Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 290409
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1109 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST NEEDED. SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR UPDATED
TAF DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

BAND OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE CIRRUS APPEARS TO BE SMOKE ORIGINATING
FROM A FIRE IN CNTRL SASK. THIS IS GETTING CAUGHT UP IN MID LVL
FLOW AND TRANSPORTED SOUTH ACROSS W CNTRL ND (IR NOT SHOWING THIS
FEATURE). WILL REDUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO SEEN A FEW SFC OBS CONTAINING FU LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING 3 TO 5 DEGREE WARMER HOURLY TEMPS
TONIGHT AND NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE WE WILL BE THAT MUCH WARMER THAN
PREV FCST...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TEMP UPDATES UNTIL 10 PM.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUN SETS AND LIGHT NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH THE GFS PERFORMING WELL OF LATE.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A
STORM EARLY...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE COULD
BE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH SOME HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

ON TUE/WED...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE VERY WEAK
THOUGH...SO IT MAY JUST BE SHOWERS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DRIED THINGS OUT SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH QPF. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP.

THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAME WITH 500MB RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE RESULT FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS A RATHER PERSISTENT
FORECAST WITH THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER A SHORT WAVE WHICH ROUNDS THE
RIDGE ON THURSDAY. CHC OF STORMS THURSDAY WITH THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE TO BE REFINED WITH BETTER DETAIL WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
ANOTHER WAVE APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHC FOR
THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA...DURING INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS.
HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD TO BE PLUS OR MINUS A FEW DEGREES FROM 80...IN
LINE WITH NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGH EARLY AFT FOR TVF/BJI. TSRA WILL DROP INTO
NORTHERN MN FROM WRN ONTARIO EARLY TOMORROW AFTN. WHILE VFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY...TSRA ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID TO LATE AFTN AT THESE
LOCATIONS. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT SITES IN EASTERN
ND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER


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