Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 082109
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONVECTIVE SHSN/SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD POOL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALLEY WITH BRIEF VSBY DROP BLO 1 MILE IN STRONGER
SNOW BANDS. FEEL SHSN AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT SUNSET WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE VSBY. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING TO 00Z WITH SCHOOL
ENDING AND LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. NEXT FGF TEAM CAN EVALUATE FOR
ANY ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING CLEARING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH DIMINISHING WIND CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD WE GET. WITH
W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE WARMEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. CLOUDS
HOLD LONGEST OVER THE FAR EAST BUT IF THEY DO CLEAR OUT COULD SEE
MINIMUMS APPROACHING 10 BELOW. WIND CHILLS APPROACH ADVISORY
LIMITS BUT CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND MARGINAL VALUES WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORY.

TUESDAY COLD BUT MORE TRANQUIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO FAR NE
TO TEENS IN THE WEST.

REGION REMAINS IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE NIGHT. ZONE OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WILL LEAD TO BAND OF -SN DEVELOPING REACHING THE NW FA BY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR TEMPERATURES FALL WITH
THE NE AGAIN THE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AS BAND OF F-GEN FORCING AIDED BY UPPER JET MAXIMA SHIFTS SSE
WILL SEE ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND SPREADING SE GENERALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME FEEL 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE.

-SN WILL EXIT THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE NEXT. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHC
-SN IN SE ND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT A 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 5 TO 20 BELOW RANGE AND
HIGHS 15 TO 5 ABOVE...THE HIGHER TEMPS TO THE WEST AND LOWER VALUES
TO THE EAST. 500MB FLOW RELAXES SOME WITH A SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE TROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AIR AND A CHC OF SNOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COLD START TO
THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 20S BY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY 30
FOR MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGHLY VARIABLE VSBYS WITH SNOW SQUALLS AND BLSN IMPACTING GFK
AND FAR WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS...LIGHTER WINDS AT BJI...DVL AND
TVF WITH -SN THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. BLSN TO
TAPPER OFF IN THE VALLEY EARLY EVENING...GUIDANCE SCT OUT MVFR
DECK THIS EVENING ALSO...LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS BUT EXPECTING
CIGS TO SCT OR CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-
     008-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER


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