Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Thunderstorm activity in central and western ND doing about as
expected with severe cells diminishing in number and activity
developing southeastward in a broad but intense 850 mb warm
advection zone into northern and eastern Iowa. Meanwhile more
showery/light rain weather moving into north central ND and this
will be the activity that moves east overnight into Wednesday
morning into the northern half of the RRV and northwestern
Minnesota. Activity will continue to move into a drier airmass as
it moves east and thus continued diminishing trend expected but
still some light rain showers moving into nrn RRV late tonight/Wed
AM. Main sfc low and energy shifts south and southeast Wednesday
at the sfc-850 mb level. 500 mb upper trough weakens some as it
moves thru northeastern ND and northwestern MN but still enough
moisture for some showers at times over the fcst area.

UPDATE Issued at 705 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Tweeked pops a bit to get rid of some spurious ones. overall idea
is for northeastern Montana into southwestern North Dakota to
continue to develop and move southeast. More general showers and
thunderstorms currently in srn Saskatchewan will move east-
southeast and into northeastern North Dakota later tonight. Going
fcst has this general idea as well as social media messaging.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Water vapor loop indicated upper level ridge over the western
Dakotas. Upper level trough was over southern ALTA and was moving
east about 40 knots. Upper low forecast to move across the area
on Wed and produce showers and thunderstorms.

Satellite continues to show a band of mid level clouds above 13
thousand ft over the southern zones. Good low level moisture
transport northward is expected mostly over the ND side for tonight
and Wed. Moisture axis shifts southeast on Wed.  Marginal risk of
severe storms over the far western zones overnight. Main threat will
be hail and wind. Storms over MT are expected to move east/southeast
and across the western zones late tonight. POPs were adjusted.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Wednesday night through Tuesday...SFC high pressure will bring a
drier stable airmass to the area for Thursday and Thursday night.
South winds begin early Friday with increasing moisture advection
and instability bringing a thunderstorm chance to the region Friday
PM into Saturday morning. Given the combination of instability
combined with approaching strong short wave energy and bulk shear
strong to severe storms are expected...see SPC day 4 and 5 outlook
for more info. By Sunday short wave occludes in S Manitoba and may
bring showers southward in wraparound PCPN band to the northern
third of the FA. These showers will linger in the east into the
first half of Monday. Temperature wise this will cool the northern
plains from the 80s expected Friday and Saturday in the east to the
cooler less humid airmass for Sunday through Tuesday with highs
in the 70s and lows in the mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Area of showers moving east into eastern ND with a few
thunderstorms skirting Devils Lake and maybe Fargo through 12z.
Otherwise mid and high level moisture as airmass below 700 mb is
very dry. Sfc winds generally to east. As low passes by Wednesday
winds to turn a bit northerly esp at DVL and this may bring down a
period of MVFR cigs but otherwise latest trends is to keep cigs
Wednesday VFR. Showers at times.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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