Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261555
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...NOT
SURE CLEARING WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN OR NOT. COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME CAUSING SOME MINOR ISSUES. FIRST...FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE REPORTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA SEEM MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
HEAVIER DRIZZLE/RAIN...WITH ONLY PATCHY AND LIGHTER PRECIP WITHIN
THIS FA. DID ISSUE AN SPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CAUSED BY ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND IF REPORTS BEGIN TO APPEAR
WORSE WILL CONSIDER AN ADVISORY. THESE RAIN/DRIZZLE REPORTS ARE
OCCURRING WHERE 925MB TEMPS ARE WARMER THAN -9C (SUPERCOOLED WATER
DROPLETS DUE TO 850MB-700MB DRY LAYER). USED THE -9C 925MB TEMP
FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AREA...INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...WILL ADD SCATTERED FLURRIES. COLD AIR ADVECTION/COLD
FRONT CAUSING WEAK LIFT. ALSO...ADDED HIGH POP/LOW QPF FOR THE
AREA ON RADAR WHERE WE CAN SEE -SN THAT SHOULD ACCUMULATE UP TO
0.5 INCHES. CONFINED THIS HIGH POP/LOW QPF TO THE CENTRAL
VALLEY...AND WILL CONSIDER EXPANDING IT SOUTH IF MORE CONFIDENCE
CAN BE GAINED. THINKING THESE STRONGER RADAR RETURNS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE VALLEY WHERE TOPOGRAPHIC FEATURES WILL AID IN THE
LIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHERLY FLOW IS RESIDENT OVER THE RED RIVER
BASIN AREA WITH A WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FA /FROM EASTERN SD ACROSS WCNTRL MN INTO LK
SUPERIOR/ AND BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVG TO THE AREA FROM
SOUTHERN SASK. PATCHY CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY FROM
SOUTHWEST MB INTO NCNTRL ND /VCNTY MOT/ WITH SFC TEMPS IN THAT
AREA HAVING DROPPED WELL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHUD PUSH WELL INTO THE CNTRL DKTAS TODAY WITH A
GENERAL THINNING OF CLOUDS INTO EASTERN ND THROUGH THE FORENOON...
AND PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NCNTRL AND
CNTRL MN CAN EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH
CONTINUED CLEARING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW AND
STEADY DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS NORTH
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES USHER IN A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE
SEASONABLY COOLER AIRMASS FOR SATURDAY. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWCOVER IN MOST LOCALES SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING
TOO QUICKLY... THOUGH MUCH COOLER AIR IS ENROUTE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SAT PM INTO SUNDAY...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR JUST BEGINNING ITS PUSH
THROUGH NCNTRL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS WE CAN
EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING... WITH STEADILY COOLING TEMPERATURES AND BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

MON THROUGH FRI...A COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MON AND TUE HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
RISE ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS BRIEF COLD SPELL WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WEST WINDS SET UP ON WED AND TEMPS CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID TEENS. THE NORTHERN TIER WILL BE IN A NW FLOW PATTERN
WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...HOWEVER A WEAK WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME AND BRING A CHANCE
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING TYPICAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WAVE. TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS WITH A COOLING TREND NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FORENOON ACROSS THE FA...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING EDGING INTO ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BY MID MORNING.
PARTIAL CLREARING EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN ND BY 18Z AND SPEREADING
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SCATTERED SKIES LATER IN THE EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST






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