Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211904

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
104 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Issued at 104 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Lowered the high temperatures a few degrees across the southern
Red River Valley, as the recent snowfalls have inhibited warming
across that region. Sunny skies will continue for the rest of the
afternoon with highs in the single digits in the Devils Lake
Basin, the low teens across the Red River Valley, and near 20 in
the forested areas of Minnesota around Bemidji.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Weather impacts confined to hazardous wind chills this morning as
temperatures are in the single digits below zero. Westerly winds
across eastern North Dakota ranging from 10 to 15mph are creating
wind chills in the 20 to 30 below range. Surface high pressure
will track south of the FA with westerly winds weakening and
turning to the south under mostly clear skies. Temps should rise
into the single digits above across the Devils Lake basin with
mid to upper teens in the eastern and southern zones.

Tonight temperatures should be a bit higher than the previous
night and thus wind chills remain in the 10 to 20 below range,
just warmer than the 25 below criteria for advisory conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Thursday and Friday... Quiet weather and high pressure with near
normal temperatures until the next system approaches on Thursday
afternoon. Recent NAM and CMC runs have been trending this system
farther north. The GFS has been sticking with lower QPF and keeps
snow mostly in northwest Minnesota. This difference is tied to
different evolutions and placements of the surface low. The GFS
keeps this low farther away than the NAM and CMC which leads to the
lower snow totals. CIPS Analogs using the GFS 75th percentile also
suggest that higher snow totals are possible. The best chance for
snow is in northwest Minnesota and southeast North Dakota. There is
potential for banding with NAM having frontogenesis in southeast
North Dakota and west central Minnesota.

Saturday through Tuesday night... The next chance for snow comes
Saturday as a surface low moves into the Midwest. There are a
variety of solutions in the models at this time for this event which
leads to a lot of uncertainty. The GFS takes this low up into
Minnesota which gives the support for snow across eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Other models keep this low and its
precipitation farther away. Past this system quiet weather is
expected with near normal temperatures though this period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

VFR conditions will continue across the area for the remainder of
the forecast period. Winds will be from the south or southwest,
and will become lighter overnight, and will slowly pick up in
speed again tomorrow morning.




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