Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 262036
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
336 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

CHALLENGES WITH THE FORECAST INCLUDE TEMPS AND PRECIP. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST AND USED A BLEND TOWARD THE
OVERALL DRIER 12Z ECMWF AND GEM WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT AND
POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET AS
ATMOSPHERIC DECOUPLING OCCURS QUICKLY WITH THE DRY COLUMN. WAA
CONTINUES ABOVE THE INVERSION WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND
EIGHT TENTHS OF AN INCH. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
MAYBE ENOUGH TO GET SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WITH AS
SHOWALTERS ARE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.

FOR MONDAY A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH WIDE SPREAD LIFT
ALOFT AS500MB LOW ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL ND BY 00Z WILL LIMIT SOLAR
AND MAKE FOR COOLER MAX TEMPS. SLIGHT POPS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
LIFT THOUGH MOISTURE MEAGER IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND EXPECTING A
DRY DAYTIME MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR AT LOWER LEVEL AND EXPECTING SHOWERS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF 500MB LOW TO WRAP INTO THE NORTH FA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

TUESDAY NW WINDS WILL BE STRONG AS MIXING TO AROUND 850MB HAS 20
TO 30 KTS COMBINED WITH PGF BETWEEN GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EAST IN
THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH. WITH AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH IF CLOUDS
CLEAR A COOL NIGHT INSTORE AS RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS OVER NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THAN PROPAGATING
OVER THE REGION SATURDAY/SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES (ACTUALLY MORE NEAR NORMAL) FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...THUS ANY WEAK FORCING
SHOULD NOT LEAD TO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. A
NARROW BAND OF CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF. OTHERWISE...ONLY HIGH CIGS EXPECTED


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...TG








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