Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240001
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AND RADAR INDICATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
ORIENTATED WNW TO ESE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD WERE OVER THE ND SIDE
OFT HE RED RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND AN INCH
AND A QUARTER FOR TONIGHT AND SUN AND REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN EVENT FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM KEEPING THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH DRY. THE OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
HEAVIER QPF UP TO THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR...AND WILL NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM THE PAST FORECAST THAT HAD THIS AS WELL.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG LLJ TO NEARLY 60KT WILL INCREASE INTO SD.
THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THE SOUTH AND MOVING NORTH OVERNIGHT. THUNDER COULD REACH TO THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH.
CAN/T RULE OUT SHOWERS NEARLY ANYWHERE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH BY 12Z SUN.

ON SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SD AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED RAIN SHOWER BAND
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A MOIST/WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ROTATE AROUND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGHEST QPF
TOTALS SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. I WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DRY AIR TO THE NORTH CUT OFF PRECIP
VERY QUICKLY SO RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GO FROM 1-2 INCHES TO VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH OVER A SHORT DISTANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

FOR MONDAY...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE E/NE AND PRECIP
SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY
WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AT LEAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE STRONGEST FORCING
REMAINING SOUTH OF THIS REGION. TWO STRONGER SIGNALS FOR UPPER
SHORTWAVES AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THIS PERIOD (MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION)...WITH DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST ARE ABOVE 12 THOUSAND
FT. CIGS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 THOUSAND FT WAS OVER FAR NORTHERN MN AND
THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER LATER THIS EVENING IN
AN EAST-WEST BAND OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREA
SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY
REMAIN MVFR OR VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...TG/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES



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