Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 291450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
950 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

Issued at 950 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Pretty weak surface features this morning, so it is hard to find
the cold front over southern Canada. Models show the front better
at 850mb, or somewhere around the Manitoba lakes region north of
Winnipeg. Here the current visible satellite imagery shows an
irregular line of fairly weak convection extending from the
Manitoba lakes back west-northwest into western Saskatchewan. This
east-west front is forecast to drop into the northern FA during
peak heating today, then is expected to drop into the southern FA
during the evening. The best mid and upper level winds lag well
behind the front, holding around the stronger short wave over
central and northern Manitoba. They also dive from western ND into
eastern SD. Between these two areas the forcing is weaker, but
yesterday showed that plenty of thunderstorm activity can form
despite this, as there was a lot of tstm activity over southern
Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Think this should begin to
fire this afternoon, with most of the morning remaining quiet.
Forecast had these elements covered, but did increase pcpn chances
a little where the front is expected to be this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Water vapor loop indicated a weak short wave from southern MAN
and along the Red River. Fog loop/surface ops indicated mid level
clouds over eastern ND/northwest MN with short wave. Water vapor
indicated another short wave over southeastern ALTA with
thunder/showers over northeastern MT. ALTA short wave expected to
move across the southern zones this afternoon. Yet another upper
level trough was over northern SASK/MAN and will move across the
forecast area on Thu.

Precipitable water increases up to about an inch and a quarter for
this afternoon/evening. Higher values move in from the north today.
Surface front forecast to move out of Canada this evening and sweep
across the area Wed night. Precipitable water will decrease to
around half an inch by Thu afternoon and remain around half to three
quarters of an inch for the rest of the period.

MU Capes run around 2500-3500 j/kg this afternoon/evening but bulk
shear remains relatively low. Convective temps were in the mid 70s
north to the lower 80s south. Expect storm to develop by late
morning or early afternoon in the north.

After SASK/MAN upper trough moves through, northwest flow remains
for the rest of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Saturday through Tuesday...Models are all in decent agreement on the
overall pattern, with a change back to more active weather as flow
becomes more zonal and then southwesterly by the end of the period.
There are differences in weak shortwaves moving through and
therefore the timing of precip. Given the time of year and
dependence on mesoscale features that are unresolvable by the global
models, will keep the blended solution that has a 20-40 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms most periods. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above seasonal averages.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Fog loop/surface obs indicated VFR conditions were across the area.
Some mid and high clouds were over the Mn side this morning. Expect
high clouds to continue moving east. Expect cumulus to form this
afternoon with insolation. Cold front expected to move through
tonight and may bring some IFR conditions to the area.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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