Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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730
FXUS63 KFGF 171139
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
639 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE...WITH EVERYTHING ON TRACK THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

PLENTY TO TALK ABOUT THIS MORNING WITH MAJOR STORM TO IMPACT THE
REGION INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...SO A
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN REGARD TO A MAJOR QPF EVENT FOR THE
REGION...WITH MOST AREAS GETTING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE A SEVERE
RISK TODAY AS WELL...AND SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM IN
ADDITION TO VERY STRONG WINDS.

FOR TODAY...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL
MOVE/DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE HIGH
PWATS FROM 1.25 TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY 18Z...WILL MENTION
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ALL AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE SE FA...WITH A
POTENTIAL ENHANCED TORNADO RISK NEAR ANY TRIPLE POINT OR SFC LOW
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF HIGHER SFC BASED
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IF THERE IS SFC HEATING...AND SOMETHING TO
MONITOR FOR SURE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN STARTING
15Z...AND STARTING AT 21Z IN THE VALLEY. THERE WILL BE AROUND
45-50KT TO MIX LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...SO VERY WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE AREAS OF PONDING AND
POTENTIAL URBAN/SMALL STREAM TYPE FLOODING AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
IN AN SPS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE DEFORMATION RAIN BAND WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN THEN SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF SLEET ALSO...PER THE SREF PROBS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN/SNOW
BUT MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG...AND WITH SNOW ACCUMULATING IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HERE. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
GIVEN THAT 925MB TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY 12Z
MON...A VERY COLD SYSTEM FOR MAY 18 FOR SURE.

ON MONDAY...THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS AND IT
WITH SNOW DURING THE MORNING CHANGING TO A COLD RAIN BY AFTERNOON.
THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT OF MOST AREAS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS NOT REACHING 40 IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST AND
PERHAPS A FREEZE IF SKIES CLEAR. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S NORTH AND NEAR 30 SOUTH. IF THERE IS ANY SNOW LEFT ON THE
GROUND...COULD GET EVEN COLDER...PROBABLY NEAR RECORD LOWS.

FOR TUE...IT WILL WARM UP FROM MONDAY AND SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SKIRT TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NE/SD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE CWA. THE AREA STAYS IN DRY NW FLOW WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH POINT TOWARD THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH
ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY...AND A LITTLE
COOLER ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

EXPECT A BAND OF STEADY SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AND GUST TO AROUND
40KT AT TIMES IN THE WEST. THERE WILL ALSO BE IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT LEAST
IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
     MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...DK



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