Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201752

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1152 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

A seasonably mild day with only slight tweeks needed to wind
temperature and skycover forecasts... otherwise there are no
significant updates planned for the forecast package through early
afternoon. An updated Aviation Discussion is attached below.

UPDATE Issued at 652 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Few changes needed. The areas of fog in the Bemidji-Park Rapids
area has diminished greatly as mid/high clouds move in.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Skies generally clear over west central into central MN at 09z and
in this clear area fogged as formed. Otherwise mid clouds over E
ND keeping temps a bit higher and preventing any fog formation.
The clouds should move ENE and into the fog area during the pre
dawn hours and this may help supress additional fog formation.

For today this band of mid clouds moves through then clearing over
the nrn fcst area with a good deal of sun expected this aftn.
Colder than Friday with highs around 30. Farther south high/mid
clouds to hold longer and a bit warmer. Any snow chances south of
the fcst area with activity moving thru central into east central

Tonight mostly clear north to give way to additional increase in
in high level clouds. Mid/high clouds remain in the south. Far SE
parts of the fcst area (Grant co) brushed with a risk of light

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Guidance continues to suggest the northern edge of snow from the
developing Midwest low staying just south and southeast of the CWA
Sunday night into Monday. Although it is worth mentioning the 06Z
NAM has trended a touch further north closer to our area. With such
a dramatic gradient in snowfall amounts expected with this event,
interests in far southeastern North Dakota and west-central
Minnesota should continue to monitor the forecast for potential
impacts Sunday night into Monday. Both deterministic and ensemble
guidance has shown good consistency and clustering over the previous
24 hours regarding areas that hold best chances of seeing
significant accumulating snow. These chances currently stay south of
the forecast area. Still, a slight shift northward would bring snow
chances into southeastern counties. Breezy winds are still expected
to form Monday, although they should remain on the lighter side
under 25 mph. With marginally elevated winds and a crust now on
current snow pack, little to no blowing snow is expected Monday.

A small, weak clipper moving into the Northern Plains out of
southern Canada continues to be advertised late Tuesday into
Wednesday. This could bring a quick shot of light snow to the

Attention then goes to a potential system developing over the region
late in the work week, possibly into next weekend. There are some
signals within CIPS analogs and GEFS members of an area of
widespread accumulating snow for portions of the Northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest with this potential system. Still, guidance
needs to be resolved much further before mentioning placement,
timing, and amounts of precipitation.

Warmer to slightly warmer than normal temperatures are expected
through next week with highs generally in the 20s and lows in the
single digits to teens. Warmest days are expected to be Thursday
into Friday as an upper level ridge axis moves over the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Expect VFR conditions across the area today and tonight ...with
scattered mid to high level clouds and light westerly winds. By
Sunday morning expect to see mainly VFR conditions with steadily
increasing mid to lower levels clouds and winds turning from the
northwest along and south of the Highway 200 corridor... in
response to a winter storm system moving into the Central Plains.




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