Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 111759
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1159 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Received reports that people down in the Cass/Clay county area
cannot see past 200 feet. Webcams/PlowCams do indicate conditions
have gotten worse over the past hour. Thinking there is probably
enough accumulated snow that coverage of these types of conditions
have increased. Thus, extended the blizzard warning into the
Fargo/Moorhead area. Considering forecasted wind speeds, these
conditions should improve early afternoon. Will continue to
monitor.

UPDATE Issued at 705 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

No significant changes to ongoing forecast. Still expect snow to
continue in the northern to central valley and areas east in
northwest MN through mid morning, gradually tapering off from west
to east. Winds may still result in visibility reductions through
the day, especially in open areas, with conditions slowly
improving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Snow will taper off from west to east this morning, with north winds
slowly weakening through the day. Could see occasional visibility
issues in open areas through the day with winds remaining fairly
strong, but visibility should drastically improve by mid day as
falling snow ceases. Areas in the far southern RRV have only seen
isolated snow over the past few hours, so adjusted these counties
into an advisory (instead of warning) for the remainder of the
event. For other locations, previous thinking with headlines will
continue given continued widespread blowing snow.

An added concern today and tonight is dangerous wind chill values in
the -20 to -40 degree range remaining into Friday. Despite gradually
weakening winds, temperatures will continue to plummet due to
continued cold air advection and eventually nighttime radiational
cooling under a surface high. Lows are expected to reach the 20s
below zero. To avoid confusion with ongoing winter headlines, will
hold off on a wind chill advisory for now. After winter weather
headlines end, a wind chill advisory will be needed for the entire
area through at least 18z/noon CST Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

Arctic air settles in for the long haul through the weekend and
into early next week. A weak shortwave moving through MT into SD
could brush our far southwestern counties with precip on Friday,
but at this point it seems most everything will be south so kept
only minimal POPs. There could be some slight improvement to
temperatures Saturday night/Sunday with warm air advection out
ahead of the next shortwave digging down out of Canada, but not
much. For the most part highs will be below zero and lows in the
teens to 20s below through the day 2 through 6 period. Wind chills
will be at advisory criteria most nights. There could be some
light snow with Sunday`s shortwave but at this point it seems any
accumulations would be an inch or less. By the middle of next week
there are indications of a brief warming trend, but models start
to diverge in the days 7 and beyond period. Will keep the blended
solution going with dry conditions and temperatures starting to
rise up above zero the zero mark.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

LIFR conditions due to the blizzard within the valley region will
remain through the early afternoon hours and then conditions will
slowly improve. Outside of the valley, any lingering lower
conditions will quickly improve this afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for NDZ026-
     028-038-049-052>054.

     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CST this afternoon for NDZ008-016-
     027-029-030-039.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Friday for NDZ006-007-014-015-
     024.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ005-
     006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ001>004-
     007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...TG



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