Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1151 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Issued at 1114 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Line of storms has cleared eastern ND and have cancelled the TOR
watch for eastern ND, as well as far NW Minnesota where it is
predominantly rain showers as well as some high wind gusts, that
have subsided significantly since issuing the high wind warning
for the wake low. Focus now turns to eastern zones where concern
remains of the line of storms just east of the valley beginning to
accelerate. Have issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488 for east
central and southeast zones, with only southern Beltrami being a

UPDATE Issued at 951 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

The strongest storms are now over the southern valley with the
best MLCAPE values as the front moves into the highest sig tor
parameter axis, which is over Richland co. Therefore the greatest
threat for svr/tor should be the srn valley. Across the north, a
wake low has formed and resulting in easterly winds in the 50 kt
to 60 kt range across portions of far northwest Minnesota. Will be
issuing a High Wind Warning for a short duration, ending at 2 AM

UPDATE Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

The strongest storms now over Cass and Barnes counties are moving
out of the strongest MLCAPE into increasing CIN and turning more
to an area of heavy rain with some small hail being reported in
Fargo...although high winds is still a concern. The best MLCAPE
values are over western zones just ahead of the sfc boundary which
is just entering Ramsey county. Expect severe threat over eastern
NODAK to continue as sfc bndry moves into this area of higher
MLCAPE values.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Severe thunderstorm chances continue to be the primary forecast
challenge for the period.

A line of showers and thunderstorms has been moving into the
Devils Lake Basin down to the James River Valley. This activity is
out ahead of the main surface trough axis and cold front. Strong
southeast winds have keep a lot of moisture streaming into the
central Dakotas. Clouds have covered much of the area today, but
there have been breaks and with strong mid level lapse rates and
very strong forcing, the leading storms will continue to
intensify and additional thunderstorm development will begin to
develop. The CAMs have strong storms into the Devils Lake area in
the next few hours and moving into the Red River Valley during the
00-03Z time frame. Most of the CAMs have the thunderstorms
developing into a quasi-linear complex, although some discrete
supercells are not out of the questions. Continue to think that
strong damaging winds will be the primary threat, although hail
and tornadoes will be possible, especially if cells become more

The thunderstorm complex will continue to move into western MN
tonight, and even with decreasing surface instability, should
continue to be fairly strong with very vigorous forcing. Will have
to watch rainfall rates and training of thunderstorm cells for
heavy rain threat. With very dry conditions up until this point
don`t think we will have a widespread flood risk but some issues
in urban areas could develop.

The thunderstorms will exit the area to the east as the cold front
pushes through sometime between 06 and 12Z with a few lingering
showers left behind. Southwest winds and warm air advection will
return fairly quickly for Wednesday as another trough develops to
our west. Other than a few lingering showers in the far northeast
conditions will be quiet and highs near normal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Quieter conditions are expected for Wednesday night into Thursday.
Temperatures will begin to warm into the mid to upper 70s during the
day Thursday with southerly winds at 10 to 15 mph. Temperatures will
be warm again Friday with highs in the low 60s in northeastern North
Dakota and upper 70s in western Minnesota. With the passage of a
frontal system late Friday rain chances will increase across the
region. Rain chances will remain across western Minnesota and far
southeastern North Dakota Friday night through Monday morning.
Rainfall totals in these areas could reach over one inch. Locally
higher rainfall amounts are possible. Temperatures over Saturday and
Sunday will remain cool with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Rain chances should diminish across western Minnesota and
southeastern North Dakota by Monday afternoon with highs in the low
60s expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

The line of thunderstorms has yet to move through KBJI, otherwise
only KDVL is pretty much out of it now. KTVF/KFAR/KGFK are still
dealing with more showery pcpn, either on station or in the
vicinity. For these 3 sites, the showery pcpn will probably last
for a few more hours yet. Otherwise winds are all over the place
as far as directions and speeds. Speeds have gone light in the Red
River Valley and at KTVF, and will continue that way for a while
yet before increasing again. Ceilings outside of the main line of
storms have generally been in the VFR range.




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