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000
FXUS63 KFGF 141202
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE GONE UP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA ALONG AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. RAP HAS
SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND HAS
SOME PRECIP CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE NEXT ROUND IS SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL ND ON RADAR AND
SHOULD START ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA BY LATE MORNING. ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAYS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WE GET
TODAY AND IF ANY WILL BE SEVERE.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL OUT OVER WA/OR/ID BUT WV LOOP SHOWS
SOME LEAD SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST INTO MN TODAY. THERE HAS BEEN SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL AS JUST OUTSIDE
OUR NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. NONE OF THE MODELS
EXCEPT FOR THE RAP HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY. THINK
THAT THIS BAND OF LIGHT CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS/WX BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH AND WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO WORK WITH...THE
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION.
THE MODELS HAVE DECENT 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF A CAP WITH 700MB
TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE HANGING AROUND FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY
HIGH POPS AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL AND WINDS
IN THE HWO...BUT WILL KEEP A MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA. DECENT WINDS WILL
HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S. NEAR ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER ND FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER MANT/SASK.
WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS...AND WITH THE BEST COLD
AIR ADVECTION HOLDING OFF FOR NOW...HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG DOWN OUT OF CANADA BY SUNDAY...PUSHING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED WITH
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY. PRECIP
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE HIGHS
AROUND 70 IN THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. A
COOL MONDAY WILL SEE A CHC FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD CORE
ALOFT ALLOWING LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED IF ANY SFC SOLAR
OCCURS. SFC HIGH WITH 500MB RIDGING WILL GIVE OVERALL DRY AND WARM
WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME DROPS TO MVFR UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. FOR NOW IT SEEMS THAT THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY
WILL BE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...BUT LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. AFTER A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
DECREASE. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR