Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1148 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

latest HRRR and HRRR-EXP has toned down precip chances overnight
as they were quite overdone earlier. 850 mb jet increases to 35-40
kts after 06z with nose of it more toward ncntrl MN (Bemidji-Grand
Rapids). It is possible the current small area of convection rides
this jet overnight. Elsewhere hard to tell if anything will form.
Did lower 30 pops to 20s but feel a low chance is at least


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Forecast challenge will be shower and tstm chances tonight into
Tuesday. Until any of this activity develops in the early to mid
evening, it will remain quiet. Looking like elevated convection
will get going with the low level jet during the evening. 850mb
winds show a convergent boundary setting up from near Jamestown up
toward the Lake of the Woods region. There is decent south-sw flow
meeting some sort of northerly flow. The high resolution model
guidance shows shower and thunderstorm activity initiating in the
00-01z time frame, and keeping some of this activity around
through the mid to late evening. After midnight, the low level jet
focuses more into the Bemidji area. Therefore, after midnight,
there should be better chances around the Bemidji area. The latest
SPC day 1 outlook has expanded the marginal risk area to include
areas along this boundary, so a few strong to severe storms may
be possible. The low level boundary sags southward during the day
Tuesday, pushing the pcpn chances to areas mainly along and south
of highway 200.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Tuesday night through Friday...west to northwesterly flow aloft
continues over the Northern Plains with several weak shortwaves
moving through. Frontal boundary will be just to the south of the
CWA, and the track of the weak shortwaves have most of the heaviest
QPF values staying to the west and south. However, there will be a
continued chance for at least some storm development Tuesday night
and again during the afternoon hours Wednesday and Thursday, mainly
over the southern counties. Temperatures should be fairly seasonable
in the upper 50s/low 60s for lows and near 80 for highs.

Saturday through Monday...500mb heights start to rise Saturday as
some brief upper ridging builds in for Sunday. Even with the ridge
building in there is still potential for weak shortwaves to come
over the top of it so will keep low POPs going. Better chances for
more widespread rain will come in Monday as flow returns to a
southwesterly direction and the deterministic models are in good
agreement with a surface trough coming out into the Northern Plains.
Temps and dew points will be slowly rising through the weekend and
by Monday will be back into the 80s to near 90 for highs.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

VFR thru the pd. Main issue is wind shift to the north which will
drop south thru the overnight and Tuesday morning -- past Bemidji
and toward Fargo Tuesday mid morning. Convection limited to just a
mention at TVF and BJI as VCTS as these two stand best chc.
Otherwise mid level based cumulus and some high clouds thru the


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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