Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230547

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1147 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Little additional changes needed. Large clearing area over much
of the Red River valley and northwestern MN expanding into west
central MN. Meanwhile do have some clouds re-entering far NE ND
from Manitoba. Other clear areas exist around Devils Lake. Overall
expect some increase in more high based stratocu or higher clouds
overnight into Thursday morning. Still looking good for limited
fog potential as airmass coming in is drier.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave over southeast ND with a
jet on the south side or over SD. Visible satellite loop
indicated clearing over north central ND. So expect some clearing
overnight mainly northern valley. Radar indicated rain and snow
over the southern zones mainly south of a line from Kelliher MN to
Valley City ND. Precip was moving to the east southeast at 15 to
20 knots. Precip should move out of the area this evening.
Precipitable water decreases overnight. Little change to temps
for tonight and Thu.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

On Thursday night through Friday, a strong Colorado Low brings heavy
snow across the Central Plains. Fortunately, a majority of the
operational models agree that this system will bring less than an
inch of snow, if any, across the far southern Red River Valley and
adjacent portions of west central Minnesota. If any snow showers do
develop, gusty north winds will likely reduce visibility in these
areas. Additionally, with temperatures falling through Saturday,
gusty north winds will bring wind chills as low as the single digits
below zero on both Friday and Saturday mornings. Temperatures will
bottom out Saturday morning with lows in the single digits to middle

Over the weekend, temperatures will be near normal values for
February with highs in the 20s to lower 30s. With a few shortwave
disturbances passing through aloft, could see some light snow
showers or flurries throughout the weekend, but little impact is

Looking into the middle of next week, several models indicate strong
Colorado Low moving through the Plains. While confidence is low in
this system`s track at this time, blended model guidance does
indicate better chances of measurable precipitation over the
forecast area so will stick with this for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Expect a mostly VFR sky and vsby fcst thru the pd. Have some drier
air moving south and this is helping to clear out the MVFR clouds.
Some additional 4-6k ft agl clouds moving in from Manitoba and
some high clouds as well and suspect we will see a sct-bkn low end
VFR deck at many spots thru the pd. Winds northerly 5 to 12 kts
becoming more northeast Thursday.




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