Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 222030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
330 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The main impact tonight will be gusty northwest winds in the Devils
Lake basin region. Deep mixing to 700 mb combined with relatively
strong winds and dry air at low, mid, and upper levels of the
atmosphere has allowed for sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with peak
gusts near 50 mph in this region and lesser values through the
remainder of eastern North Dakota. Expect these windy conditions to
continue until late this evening when the boundary layer will begin
to decouple. Model soundings indicate that Friday will be breezy as
well, but a bit less than today with winds beginning to weaken aloft
and a bit more moisture in the lower levels.

Additionally, isolated to scattered showers will develop tonight in
the northern valley and Friday in parts of northwest Minnesota as
the main trough axis swings through and the upper low moves from
eastern Manitoba toward the Minnesota Arrowhead. With northwest flow
and relatively dry air aloft and at lower levels, expect only a few
hundredths of rain will reach the ground. With northwest flow,
increasing cloud cover into Friday, and positioning upstream of the
trough, expect cooler conditions Friday with highs generally
remaining in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The period starts out with the area still under northwest flow
aloft. Most of Friday night looks dry, with the models showing some
better chances for showers moving in on Saturday. This pcpn should
depart to the east Saturday night. Still could be a little shower
activity on Sunday into Sunday evening, before it finally dries out
for a while. Saturday still looks like the coolest day, with temps
rising a little more on Sunday, then closer to normal by Monday.

Ridging builds in for Monday into Tuesday, with highs Tuesday
looking much more summer like. As the ridging breaks down and the
flow turns more zonal by Wednesday/Thursday, models really diverge
in their solutions. However, a return to more active weather looks
to take place with chances for showers and thunderstorms again.
Temps look to vary a little, but should stay close to normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected through this evening, but ceilings are
expected to lower to MVFR late tonight, especially in northwest
Minnesota. Windy west-northwest conditions this afternoon and
evening, especially in central North Dakota and near DVL where
peak gusts will reach 40 kts.


ND...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006-007-014-



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