Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 011134
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...CONDITIONS SEEM ON TRACK
FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS WITH WV LOOP INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERING MT. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ND TODAY AND
IMPACTING OUR CWA BY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS PRETTY WEAK BUT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT WITH MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SPITTING OUT SOME
PRECIP AS THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW
POPS GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY STORMS DISSIPATE. CAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY WEAK AROUND 30
KTS SO THINK THAT STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE. TEMPS SHOULD BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WITH A PRETTY DRY AIR MASS. THE MODELS
ALL BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND THERE IS SOME SFC CONVERGENCE AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS
GOING IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO
START WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO MT ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE GFS MOST PROGRESSIVE. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MAINLY WEDESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO
COME DOWN. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW
WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS AND EVEN WITH THE
COLD FRONT STARTING TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVING THROUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND GENERAL DECREASE IN STORMINESS. A DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT AND LOW-MID LEVEL CAA SUGGEST A BREEZY DAY. SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN QUICKLY FOR FRIDAY. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THEN KEEPING THE AREA PRECIPITATION
FREE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EARLY SEPTEMBER
NORMALS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES...BUT KBJI AND KTVF
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME CIGS AT 400-500 FT. THINK THIS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14-16Z OR SO AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR LATER TODAY
WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GOING TAFS
HAD SOME VCSH WHICH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT AS
THUNDER WILL BE PRETTY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR







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