down into the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Monday through Tuesday...Northwesterly flow aloft should keep
things fairly quiet, although some of the models have a weak
shortwave approaching Tuesday night which could bring a chance for
precip. For now keep a blend with some low POPs in the north.
Temps will be fairly cool Monday with highs in the 60s to low 70s,
and with the surface high overhead Monday night some readings
could see 40s. Temps should recover a bit by Tuesday.

Wednesday through Saturday...Long wave pattern de-amplifies a bit
through the period. long wave ridge over the western North
America weakens a bit while long wave trough over the western
Great Lakes amplifies a bit and shifts a little east. Short wave
trough is expected to move through Thu with the ECMWF being a
slightly faster solution. Will blend the ECMWF and the GFS.

Little change to high temperatures for Wed and Sat. High temps
decreased a decreased a degree or two for Thu and Fri from
yesterdays forecast package.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites. Some MVFR cigs have
entered the area near the Canadian border, but do not expect this
to get far enough south to impact the TAF sites during the day
today. There will be increasing clouds over all but KFAR, but
think that cigs will be mostly in the 4000-8000 ft range. Some
scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm is possible
across the northern forecast area, but think it should be mostly
north of the TAF sites so only have a VCSH mention at KTVF for
now. West winds will become rather strong with gusts above 30 kts
through this afternoon. Winds will eventually shift northwesterly
and start to come down this evening. Some MVFR cigs finally will
move into KTVF and KBJI towards the end of the period.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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