Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 040544

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1144 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Issued at 1144 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Made a few minor tweaks to POPs for timing. Temps have been rising
in the last few hours, so increased lows a bit in the west to
upper 20s to low 30s as with continued southerly winds and clouds
it will be tough to fall into the mid 20s.

UPDATE Issued at 953 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Snow and a bit of sleet continues to move northeastward through
the northern RRV, with some spotty light precip showing up on
radar from that area southeastward towards the precip moving
through central MN. Another band of light snow has been moving
through central ND and should arrive in our CWA after 06Z. There
have been some reports of light freezing rain back behind and to
the south of the main precip band, and there have been some
lowered visibilities in spots. Not getting too much ground truth,
but a spotter reported refreezing melted snow had brought slick
spots in west central MN. Satellite cloud top type does show an
area of supercooled water or mixed phase. Models also show some
signs of drying aloft. Will include a period of freezing drizzle
between the first band of snow lifting through and the next one
coming in from the west. Do not think at this point it will be
long lived enough to warrant headlines, but have some short term
products mentioning slick spots on roads from FZDZ/melted snow
that is refreezing.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Regional radars show that echoes have developed over northeast SD
and are lifting up into the southern Red River Valley. KABR
reported some light rain and ice pellets and the Oakes ND web cam
shows just light snow. This band is expected to continue to lift
NE tonight while another band over western ND moves into the
Devils Lake region later this evening. Between these two bands,
most of the area should pick up a dusting to around an inch or so
of snow tonight into Sunday. Wind speeds will stay fairly gusty
into the evening before decreasing a little bit. A boundary will
move from west to east across the area late tonight into Sunday
and will switch winds from the south to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Sunday night to next Saturday...Models in overall good agreement
with the expected evolution of the weather this next week as the
above normal temperatures end with the first push of cold air this
season. Details during the transition continue to be outside of a
predictability interval to lead to high confidence, so soon to
pinpoint exact locations and snow totals. Confidence is increasing
with the placement of measurable snow occuring across the northern
half of the forecast area with the Devils Lake basin the to have the
most impacts with winter weather conditions starting Monday late
afternoon into Tuesday as snow and blowing snow are expected to
affect the area. In the wake of the system the coldest air of the
season will filter into the northern plains with 850mb temps falling
to minus 15 to 20C. This will result in max temperatures falling
from Monday highs in the 30s to highs around 10 above for Wednesday
into the end of the week.

The weak and rather brief period of 500mb ridging will break down as
a broad long range trough works into the Northern Rockies and then
eastward Sunday into Monday. Associated SFC low pressure will
develop in western ND and move east with snow developing on the
front of the system as WAA takes place. More intense precipitation
is expected on the backside of the SFC low in the deformation zone
expected to track across the Devils Lake basin. The model solns
remain spread out with the EC and SREF quicker and weaker than the
stronger GFS and NAM solns as a result placement and amount of snow
remain in flux.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Some light snow continues over KBJI, but other sites are seeing a
bit of a break before the next band of snow starts moving in from
07 to 10Z. There is the possibility of some FZDZ in between the
two snow bands, but recent obs have not shown much sign of this so
will keep it out for now. Ceilings are IFR except at KTVF which
has been hanging onto MVFR but should start to go down in the next
hour or two. Snow band looks fairly light so will keep vis around
3-5SM. Some of the models try to develop fog behind the snow band
but think 300-700 ft stratus is more likely at this point so will
keep vis up for now. Conditions will begin to recover to MVFR and
then VFR very late in the period. Winds will shift from the south
to the west at 10 to 15 kts.




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