Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 272334
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TIMING OF THUNDER CHANCES MAIN CHALLENGE. BROUGHT T INTO DVL
AROUND 07Z...VALLEY SITES 09-10Z AND LATER FARTHER EAST. WITH LATE
ARRIVAL NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE HOLDING TOGETHER AS
LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS OTHERWISE VFR. STRONG WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE DVL BASIN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER


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