Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 291436
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET DAY OVERALL. ONE THING TO WATCH IS THE
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER
MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL ND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BREAK OUT A
LITTLE LIGHT PCPN OVER CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR FAR NORTHWEST FA. AT THIS POINT WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT FOR THE NEXT
UPDATE. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE SUN TODAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE WESTERN COUNTIES WERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO AND WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME
PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH MORNING...MAINLY IN THE WEST AND AREAS
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN VALLEY WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE THE
LOWEST. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AND HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS WE MAY AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SPOTS OF
PATCHY FOG FORMATION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS WINDS PICK UP JUST A BIT AND MIX 850MB TEMPS IN
THE TEENS C.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE. MODELS SHOW SOME SIGNS OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE
THURSDAY. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH AND HAS DECENT QPF OVER THE
VALLEY...BUT THE GFS IS DRY AND THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND FURTHER EAST. PLACEMENT OF SUCH MINOR DISTURBANCES
THIS FAR OUT IS TOUGH...SO FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THE 20 POPS WE
HAVE GOING FOR OUR NORTHEAST CORNER AND MONITOR FOR NOW. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IN CONSISTENCY FOR THE EXTENDED
WITH 500MB NW FLOW ALOFT AND SLOWLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILE AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE INFLUENCE FELT BY THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED POCKETS
OF CHC THUNDER THRU THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHC FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TIED TO RIDGE RIDER AND POSSIBLE FROPA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 TO 10
KTS AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR






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