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000
FXUS63 KFGF 130005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WERE OVER THE AREA WITH WARMER AIR TO THE WEST
AND COOLER TO THE EAST. CLEARING LINE RUNS ROUGHLY FROM WALHALLA TO
PARK RIVER TO LAKOTA TO OAKES ND. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM THE
WEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. MAY TWEAK OVERNIGHT LOW DOWN IN THE WEST
WITH CLEARING. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

LOW CLOUDS NOW STARTING TO BREAK UP/THIN OUT OVER MUCH OF ERN ND
WITH THICKER BAND FROM LANGDON THRU GRAND FORKS TO FERGUS FALLS.
WARMER AIR WITH SUNSHINE IN CNTRL ND WITH 40 DEGREE READINGS UP
AGAINST THE BORDER FROM RUGBY TO JAMESTOWN...CONTRAST WITH STILL
NR 20 IN HALLOCK AND ROSEAU. ALL MODELS CONTINUE IN GREATLY
DOWNPLAYING ANY RISK OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE
UPSTREAM IN EASTERN MANITOBA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
MAINLY TO OUR EAST...THOUGH DID KEEP SOME FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST
TO MATCH UP WITH DLH.

VERY MILD CHINOOK AIRMASS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH 50
DEGREES IN FT MCMURRAY ALBERTA AND MID 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL SASK
WITH 850 MB TEMPS NR +2C. CHINOOK AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY AND COULD SEE TEMPS RISE QUITE HIGH. KEPT IDEA OF MOSTLY
LOW-MID 40S IN SNOW COVERED AREAS WITH 55-60 IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN
FCST AREA. BUT SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW FIELDS ARE VERY BARREN
OF SNOW EVEN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY SO WOULDNT BE SUPRISED AT
AT ALL TO SEE 50 DEGREES PUSH INTO CNTRL RRV.

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST THU NIGHT BUT COLDER SFC AIR STILL A BIT
NORTH AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

MAIN COLD ADVECTION PUSH FRIDAY AT SFC-925 MB. SOME CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES OR A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLY
BUT DRY. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON GROSS FIELDS. LOW LEVEL WAA
COUPLED WITH 700 - 300 DIFF VORT ADV ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTS SOME QPF MOVING NOW TO SE ACROSS CWFA.
COLUMN BLO 0C SO IT SHOULD BE ALL -SN.

WITH HIGH RIDGING IN COULD SEE A BIT MORE WARMING ON MONDAY WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. CONCERN IS MASS LOW LEVEL
TRANSPORT INITIALLY OUT OF COOLER AIRMASS. WARMEST AREAS LIKELY
THOSE WITH LEAST SNOW PACK. RESIDUAL LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND WARMING
AIRMASS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SEE A MIX OF -RASH INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

MODELS DIVERGE FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES VERY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND POSITION OF SURFACE LOW. PATTERN SUGGESTS THE MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW PER ECMWF WITH SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO SPLIT
NATURE OF THE FLOW. DGEX/GFS SUPPORT -SNRA MAILY EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. DUE TO LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS / HIGH UNCERTAINTY /
PLAN TO FOLLOW ALLBLENDS WITH VERY MINOR MODIFICATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

BAND OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ORIENTATED NNW TO SSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MVFR CIGS AROUND 18 HUNDRED FT WERE GENERALLY CENTERED
AROUND THE CKN OR TVF AREA AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO THE SSE.
TRAILING EDGE OF CLOUD BAND WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT 15 KNOTS WHILE
LEADING EDGE WAS MOVING EAST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY ON
THE TRAILING EDGE. ALSO CLEARING OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTH ENDS OF
LAKE MANITOBA AND LAKE WINNIPEG. LOOK FOR CLOUD BAND TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...EWENS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES