Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Trimmed pops down to mainly isolated as newest cams in good
agreement with most convective activity east of the fa.
Temperatures have boosted above forecast values across the south
however clouds will limit additional rises.

UPDATE Issued at 934 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Cleared pops across the western fa. Adjusted pops across the far
east a bit. Quite a bit of convective inhibition however with
boundary within the FA cannot rule out some elevated convection
so maintained pops.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

No changes at this update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Water vapor loop indicated upper level low pressure system over
southern ALTA with an upper jet moving up the east side of the
trough. Upper jet will shift over the area this afternoon and upper
trough will move across southern MAN Sat night. Low level jet over
the Red River Valley this morning and will shift into southern
Ontario by 18Z Sat.

Showalters were quite low this morning over the area and will shift
to the east this afternoon. surface based LI`s were quite low over
eastern ND.

East-west cross sections indicate good theta-e deficit between 925
and 600 hpa over eastern ND early this morning and shifts into
northwest MN by 12Z Sat. Theta-e deficits then shift into northeast
MN by 21Z Sat.

Pocket of drier air around and above 700 hpa appears to be firing
storms over northwest MN this morning. Afternoon heating should get
storms to develop over the eastern zones. MU CAPES better than
3000j/kg by 18Z Sat. N-S Cold frontal boundary forecast to move to
the Red River by 18Z.

Some wrap around showers are expected for Sat night through Sun
night. Isolated thunder is possible for Sun afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Tuesday through Friday...The models are all in good general
agreement of northwesterly flow aloft throughout the period, but the
devil is in the details. Tuesday should start out fairly dry with
high pressure overhead. Some weak shortwaves will be moving through
later in the week and there isn`t a large amount of agreement on
timing between the deterministic models. Will keep the low POPs that
the blended solution gives us Wednesday through Friday with only
some minor tweaks to smooth. Temps will be near to just below
seasonal averages throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

generally vfr conditions through the period. Winds will gradually
increase from valley west as front continues to push east.
Mentioned brief VCTS at BJI with remaining TAF sites west of
expected development.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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