Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 040254
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
954 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LTG STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ALONG BAND OF WEAK ECHOES OVER
THE FAR NW FA SO WILL INTRODUCE SOME ISOLD POPS REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. EARLIER ECHOES HAVE WEAKENED OVER NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW
MN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HAVE ADDED ISOLD T THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY REGION FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. GETTING A FEW LTG STRIKES IN SMALL
CLUSTER OF MAINLY ACCAS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HOT AND HUMID AIR CONTINUE OVER THE
CWA...WITH MANY LOCATIONS SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 5000 J/KG...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE 14 C RANGE...A STOUT CAP IS
IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AXIS IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY...BUT CU IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MANY
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING CONVECTION AND HAVE STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 18Z TODAY WHICH DIDN`T HAPPEN. WITH THE
CAP AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FORCING...WILL LEAVE THIS
EVENING DRY. THINK THAT TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
BIT OF STRATUS AND MAYBE PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVE IN AND
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SHOULD SET OFF SOME PRETTY STRONG
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLY ON BUT IMPROVE TO NEAR 40 KTS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK SO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF SEVERE FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT ON FRIDAY AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO MORE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOTS OF
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE COMES
THROUGH...SO HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT ENTER WESTERN ND UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH
OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA SO KEPT HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AS 500MB LOW NORTH OF THE CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING THE EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN. THEREAFTER
A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLGT CHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 15C WILL SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
MONDAY TO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

T DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN VALLEY HOWEVER SO ISOLD DID
NOT MENTION IN ANY TAFS. OTHERWISE CHALLENGE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL
BE ST/FG DEVELOPMENT AS REGION REMAINS IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FROM NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON
POTENTIAL. DID NOT BRING IN ANY IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDANCE CLOSELY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER


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