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000
FXUS63 KFGF 122344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS EAST OF FARGO AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ABOUT 200 J/KG OF CAPE. WE WILL ADD SOME SHOWERS TO
THE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT IT TO BECOME
WINDY OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE SUNDAY...WITH VERY COLD AIR FOR MID
APRIL ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERN LINGERING PCPN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TONIGHT SURFACE LOW TO TRACK ALONG FAR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ANY PCPN
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NE FA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION PUSHES IN HOWEVER MAY BE MORE LIKE SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES. CLOUDS...MIXING AND LACK OF SNOW WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
UP SOME BUT MOST AREAS WILL DROP BLO FREEZING.

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS.

WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH FA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME -SN/FLURRIES WITH MINIMAL SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL BLO THE FREEZING MARK WITH SOME AREAS
DOWN IN THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

FOLLOWED SHORT WAVE PASSAGE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BLO AVERAGE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY COULD BRING A BRIEF AND MINOR MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE BLO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT A VERY MUDDLED PATTERN WILL HOLD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION PMDEPD ALSO MENTIONS A
HIGH SPREAD/LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BEHAVIOR OF INDIVIDUAL SYNOPTIC
SYSTEMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GENERALLY LEFT THE BROADBRUSHED PCPN
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME KNOWING CONFIDENCE IN ANY
IS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH CLOUDS
AND THE NUMEROUS PCPN CHANCES. GUIDANCE TRYING TO SHOW A BIT OF
MODERATION IN TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT FUTURE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO NEAR 30KT LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER SOME BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 30 ANY
SUNSHINE SHOULD QUICKLY SELF DESTRUCT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

SPRING SNOW MELT RUNOFF CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH BASIN WITH MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED AT HALLOCK AND OSLO
AND MINOR FLOODING IN OTHER NW MN TRIBS AND ON THE RED FROM GRAND
FORKS NORTH.

FLOOD WARNING WERE ENDED TODAY AT WARREN AND GRAFTON. AREAL FLOOD
WARNING DOWN STREAM OF GRAFTON AND MINTO ACROSS EASTERN WALSH
CONTINUES AS THE PARK AND FOREST RIVERS RECEDE INTO THE WIDENING RED
RIVER BETWEEN OSLO AND DRAYTON. OSLO...DRAYTON AND PEMBINA CONTINUE
TO RISE WITH EXPECTED CRESTS NEXT WEEK.FLOOD CREST MOVING THRU
ROSEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE WEEKEND AT HALLOCK AT LAKE
BRONSON RELEASES AND LOCAL SNOW MELT WORK INTO THE FROZEN RIVER
SYSTEM WITH ICE ISSUES EXPECTED.

THE UNIQUE SITE THIS YEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE SNAKE RIVER AT
ALVARADO AS THIS WINTERS SNOWFALL AND WINDS COMBINED TO CREATE SNOW
DRIFTS BLOCKING THE CHANNEL IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS BETWEEN WARREN
AND ALVARADO. THIS DAMMING HAS CAUSED THE SNAKE RIVER TO SPILL INTO
AREA FARMLAND AND SLOW ITS PROGRESS FROM WARREN TO ALVARADO.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE AMOUNT OF WATER THAT WILL GO INTO STORAGE
AND THE VOLUME THAT WILL FLOW THRU ALVARADO AND BE MEASURED AT THE
GAGE SITE. WITH THAT UNCERTAINTY WILL DECREASE THE EXPECTED STAGE
HERE FROM MODERATE TO MINOR LEVELS.

WITH LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF A THIRD TO TWO
THIRDS OF AN INCH THE BUFFALO BASIN WILL REMAIN HIGH AND PROLONG
FLOODING AT DILWORTH AND MAY CAUSE HAWLEY TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...WENT WITH A FLOOD WATCH AS A RESULT OF THE POOR CONFIDENCE
IN HOW SATURATED SOILS ARE AND AMOUNT RUNOFF THERE WILL BE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK