Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 240953
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES





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