Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 252018
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
318 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

500 mb low moving north-northeast and at mid afternoon located
northeast of Winnipeg. Water vapor loop showing drying aloft
wraping around the upper low entering the Red River valley and
have seen winds pick up a tad more with 40+ mph gusts and
sustained winds 30 mph at a few sites around Grand Forks and
fargo. Until now the strongest winds have been Devils Lake to
Cooperstown to Valley City where winds are still in the 30 to 45
mph range.

Will allow wind advisory to go til 00z.

Also will hang on to higher pops late aftn/early eve into the
northern RRV and NW MN as another area of showers now dropping
back southeast around the upper low across northeastern ND.
Otherwise followed short range model blend approach to cloud and
precipitation which does slowly bring the showers to and end in
the nrn RRV this evening and Monday morning in the far eastern
fcst area. Clouds clearing eastward overnight but not clearing in
Bemidji-Baudette areas til Monday aftn. Lows in the low-mid 40s
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

After the 500mb low pushes into the Great Lakes, the Tuesday through
Friday period will feature ridging and dry weather. Normals for late
September are generally in the mid 60s for highs and low 40s for
lows. Temperatures through this period should be near or a little
above these readings. The pattern shifts to southwest flow aloft by
the upcoming weekend and the models show quite a bit more spread
into their solutions by then. Guidance threw in some low pcpn chances
and will keep them as is for now. At this point, any pcpn for the
weekend would be minimal. Weekend temperatures continue to look
similar in the near or just a bit above normal range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Issue is winds and ceilings today. Cold front and northwest winds
moving thru TVF at 18z and will reach BJI mid aftn. Otherwise
northwest winds 20 to 35 kts sustained with gusts over 40 kts at
times RRV and E ND thru 00z. Ceilings in the MVFR rangte with
local IFR in rain showers. Skies gradually clearing from west to
east overnight...though clouds holding on at Bemidji thru 18z Mon.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Godon/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle


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