Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 202025
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
325 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Partly sunny conditions with isolated showers in eastern ND
tapper to mainly cloudy conditions with scattered to numerous
showers in northwest and west central MN this mid afternoon.

A low pressure system now pushing into the western Great Lakes
has spread a broad stratocu cloud shield back across Minnesota and
into the the eastern Dakotas. This system should continue
tracking eastward into southeastern Ontario through the evening
and overnight hours...with the remaining backwash pattern and
associated low cloud deck exiting northwest and west central MN
during the early evening hours.

Overnight...expect clearing skies and light north winds as a
cooler and drier airmass advects into the Red River Basin.

Sunday morning...surface high pressure should be centered over
the Valley...with light and variable winds and seasonably cool
temperatures. As surface high pressure slips eastward across MN
during the day... expect a light south to southwesterly flow to
develop... ushering in a return to a more summer-like airmass for
the coming work week.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Main issues will first be high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday
followed by precipitation/storm chances later on Tuesday.

The work week begins with a ridge of high pressure moving off
towards the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as low pressure develops
across the northern Rockies. Moderate return flow will set up across
the area with southerly winds of 15-20 kts on Monday and Tuesday.
12z model runs are in good agreement with 850 mb temperatures
surging into the 20-25 C range across the Devils Lake basin on
Monday and pushing eastward on Tuesday. Therefore, increased high
temperatures 3-5 degrees generally across the board for the first
half of the week. Conditions look to be dry through Monday except
for maybe a stray shower or two across the Minnesota lakes region.

The focus then shifts towards the return of more widespread
precipitation chances later on Tuesday. As the previously mentioned
low pressure system propagates towards the western Dakotas, it will
drag a cold front through the region Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Models continue to be in good agreement with the timing of this
boundary, entering the western forecast area 18-21z and exiting to
the east after 06z Wednesday. Instability looks to be sufficient,
along with particularly steep lapse rates, ahead of the front.
However, any appreciable shear looks to lag behind the front. Strong
to severe storm chances will need to continue to be watched as
Tuesday approaches.

Some wraparound precipitation in cooler north/northwesterly flow
appears possible across the north for Wednesday and Thursday with
temperatures back down into upper 60s and 70s. Additional
precipitation chances are possible heading into the weekend as
another system swings through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Midday heating has reached convective temperatures across most
areas...so expect areas of MVFR CIGs to steadily lift to near VFR
levels with scattered showers persisting through the afternoon.
Showers should increase into the southern FA through 21z and
decrease across the north as drier northerly flow moves in from
southern Manitoba. Expect showers to diminish in the south and
southeast FA through the late afternoon. Fair skies and light
north winds expected during the evening and overnight.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...Gust



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