Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Refined PoPs along the narrow rain band which has saturated from
western sargent and ransom counties to the northeast into the fargo
moorhead area. Rest of the forecast unchanged.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Short wave and associated surface low will track across SD today.
Model guidance in good agreement in developing a band of rain
across the south half of the FA in zone of frontogenetic forcing
aided by exit region of upper jet. Just where this band sets up
across the south will determine where higher pops will eventually
be but for now will maintain chance pops. Maximum temperatures
should be fairly uniform with clouds across the south with warmer
thermal profiles but more sun over the cooler north.

Rain band will continue this evening until forcing diminishes
after midnight. Coolest temperatures tonight will be across the
far north having better chance of clearing with clouds holding
temperatures up across the south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Will maintain some low end pops Tuesday as weak wave crosses the
region although confidence not very high. Column continues to
gradually cool resulting in temperatures closer to average.

Midweek looks quiet with temperatures dropping a bit blo average.

Long wave trough over the Gulf of AK weakens and shifts a little
east through the period. Downstream long wave ridge and trough
amplify a bit through day 5 over western North America and eastern
North America and shift a bit to the east by the end of the period.

The GFS was faster than the ECMWF through the period. The ECMWF was
trending farther south while the GFS was vacillating around. Will
blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures on Thu. Fri, Sat and Sun highs
were increased a degree or two from yesterdays forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Band of rain beginning to impact the FAR terminal CIGS and VSBY
expected to stay above MVFR criteria. Band may reach into the BJI
area this afternoon will continue with a VCSH there until more
certainty develops.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hoppes/Voelker
AVIATION...JK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.