Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1134 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Made some minor cloud cover adjustments through the overnight.
Otherwise a wide range in temperatures from the upper 30s to
around 50 so left minimums as is.

UPDATE Issued at 930 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Forecast on track with Ci advancing across the fa which will hold
temperatures up compared to last night. No changes needed.

UPDATE Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

No update needed.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Temperatures will the main issue for the period along with onset
of rain.

The surface high pressure will move further off to the east
tonight, leaving a bit more pressure gradient than we had last
night. Even with continued very dry dew points across our eastern
counties, think there will be enough mixing to keep us out of the
teens tonight. There should also be increasing high clouds over
the southern counties as the upper low over the southern Rockies
moves out into OK/KS. Continued to keep lows in the upper 20s to
low 30s.

Tomorrow, the main upper low will continue to spin over the
Central Plains, with the surface low lifting northeast. The models
are in decent agreement on some precip starting to enter the far
southern CWA Sunday, although with very dry air in place it will
take a while for saturation to occur and anything to reach the
ground. For now have POPs ramping up during the afternoon, across
the southeastern counties. The clouds and incoming precip will
keep the southeastern counties below the 50 mark while the
northwest will see more sunshine and could again push 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Sunday night and Monday...the main upper low will be lifting
through IA and into the Great Lakes, with the surface low passing
by our southeastern counties. There should be a decent pressure
gradient with breezy north winds across our southern counties on
the north side of this system. There is not a lot of cold air
already in place to work with unlike the last system, but models
all have a stretch of below freezing 925mb temps thanks to
dynamic cooling with the low pressure system. Model soundings have
soundings saturating and then dropping below freezing overnight
across our southeastern counties, and there is good lift from
850mb frontogenesis along with the synoptic forcing. With snow
falling at night and the possibility of some decent rates again,
think that accumulation will be possible. Some of the ensemble
runs have over 10 inches at PKD and other sites, but this seems a
bit excessive. Still some uncertainty but with the possibility of
at least 3-6" and some higher amounts not out of the question,
will go ahead and put out a winter storm watch for the southeast.

Monday night through Saturday...By Monday night/early Tuesday morning,
the main upper low responsible for the early week system should
be pushing off towards the upper Great Lakes and taking the bulk
of its precipitation chances with it. Following this system, upper
ridging will quickly build into the far western CONUS with
northwest flow setting up for our area on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Minor precipitation chances for this period still look reasonable
as several work waves pass through the upper flow. Impacts should
be pretty minimal with temperature profiles suggesting mostly

Dominant upper ridging will then build into the central portion of
the country by the end of the work week and start of the weekend
with more spring-like conditions hopefully returning.

Temperatures will continue to slowly moderate throughout the end of
the week reaching around normal values by the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. Will see -ra moving
into southern portions of the FA towards the end of the period
however timing still uncertain with model differences.


MN...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
     for MNZ024-031-032-040.



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