Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201813

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
113 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Adjusted POPs for current radar trends. Shortwave trough is still
digging down out of north central ND and could generate some
showers across our western counties with fairly good lapse rates
this afternoon, so kept some low POPs going. Think we could get
some patchy fog formation with clearing later tonight and winds
dropping off, so adding that into the grids.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Split flow aloft remains over North America with northern
stream over central/southern Canada and southern stream over
the states. Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough
over west central MN. Another upper level short wave was
located over southwest ND. Also an upper level trough was
located over central SASK.

Radar indicated wrap around precip near the FAR area and
into northwest MN. Precip will slowly shift east today.
Another band of rain was located over central and
western ND with SASK trough. The precip will also shift
east into the Devils Lake basin and weaken/dissipate

A cold front will move out Canada Sat and bring the next batch of

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

On Sunday and Sunday night, a developing warm front stalls along the
ND/SD border. This boundary, combined with weak shortwave energy
aloft, looks to produce enough lift for small precipitation chances
across the area, with better chances in the southern zones. Model
agreement is poor on the timing/location of shortwaves and resultant
cloud cover and temperatures, but expect most precipitation near sfc
boundary would fall as light rain.

The best chances of area wide precipitation exist Monday and Monday
night as a surface low moves just to our south. The models are in
good agreement with the track of this system, departing from the
Rockies Sunday night, moving northeast from southwest SD to central
MN Monday, and exiting toward northern WI by Tuesday. With cooler
temperatures and lack of instability, thunder and heavy rain are not
anticipated, but expect rain totals from this system of less than an
inch at this time. As cold air moves in behind the departing low,
wrap around precipitation could bring temperatures to near freezing
Monday night, so cannot quite rule out a brief period of wintry mix
at northern zones. Behind this system, expect a cooler but dry
period by Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal from Sunday into the
middle of next week with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Some MVFR ceilings hanging on in some spots, but should improve in
the next few hours as skies begin to clear. With clearing skies
and light winds, there could be some patchy fog formation later
tonight. For now just have KDVL going down to 1SM as they are most
likely to clear out and have light winds, but the more eastern TAF
sites are not out of the question to see fog and will be
evaluated during later issuances. Winds will drop down from the
north to become light and variable.




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