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000
FXUS63 KFGF 280040
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS GOING IN OUR NORTHEAST AS FLAG ISLAND REPORTED A BIT OF SNOW
EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOUGH GO OF IT TODAY IN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THE CLOUDS. AFTER THINGS WERE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS DEVELOPING FROM KDTL TO
KFSE. THEREFORE THIS WILL REMAIN THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT AND
WED. OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BREAKS THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFTED EARLIER FROM KBJI TO KROX AS WELL BUT THESE AREAS HAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT REPLACED THEM. SOUTH-SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MAY BE HELPING TO SCOUR THINGS OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF
THINGS REMAINING CLOUDY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTINESS
THIS EVENING BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AT LEAST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE. THESE STEADIER WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THICKER
FOG AT BAY BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME 2-5SM VSBYS IN MIST AROUND.
WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EXPECTED VSBYS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ITSELF. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR.

THERE IS ALSO PRETTY STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK QUITE DRY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT LOTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE THAT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF ECHOES FROM THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MAIN SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE THE UPPER JET AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME MINIMAL PCPN FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS THIS MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN
ANYTHING BUT WILL MENTION A MIX POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. KEPT
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND STEADY
WINDS...BUT ALL THESE BETS ARE OFF IF SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT.
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN
REACHING THE NORTHERN FA ON WED...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST
NOTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z THU IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS CONTINUES
INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN PCPN BAND REMAINS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAY BE MORE LIKE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER WINDS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS WELL ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON THU WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP RECOVERY
EXPECTED. ONE POSITIVE THING IS THE LACK OF SNOW COVER. IF THERE
IS SUN ON THU IT WILL WARM UP. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FA FRI
AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BE
FALLING DURING DAY ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. AN ARCTIC PLUNGE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAY SKIRT THE AREA...POSSIBLE PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW.
NO MAJOR SNOW PRODUCERS ARE ON THE HORIZON...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE KDVL AREA. THE AREA OF NO LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL
FILL IN BY LATE EVENING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING KTVF AND KBJI DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...THE QUESTION IS IF WE WILL GET ENOUGH ADVECTION
TO BRING SOME FOG INTO THE AREA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY
HIGH...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP EVERYONE FROM
GOING COMPLETELY IN THE TANK. INCLUDED SOME 1SM TOWARDS MORNING IN
THE VALLEY BUT WILL KEEP THE LOWEST VIS OUT FOR NOW. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...JR