Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 111747
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

WE WILL NEED TO LOWER TEMPS SOME IN THE NORTH WITH COLD ADVECTION
AND NORTHERLY WINDS HERE ALREADY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THEN MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICTED A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST
SD WITH LIGHT PRECIP/SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MAN WILL DROP
SOUTH TODAY. ALSO A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER
SOUTHWEST MAN AND WILL MOVER THROUGH THIS MORNING. SO LOW POPS OVER
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY. STRONGER SHORT WAVE OVER BC WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SAT. OTHER SHORT WAVE OVER GULF OF AK WILL MOVE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GFS IS A LITTLE MORE REASONABLE TODAY WITH THERMAL FIELD. TODAY THE
GFS IS IF ANYTHING A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. WILL GO A
LITTLE COOLER NORTH FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY, SAT, AND SUN WITH
THERMAL BOUNDARY PLODDING SOUTH. WILL GO WARMER FOR MON MORNING AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A NEARLY ADIABATIC LAYER OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PRETTY COLD PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME
LOW POPS FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS FOR MONDAY. TEMPS FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MODEL CONSENSUS GOES DOWNHILL FOR MID WEEK AND AFTER AS THE GEM HAS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE
THE GFS BRINGS A CUT OFF THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECWMF HAS NO CLOSED WAVE AT ALL BUT WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES. NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO SHOW SOME
CLUSTERING AROUND THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS
STILL VERY HIGH AND NOT MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS.
WILL KEEP THE BLENDED SOLUTION WITH MODERATING TEMPS AND SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE RED RIVER...AND ARE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT IMPACT THE TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE PERIOD.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
LATE TONIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT A MIX OF PCPN GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200/HIGHWAY
10 WHERE THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. OTHERWISE...TAF SITES
FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...SOME
LIGHT ICING IN CLOUD ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL AT ALL TAF SITES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR BY AROUND 09-10Z
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE FA THRU
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU APR 11 2014

THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER...ALONG WITH MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA
TRIBUTARIES...CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO THE SPRING SNOW MELT. MOST OF
THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IS LOCATED IN NW MINNESOTA AS INDICATED BY
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND CONTINUED WARM WEATHER IS HELPING
ERODE IT.

MINTO HAS CRESTED AND GRAFTON MAY STILL FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY FROM
ICE IN CHANNEL BUT IS CRESTING OR NEAR CREST.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS EFFECT FOR WALSH COUNTY. COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT MANY COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP ROADS
REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. SOME TOWNS
INCLUDED IN THE WARNING ARE GRAFTON... MINTO...PARK RIVER...
ARDOCH...CONWAY...EDINBURG AND FORDVILLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS
HYDROLOGY...LUKES/DK






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