Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1237 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Issued at 949 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

AM update focuses mainly on sky cover, with much of the CWA
clear...the south and southeast seeing thin cirrus erode...while a
lower deck is invading from Manitoba. Not sure how far south this
will make it before those clouds begin to erode as well, but have
brought them into NE Grand Forks county by noon. This obviously
will have impacts on temps...however high res models across the
south are about 2 deg cooler than current forecast advertises.
Will watch these areas through noon before lowering temps as this
cirrus is thin and may clear out...helping highs rise into the
mid- rather than low 40s.

UPDATE Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The visibility at Gwinner has improved since 4 am, and is now much
closer to the visibilities around it. Therefore, still am not
seeing any areas in dense fog, but more in the 1 to 3 mile range.
Still think this will continue through at least mid morning.
Seeing another band of lower clouds moving southward toward the
Canadian border, which is not being handled that well by the
models. Will keep an eye on it, as it may drop into the far
northern FA, but not sure how much further it will get after the
sun rises.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Fog is the main short term forecast challenge. As of early this
morning, the fog was thickest in Sargent County, where Gwinner has
been reporting vsbys less than a quarter mile since about 11 pm.
However, it does seem to be localized around Gwinner as nearby
observation points do not have vsbys quite that low. For that
reason will hold off on a dense fog advisory, unless more points
in that region drop that low as well. Otherwise, fog seems pretty
common south of a line from Gwinner to Fargo North Dakota to
Thief River Falls to Waskish Minnesota, where vsbys generally
range from 2 to 4 miles. With the steady north flow, thinking the
fog will stay in the ranges it is at now, but there could be a few
spots that get lower.

Clear skies have spread into the Devils Lake to Pembina region,
but this area did not pick up much rain yesterday, so fog will
probably be more spotty there. Highs today will depend on how
fast the fog lifts and also how fast the other clouds go away.
Models seem consistent in showing this to be by mid to late
morning, with highs similar to those observed Thursday. Looking
like winds will get down into the 5 to 10 mph range again tonight,
so there may be fog development again. At this point will not add
it to the forecast, but will brief the next shift about the

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Fairly weak sfc pattern holds over the FA Saturday through Sunday
night. Models still indicate the next chance of pcpn arriving
across the western Devils Lake region late Saturday night, with
spotty chances elsewhere Sunday into Sunday night. None of this
will result in much accumulated precipitation.

A quiet and seasonably mild stretch is in store for much of the
upcoming week. Upper air pattern depicts a well defined split flow
with southern branch showing most of the action as low closes off
vcnty southern plains on Wed and heads toward lower MS valley Thu.
Meanwhile a weak shortwave or two will transit northern plains,
bringing just slght/chc pops in form of overnight wintry mix and
daytime rain. Temps will feature highs from the mid 40s to mid 50s
(the warmest at end of period) with lows near or a shade above


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

MVFR deck over NE NODAK has advected into TVF/GFK/DVL and do not
expect it to push as far south as FAR. IFR at DVL should rise this
afternoon. CU beginning to develop across much of the previously
clear areas and should take a diurnal trend and dissipate early
this evening. Main question becomes how much the stratocu that
pushed in from Winnipeg will dissipate and impact esp DVL/GFK.
Expectation is we will see improvement and clearing by late
evening, with areas to the south and east becoming clear by mid
evening. Wind will become light and fog may become an issue
tomorrow morning, however with east winds not confident enough to
go anything below MVFR and mist.




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