Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1251 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Minor changes made to POPs for afternoon hours. Will begin
focusing on advection of showers beginning to form in western and
southwestern ND, which RAP brings in a bit too fast but in the
late aftn to early evening. Heating along and south of I-94 ought
to allow SB CAPES to increase this afternoon. Will keep some low
POPs across the far north and northwest, but given cellular
nature of this activity, not expecting much this evening with loss
of solar and beginning to trend toward dry conds for majority of
area except for western and southern zones, where some activity
should form over NE S Dakota and move into southern valley during
the early evening hours (all models picking up on this activity).
Again, makes sense given full solar for the day so far and
expected through much of the aftn. A shearless environment will
keep any activity sub-severe.

UPDATE Issued at 909 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Morning update will focus on sky cover. AM visible satellite
showing a good portion of the valley is clear however there is a
band across the Fargo area as well as Grand Forks...with some
broken cigs moving in from the west. The far southern valley is
clear and looks to be clear through the morning hours. Adjusted
sky grids accordingly. Rain shower over Flag Island the last hour
and have increased POPs for the northern half of LOW county.

UPDATE Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

With showers diminishing over the northeastern counties lowered
POPs a bit in those areas for the rest of the morning. A few spots
are still 2SM in visibility so kept a patchy fog mention for just
a bit longer but it should be gone soon as west winds move into
the area.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The timing of precipitation continues to be the main headache for
the period.

The main upper low continues to spin near the Montana/North Dakota
border, with one lead shortwave currently moving through the CWA
and setting off storms in our eastern counties. That shortwave
will quickly move off to the northeast this morning, and with the
main surface low over southern Canada, think that it will be a bit
quieter today with only a few showers near the international
border. Clouds and precip will keep highs in the north near 70
while the southern counties will see readings again near 80. By
this evening however, the main upper low will be coming east, and
models have some precip developing in central ND and moving into
our western counties. Bumped up POPs in that area for the evening
but think that after midnight the better precip chances will be
further south over ABR/MPX`s areas with the low level jet. With
clouds lows should stay in the 50s.

Friday, the main upper low will still be wobbling over the
Northern Plains with an inverted surface trough over the eastern
CWA. Models bring a decent vort up into our eastern counties so
have some fairly high POPs going during the day, although exact
timing is a bit uncertain still. Highs Friday should stay in the
upper 60s to mid 70s with precip at times across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Friday night through Saturday night...The models start to diverge
on the exact timing of weak shortwaves coming through the
southwesterly flow aloft, which is to be expected with these type
of features. For now just broad brushed some high chance POPs.
Clouds and precip will keep lows in the 50s and highs in the low
to mid 70s for Saturday.

Sunday through Wednesday...Split flow remains over North America
with northern stream over Canada and southern stream over the
States. Long wave pattern transitions from a relatively high
amplitude to a zonal flow by the end of the period.

The ECMWF was a faster solution than the GFS. The two models were out
of phase after Sun. The GFS was trending slower while the GFS was
oscillating around. Will prefer the ECMWF.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Ceilings that were MVFR or lower this morning have quickly increased
early this afternoon. Most locations are or will rise shortly into
the VFR range. Could even be SCT at times, but most locations will
stay BKN. A lot of the clouds are diurnal in nature, so they should
decrease in coverage this evening with winds also becoming light.
There may be a few showers around this afternoon, mainly around
KDVL, so have included a VCSH there. Otherwise will have to see how
extensive the showers become and adjust as needed. Models also show
some pcpn moving up toward KFAR later tonight or Friday morning.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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