Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180242
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT OVER WITH THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH
SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. NO ADDITIONAL EASTWARD WATCHES WILL BE
ISSUED. THEREFORE PLAN TO UPDATE FORECAST AROUND 10 PM AND REMOVE
SEVERE MENTION. COVERAGE OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS
REALLY DIMINISHED AS WELL SO WILL SCRAP THE LIKELY WORDING AND GO
WITH MORE ISOLATED/SCT WORDING. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST ANY OF THE
REMAINING ECHOES WILL GET. SOME OF THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE DRYING THINGS UP AS IT REACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY SO
NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON MUCH RAIN IF IT ACTUALLY GETS HERE. ALSO
SEEING THE LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE MOVING EAST AROUND SUNDOWN NOW
EXPANDING BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE WILL ADD MORE CLOUD COVER TO
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. FINALLY SEEING SOME
FOG OVER THE EAST AND SE FA. WILL MENTION THIS CONTINUING UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AND SEE THEN IF IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE LATE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV LOOP ROTATING OVER
EASTERN MT WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SFC
TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING DOWN INTO WESTERN ND WILL ARRIVE IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. TOWERING CU AND STORMS HAVE STARTED TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
NOT BE AS MUCH INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA THANKS TO PERSISTENT
CLOUDS. THINK THAT THE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN IN THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN RATHER SPARSE ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST BUT THINK THEY SHOULD FILL IN A BIT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION LIKELY POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRETTY WEAK...AM NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE CHANCES OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT AS PWAT VALUES REACH THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY HEAVY CELLS GO OVER THE SAME ONES FROM LAST
NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S THANKS TO CLOUDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO MN BY MONDAY...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. ALL OF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO LINGER PRECIP EAST OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY AS A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN INTO
THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING THEM OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY PULLS FURTHER EAST. TEMPS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 70S BUT LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
HELP KEEP LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BRIEFLY INTO
THE PLAINS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN ND ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP
SOME QPF OVER THE FAR EAST...BUT WITH NO REAL FORCING TO WORK WITH
THIS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH AND
WEST OF US AND OTHERS BRINGING STORMS WELL INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS IN OUR WEST FOR NOW AND WILL
ADJUST AS NEEDED. KEPT HIGHS IN THE 80S AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME
DECENT SUNSHINE UNDER THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN
TRANSITION TO A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...ALTHOUGH
VARIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN DIFFERENCES IN THE ORIENTATION OF THIS
PATTERN...WHICH CONTINUES WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS EXTREMELY LOW GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE WETTER AND COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS TAF SETS TSTM TIMING. SO STILL EXPECT SOME
TSTMS TO REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL BE LEFT BY THEN SO WILL ADJUST LATER IF
NEED BE. QUITE A BIT OF UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER...SO AFTER THESE
STORMS ROLL THROUGH IT SHOULD STAY CLOUDY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHOWER/TSTM REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/TG
AVIATION...GODON






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